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No...your eyes do not deceive you. Just in time for the spirited final six months of the 2010 election cycle, the Wrap returns to its glory days as a five-day-a-week feature. Expect the Wrap to grace your evening reading list every Monday through Thursday, with a Weekend edition, to boot, coming up on every Saturday.

The good news for regular readers: spreading the campaign goodness over five sessions of the Wrap should also bring the word count back down beneath the 10,000 word threshold, meaning it can be read and digested in under an hour (and written in under three). Everybody wins!


FL-Sen: Crist Starting to Flex Independent Muscles?
There are a pair of interesting items out of the Sunshine State today. The first deals with a declaration from Florida Governor Charlie Crist that he intends to call a special session of the legislature to consider an amendment for the November ballot that would create a constitutional ban on offshore drilling in the state. Meanwhile, Crist apparently will make his declaration of independence official tomorrow by switching his party registration from Republican to Independent.

NC-Sen: New PPP Polls Shows Dramatic Democratic Gains In Burr Race
After months of relative stagnation in their battle to replace freshman Republican Senator Richard Burr, the two Democrats vying for the chance to battle Burr have all but caught the incumbent. This is according to new numbers from PPP, which has the Republican within the margin of error against either Democratic challenger. Burr leads Elaine Marshall by a single point (43-42), while his lead over Cal Cunningham is only slightly larger (44-39). This result, while exciting, could be owed in part to the increased attention on the Democratic side in the wake of the competitive primary here last week, which resulted in a runoff between Marshall and Cunningham.

NY-Sen: Marist Poll--Huge Lead, Middling Approval, for Gillibrand
This month's incarnation of the Marist Poll has some tough numbers for appointed incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, but the trial heat numbers continue to look very, very good for the Democrat. The Marist Poll claims that Gillibrand has a very middling 27% of voters think she is doing an excellent or good job. The plurality (roughly a third of voters) rate her as doing a "fair job". Only 14% think she is doing a poor job, however, and that might explain why Gillibrand has a large lead over all three potential GOP suitors. She holds a sizeable lead over Joe DioGuardi (50-30), as well as larger advantages over both Bruce Blakeman and David Malpass (52-28).

OR-Sen: Primary Poll Yields No Clear Frontrunner In Wyden Challenge
Not that this will necessarily serve as a surprise to anyone, but Ron Wyden appears to be a safe bet in next week's Oregon primaries, according to a new poll out from SurveyUSA. The poll has Wyden sitting at well over three-quarters of the Democratic primary vote. The GOP side, on the other hand is a bit more muddled. The poll has college professor Jim Huffman leading, but with only 20% of the vote. This is the same Jim Huffman that Rasmussen memorably (and somewhat unbelievably) had holding Wyden to right around 50% of the vote a few months ago.


HI-01: Poll Says Djou Easily Leads Divided Field
The mail-in special election to replace Democrat Neal Abercrombie (who resigned to focus on his gubernatorial bid) has already attracted over ninety thousand voters. And if a new poll from the conservative-leaning local website Civil Beat is to be believed, more of those votes will be going to Republican contender Charles Djou than either of his Democratic rivals. As every other poll has indicated, the combined Democratic vote in the district easily leads Djou, but it is now split evenly, all but ending Democratic hopes of holding this seat in the bizarre special election format. Djou leads in the poll at 39.5%, with Democrats Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa both sitting on 25.5% of the vote.

MI-01: Dems Coalesce In Stupak Open Seat
After briefly being a darling of progressives for her primary challenge to Rep. Bart Stupak in the midst of the HCR negotiations, Connie Saltonstall abandoned her Congressional bid yesterday, but she did not do so quietly. She ripped party leaders for what she described as an "anointment" of state legislator Gary McDowell. Another potential candidate, former state Rep. Matt Gillard, also left the race, but he endorsed McDowell on his way out the door. Multiple Republicans are also vying for the seat, as the filing deadline closes today.

MI-15: Dingell Back For Round Twenty-Eight
He has already served in Congress longer than roughly half of his House colleagues have been alive. And, now, it looks like the dean of the House, Michigan Democrat John Dingell, wants two more years in the House. The 83 year-old Dingell filed for re-election to his Detroit-area seat yesterday. He has served in the House since 1955, and can be expected to win re-election easily in his reliably Democratic district.

NY-13: McMahon Holds Big Lead, According to Internal Polling
The poll is a little dusty (in the field during the first half of April), but freshman Democrat Stephen McMahon is looking awfully good in his re-election bid, according to an internal poll conducted by the Global Strategy Group. McMahon leads former FBI agent Mike Grimm by a 56-23 margin, and also leads former Bloomberg aide Michael Allegretti by a similar 56-24 edge. Of course, let's keep in mind, people: the poll did not include potential NY-13 GOP challenger Vito Fossella.


AL-Gov: The Holy Crap Television Ad of the Cycle
Taegan Goddard has caught wind of the most amazing political attack ad of the year. The target of the advertisement (which was an independent expenditure hit) is Republican Bradley Byrne, and it is an absolute doozy.

So...ask yourself: which is worse? A political attack ad in 2010 mocking a candidate for supporting the idea of teaching evolution in schools, or the candidate-in-question feeling the reflexive need to attack the premise by highlighting his desire to teach only creationism in the schools?

FL-Gov: McCollum Next To Get Bennett-ed?
Bill McCollum doesn't need to even look to Utah for a presumptive GOP incumbent being morphed into an also-ran. He can look in his own home state, where the same dynamics drove Charlie Crist from the party. And, from the looks of things, McCollum might be next. Hospital mogul Rick Scott, who entered the race last month, is already being fairly brutal in drawing contrasts between himself and the longtime GOP gubernatorial frontrunner. In a new radio ad, he draws a sharp line on the issue of immigration, embracing the controversial Arizona law that McCollum expressed no small amount of distaste for. A Mason-Dixon poll released last week showed Scott surprisingly competitive with McCollum, holding him to a 38-24 lead.

NY-Gov: Cuomo Dominates GOP Field With 60%+ Of the Vote
The new Marist poll out of New York also polls the gubernatorial race, and shows Democratic state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo obliterating the GOP field. With 65% of voters finding his job performance to be excellent or good (with only 6% saying he does a poor job), Cuomo leads all three Republican hopefuls by a two-to-one margin or better. Suffolk County Executive (and recent GOP convert) Steve Levy does the best, but "best" is a relative term on this one: he trails by a 63-25 margin. Former Congressman Rick Lazio (65-25) and businessman Carl Paladino (67-22) fare even worse.

OR-Gov: Gubernatorial Frontrunners Clear in SUSA Poll
SurveyUSA also follows up their poll (which was actually an April poll released a little while back) with another poll in Oregon, and they find the frontrunners on both sides to be reasonably well established. On the Republican side, former NBA ballplayer Chris Dudley now holds a double digit lead over Allen Alley (42-24). The balance of the GOP field all rest in the single digits, leaving the impression that this will be a two-man contest. On the Democratic side, it still appears largely to be a one-man contest, as former Governor John Kitzhaber has a thirty-five point lead over former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (59-25).

PA-Gov: Is There Real Tightening In Dem Primary?
One gets the growing sense that there could be some movement in the Democratic primary to replace outgoing Governor Ed Rendell. Whereas Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato had a lead of close to thirty points just a handful of days ago, that lead in the Muhlenberg tracking poll (PDF File) is now under twenty points. Onorato still leads handily, however, with 33% of the vote. Anthony Williams is standing pat in second place with 15% of the vote, with Joe Hoeffel still a fairly distant third at 10%.


Rasmussen actually was incredibly silent today, as they only had one-campaign related poll today. The poll, however, is a real beaut. It doesn't cover the 2010 elections, but looks ahead to 2012. And let's just say that if Sarah Palin is the GOP standard bearer in 2012, apparently even Alaska would come into play potentially.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:00 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Joe DioGuardi will probably... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dwayne, felldestroyed

    drop about 10% after the American Idol finale.

    •  any chance of polling Colorado (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      any time soon?
      Politico thinks Michael Bennet is the 2nd most likely to lose as an incumbent.

      Appointed Sen. Michael Bennet suddenly finds himself in an awkward position thanks to Colorado's byzantine Democratic Party nominating process.

      Two months after losing the local Democratic caucuses to challenger Andrew Romanoff, Bennet appears to be the underdog in the upcoming May 22 state party assembly — a showdown that will determine top billing on the Aug. 10 primary ballot.

      Bennet has already launched a petition-gathering drive — a move designed to ensure that he earns a place on the primary ballot in the event he doesn’t hit the 30 percent threshold at the assembly

      he has a worthy primary candidate in Andrew Romanoff.

      H.D. Thoreau "What's the use of a fine house if you haven't got a tolerable planet to put it on?"

      by wade norris on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:08:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Special Session -- with That Move (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Big Tex, mdmslle, felldestroyed

    ex-Republican, about to be officially Indie governor of Florida moves to the left of President Obama regarding offshore drilling.

    How long can our president let that stand?

    "ingratiation and access . . . are not corruption." -- Justice Kennedy (Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 2010)

    by Limelite on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:03:40 PM PDT

    •  More Seriously -- Crist is Responding (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, mdmslle, felldestroyed

      to Sen. Bill Nelson who urged Crist to "ban, baby, ban."

      One is curious.  Does this response suggest Crist, if elected, would caucus with the Dems in the senate?

      Oh well, if Scott's elected governor after Crist removes, he'll support offshore drilling.

      Rick Scott, the Republican flooding TV airwaves in Florida, said today that he would oppose a constitutional ban on offshore drilling that Gov. Charlie Crist wants lawmakers to put on the November ballot.

      As for McCollum, he's firmly astride the fence with a foot in both greener pastures.

      Attorney General Bill McCollum, the front-runner in the GOP primary, say he opposes offshore drilling but wants a loophole in the constitutional amendment to allow for safe drilling in the future.

      Crist is trying to move the issue out of the hands of Florida politicians and into the hands of voters who seem more readily disposed to ban the drilling in the wake of the BP disaster than do the state's politicians who are more supportive of it than the folks they represent.  Make that should represent.  Obviously the politicians represent the interests of Mega Oil.

      Way things are shaping up, offshore drilling may be the issue that decides the governor's race.  Or not.  Immigration is beginning to hit its stride, but is far more explosive among the right wingers in the state, considering the Cubans have mandated illegal immigration and Cuban American voters are some of the rightest of the right.  Tricky business.

      "ingratiation and access . . . are not corruption." -- Justice Kennedy (Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 2010)

      by Limelite on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:19:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ya but did you hear about rubio's complete flip (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, LordMike, Limelite, dwayne

        on immigration law in AZ?


        he's now pissed off the cubans.

        first he said he had concerns about its legality and that it might lead to profiling. (He was joined by JEB! in this position)

        then he started backtracking but saying that AZs action was only necessary b.c the federal government failed to act

        then, when that wasn't enough red meat for the baggers, he backtracked fully. FULLY! saying that illegals should be rounded up (and their US born kids), the border should be secured and they should all be deported. Immediately. When asked about the kids who would have to live in a country they've never been to, he said "yea, it might be weird for them for a while. but they'll adjust. theyll be surrounded by loving family."

        I shit you not.

        The conservative Cubans (which are the OLDER ones. The younger ones are actually liberal) did NOT like that response, even though they are not subject to these type immigration laws.  So I'm not sure how many of them he's lost with his pandering. The old cubans are stubborn as hell.

        Rubio is undisciplined and shoot off his mouth before he speaks. Which is good.

        Don't tell me what you believe. Tell me what you do and I will tell you what you believe. h/t MeteorBlades

        by mdmslle on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:28:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And He Are One (0+ / 0-)

          Rubio is the C-A favorite son.  Chalk up another irony to the crazy year in politics.

          "ingratiation and access . . . are not corruption." -- Justice Kennedy (Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 2010)

          by Limelite on Wed May 12, 2010 at 02:32:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  yes he's going to do it (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Limelite

      everyone was hoping he would and he will.

      the truth is Crist has been vocally against offshore drilling MOST of his political life, the exception being the month or two he was trying to get on the McCain ticket. That was the same month he got married, too.  Just sayin.

      Fact is, crist is going to be our new senator. I support meek and have donated to him even but I just no longer see a way to beat this very popular governor and skilled politician. Calling him a flip flopper and opportunist is really not going to work on the majority of the electorate here in FL.  Outside of hard partisans, I mean. Floridians just LIKE the guy and he has mastered the art of coming across as sincere and concerned about Florida.  And in fact, he has made sure to make very public over the years his actions that fall OUTSIDE the party platform.  As I said, he's smart and calculating and hugely popular.

      Don't tell me what you believe. Tell me what you do and I will tell you what you believe. h/t MeteorBlades

      by mdmslle on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:21:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, mdmslle

        Crazy year, isn't it?  We have the Democratic president endorsing the ex-Republican senator of PA over a bona fide Democratic candidate, and we have Crist moving to the left of that same Democratic president on off-shore drilling.

        I stand amazed.

        I'll vote Meek, knowing Crist will sweep into office.  I get the feeling Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson would not be displeased.

        "ingratiation and access . . . are not corruption." -- Justice Kennedy (Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 2010)

        by Limelite on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:25:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Crist is Very Skilled (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Limelite, mdmslle, KingofSpades

        I dont really think Meek will be able to siphon of his DEM support especially if it appears the Crist is the only candidate who can stop the nutty Rubio.

        Crist is very popular in vote rich South Florida and Central Florida...that is where this particular election will be won.  According to Rasmussen, Crist has an approval rating of 62%!  If his rating is anywhere near that in November he will win easily.

  •  in Alaska, it would depend on her VP (4+ / 0-)

    since they know the VP will get in after she quits in about two years.

  •  i'm so sick of Scott Brown ads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    John DE

    oops, Rick Scott (hey rick, even though i see you on my tee vee like 30 times  a day, apparently didnt remember your name)

    he's annoying the crap out of me. I just hit MUTE. He keeps talking about Obama and I;m like, "WTF are you running for federal office or are you interested in being Governor of the state of Florida, asswipe?"

    He's annoying.

    But beatable.

    But then so is Bill "also-ran-revisied" McCollum.

    Don't tell me what you believe. Tell me what you do and I will tell you what you believe. h/t MeteorBlades

    by mdmslle on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:15:13 PM PDT

  •  Gov TX race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    White seeks to tie Perry stimulus refusal to higher business jobless taxes
    Austin American-Statesman - Jason Embry - ‎1 hour ago‎
    Democrat Bill White wants to poke a hole through Gov. Rick Perry's low-tax bona fides by highlighting recent tax hikes on businesses to ...

    by divineorder on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:16:40 PM PDT

  •  WOW the Alabama ad on Byrne (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    You have got to be kidding me. That should get national play... My G-d what year is it? 1100?

    "No Groin.... No Krav Maga" - The Simpsons

    by volleyboy1 on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:29:02 PM PDT

  •  Reid is reaching out to Crist... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    dialed him up for a chat yesterday or the day before.  Also I recall reading that the White House tried to cut a deal with Crist months ago.  I know Rahm sort of poo-pooed the idea, but I think it's a case of helping Crist establish his indie bonafides, because if he was seen running to the Dems he'd be another Specter.  

    Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

    by Jonze on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:35:49 PM PDT

    •  Reid Wants His Vote (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades

      in the Senate.  He knows that the GOP has ostracized Crist and so he is opening the path for Crist to caucus with the DEMS in 2011 if he wins.

      •  Crist seems like a pretty reasonable guy... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, flhiii88

        I sometimes think Obama is trying to rebuild the Republican party, or at least getting moderates into their ranks that he can work with and give the Conservadems cover.  

        Hoevan in Dakota will be a reasonable guy to deal with, Brown in Mass needs to vote with Dems a heckuva lot between now and 2012, Snowe will be up for re-election in 2012 and I suspect if she doesn't retire she'll run as an indie right off the bat.  

        I do worry that Crist will just get in tight with his buddies Graham, McCain and Lieberscum and the four will try to run the senate being the kingmaker to many votes.  

        Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

        by Jonze on Tue May 11, 2010 at 08:48:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Likely (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          He will try to play the role of independent voice in Senate.  In fact Lieberman encouraged him to run independent.

          But the important thing will be getting him to caucus with DEMS.  As long as a DEM is Majority Leader then his and Leiberman's ability to cause havock is lessened.

          It Crist is elected I look for him to be angling himself for his entire term for a run for President in 2016.  He is always on the look for a better gig.

        •  Brown will have a very tough race in 2012 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Competent Democrat beats competent Republican in MA most of the time. He's only there because KKT's sister ran.

          Snowe will also have a tough race if a right-wing, Club for Growth primary challenger runs against her. She probably could still win the general election comfortably, but would face the biggest challenge in the primary.

          •  I think if that happens... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            ...she retires.  She's been there a long time and has done a lot while she's been there.  She's no spring chicken and would have a terrible time winning a GOP primary. The tebaggers just wrote the state's GOP platform.

            DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
            LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

            by LordMike on Tue May 11, 2010 at 11:44:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Disagree (0+ / 0-)

            I think Brown wins easily.  He has gotten off to a good start with an approval rating over 70%.  And he has over 6 million and counting waiting in his campaign bank account.

            All he has to do is vote for the major DEMS iniatives like climate change, financial reform, etc and he will be fine.

          •  I could see Snowe running as indie... (0+ / 0-)

            right out of the gate.  However I believe she is in poor health and could be looking to retire.  

            What does the Dem bench look like in Maine?

            Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

            by Jonze on Wed May 12, 2010 at 01:49:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Obama trying to rebuild Republican Party? (0+ / 0-)

          Now THAT makes sense, given the huge advantages he's given them over the past year! The master of "3-D chess" has single-handedly resuscitated a party that the public was ready to flush down the toilet 15 months ago.

          Too bad he didn't decide to rebuild his own party!

        •  He wants a strong GOP to spar with (0+ / 0-)

          He wants to triangulate his way to a second term.  There is a reason why he barely lifts a finger to elect other Democrats.  We will have to fight our own President to win the 2010 elections.  

  •  Crist may take some folks to politics school. n/t (0+ / 0-)
  •  If we blow HI-01 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    singe, TheEqualizer

    I will hold Abercrombie responsible, and will donate to his primary opponent for Governor. It was incredibly irresponsible of him to resign his seat.

    •  if we run two isn't that a sure loss?n/t (0+ / 0-)
    •  It Was (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      flhiii88, TheEqualizer

      Hawaii DEMS are apparently so arrogant they are willing to blow this special election and Abercrombie didn't have to resign.

      I think DEMS will find it a lot tougher to win this seat back in November after the bloody DEM primary that won't happen until Sept!  DEMS are being fools letting the very likable Djou get in office.  If he wins big in the special he will be a lot tougher to get rid of in the fall.

      Just plain stupidity by the DEMS all around in Hawaii.

      •  Yep (0+ / 0-)

        Both Democrats just HAD to stay in this race.  Now we are paying for it and will probably pay for it for several years.

        •  Unfortunately (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          savvyspy, TheEqualizer

          One of them could have dropped out of the special election and just run for the primary in Sept when it became apparent that the seat was in jeopardy.

          Let me just say that I blame Hanabusa more in this case.  Her numbers in the district are really not good and she would be a very poor candidate to take on Djou in the fall.  I know many here don't like Case but he can win...and he is a Democrat.  He has been wrong on some issues like Iraq but he is the only candidate who can beat Djou in the fall in my opinion.

          Why did DEMS just have to bring this nonsense on themselves.  I am so pissed by this mess.

    •  I Am Of Two Minds On That.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Not the easiest thing in the world to fly from DC to Honolulu for campaign appearances. Nice little 11-hour flight every time you want to campaign.

      And if he had left DC to campaign more often? His opponent would hit him for being asleep on the job in DC while all this critical stuff is going on.

      The bigger crime is this silly system for special elections which gives an artificial edge to the party that manages to clear the field for their preferred candidate. How much harder would it be to advance the top party vote getters to a runoff? It's an all-mail election, for petes sake.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue May 11, 2010 at 09:03:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't do that. (0+ / 0-)

      Abercrombie is far more liberal than his opponent, Mufi Hannemann.

  •  GQ Comment (0+ / 0-)

    Will MI-1 Dems sit out the race?  You betcha.  I notice the anointed candidate has nothing to say about repro rights on his website.  Does Gary McDowell plan to run as a stealth candidate on this issue after the Stupak storm?

    Don't look back, something may be gaining on you. - L. "Satchel" Paige

    by arlene on Tue May 11, 2010 at 09:02:33 PM PDT

    •  Shame on the Democrats for sitting out on this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      because they didn't get what they want.

      Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

      by Micheline on Tue May 11, 2010 at 09:25:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They got what they wanted... (0+ / 0-)

        Stupak was booted out...

        DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
        LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

        by LordMike on Tue May 11, 2010 at 11:45:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Women Should Take One for the Team (0+ / 0-)

          Maybe we should tell the segregationists to come back, all is forgiven, too.

          Don't look back, something may be gaining on you. - L. "Satchel" Paige

          by arlene on Wed May 12, 2010 at 05:27:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Stupaks's Wounds Self-Inflicted (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Until healthcare, he always kept a low profile on the issue of choice.  As an example, in his home town of Menominee, every year on the weekend of the Roe v. Wade decision, the local crisis pregnancy center holds a rally in front of the county courthouse.  The courthouse is right across the street from his office, yet, he has never managed to clear his schedule to appear at one.

          When C Street "encouraged" him to be the Democratic point man for the Stupak Amendment, it was all over.

          Don't look back, something may be gaining on you. - L. "Satchel" Paige

          by arlene on Wed May 12, 2010 at 06:10:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  NC-Sen - amazing what a contested primary will do (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, LordMike, licorice114

    Marshall is benefiting from the free press and name recognition from finishing at the top of the primary.  Once she dispatches Cunningham in June, the polls will start to mean something.

    Marshall can't win in a GOP wave year, but if the Dems shore up nationally, look for an Elizabeth Dole repeat.  Burr not terribly well liked in the state, and if Marshall runs a good campaign and doesn't have to fight a major headwind, it could be a Democratic pickup.

  •  Good news in PA-12 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
    LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

    by LordMike on Tue May 11, 2010 at 11:47:12 PM PDT

  •  Are Dems TRYING to lose it all? (0+ / 0-)

    The imminent loss of the Democratic seat in HI may not cost the Dems their majority in the House, but only because they are likely to lose several more seats than the Republicans need to regain control of the House. It's unimaginable how stupid Obama and the Dems have been with their huge Congressional majority.

    Charlie Cook, Feb 27 2010:
    "Some observers argue that if the Democrats pass some kind of health care reform bill, scaled down or not, they would appear less ineffectual and would change the current thinking that they have wasted the better part of the past year and come up empty-handed. That sounds plausible, but only if the public's perception of the Democrats' health care plan changes significantly. Democrats have not exactly been winning many perception battles lately. And in the end, would they really help themselves by enacting something that most voters say they don't like and don't want?"

    Democrats still, after a million years of losing elections they should easily win, haven't figured out that marketing trumps all. It's been obvious for a while that they are too stupid to hold power. Now it's becoming clear that they really are too stupid to govern.

    •  Obama wants Democrats to lose the majority (0+ / 0-)

      So he can "triangulate" his way to a second term.  It is sickening and sad that we have to fight our own President to win this election.  

      •  It's a far out theory. Obama's (0+ / 0-)

        second term is threatened by nothing so much as a Republican majority in the House that will impeach him, investigate principals of his administration, and stall all legislation designed to improve the economy.

        It's impossible to see how a Republican majority in either chamber IMPROVES Obama's reelection chances.

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