Most of you don't get it....and how could you...CNN...MSM....BBC... all report a very skewed take on the protests and politics here. I've lived here for 8 years and follow the politics here very closely. If I find the Kos Community interested, I can provide more details and links and answer questions in comments.
For now...I just want to give you my own take, as a liberal, progressive American resident and active business person living in Thailand. (Born in NY, long term Hawaii resident...now 8 yr Thai resident)...very different from what you are hearing and reading.
I am really sorry for all the typos, run on sentences, partially completed thoughts...but for those interested in Thailand and want to get a much more detailed...though certainly opinionated view of the events....I tried to get a lot out and would never finish if I try to perfect it. All I want is to provoke more thought and for you all to know that the media hasn't a clue what is going on here. Please feel free to correct facts if you find errors and ask questions in the comments. I will try to respond as best I can.
By the way....Phuket is lovely, you'd never know there was anything going on other than waves breaking on the beaches.
Who's who and What's the heck is going on in Thailand?
First...its all about Thaksin...yes there are other important players....but its all about him. He was one of Thailand's wealthiest business men...was elected Prime Minister and later accused, charged, prosecuted and found guilty of corruption....with more cases against him still to be decided.
Thaksin from A to Z : This wealthy business powerhouse and power broker who was elected PM by the majority of voters in 2000 in hopes of him guiding Thailand forward in its economy and helping make the country independent of IMF and International debt.
a. By law he was required to rid all his business investments before taking office. During the election he hid most of his investment shares in the names of his children, housekeeper and secretary....was caught...begged forgiveness on TV and was still elected.
b. Slowly he began acting more and more like a tyrant...shutting down or suing any media that criticized him. Accused of buying "parliamentarians" for 1 million dollars each.
c. Example: Started a one month war on drugs. Gave the police carte blanche to kill any drug dealer with impunity. Over 2000 extra judicial killings over the next 30 days, including women and children. Amnesty International and other human rights organizations were outraged. The highly corrupt police simply killed all their competitors and many innocents in the process. It was horrible. Not one police was ever investigated.
d. Example: Ordered the police to round up several hundred demonstrators in the South, demonstrating for more autonomy in their former independent Kingdon (200 yrs ago) with their predominantly Islamic religion, Malay language and culture. Many who were rounded up were simply by standers. They were handcuffed behind their backs, dragged and thrown into waiting police vans, face down, piled in layers, driven 6 hours to a prision....83 were dead on arrival. No investigation, no punishment or accountability.
e. Example: Thaksin continually placed his relatives and cronies into top positions in police force and military and top government posts.
f. Any Thai or foreigner living in Thailand saw him slowly try to take complete control of the country. it was obvious to everyone. Even his supporters saw it but felt that he would use the power to help them and the country.
g. But....he also instituted 30 baht (one dollar) a month health care for all Thais. He also implemented some farmer loan programs which were very popular in rural Thailand. These moves made many farmers feel he was the People's PM....and this mantle Thaksin has tried to maintain and foster in the international community.
h. While he slowly lost the support of many of his early backers and most of the better educated academic and business community....his support in the rural north and north east grew.
I. He plowed millions and millions of dollars (not baht) dollars...into the top community, business and government leaders in these areas and also most feel rigged the next elections in a host of ways...some of which were investigated, and his Political Party Thai Rak Thai was disbanded by the Courts, for election fraud.
J. In spite of Thaksin lack real commitment to democracy..(2005 quote from newspaper, "Democracy is not important. Its only important that the people are happy". (Today, in exile, he claims with his Red Shirt followers to be the people trying to restore democracy.)
I. The final straw was when he orchestrated this smooth money/power grab: he pushed thru, with his majority in parliament, a change of national law allowing foreign company to own more than 25% of telecom businesses in thailand. The limit in the law was to protect the country from another country gaining control of its airwaves. He changed the limit to 49%. Oh...did I mention that years earlier had somehow managed to have the company granted the major telecom concessions in Thailand..Shintel was his company. One of every three phone calls in Thailand brings Shintel money. So...the day after he changed the law....he sold out of Shintel....to who?....to Temasek Holdings...owned by the government of Singapore. Thaksin made 2 billion US dollars overnight. Then then claimed he did not owe one baht, not one penny in taxes...because actually he "gave" all his shares to his son, daughter, sister and sister's husband at no profit. And when they sold, they were one time sales not subject to tax. This was too much for even many rural supporters. The money grab was too obvious to too many and at the expense of the interests in the country. (He had also just organized a loan of 5 million dollars to the generals in Burma at a time most countries were honoring a boycott of the anti democratic regime, and the generals spent most of the loan on buying telecom equipment from Shintel.)
K. Opposition grew dramatically to Thaksin's obvious move toward dictatorship and complete control of the country and control of every department of government. His response was to shut down more opposition media. This began the Yellow shirt movement.... a huge people's movement, peaceful with no provocation toward violence.....that lasted until the coup in 2006. (The yellow shirt movement can also be criticized for taking over the main government house and the national airport...these greatly inconvenience many others and caused business losses for many....but was entirely peaceful.)
L. In the midst of the demonstrations...Thaksin knew he still had strong voting power. He called a spot election within 45 days. The Democratic Party, the main opposition party boycotted the election, as they and other parties would not have time to compete. The election went ahead...in spite of this....but with widespread, well documented election fraud. Among other things, Thaksin's party was accused of forming straw parties to file for the election in many provinces, to avoid the requirement of receiving at least 20% of the vote in uncontested elections. In other cases the voting "ballots" were huge, with Thaksin on one end and all other candidates on the other. In other cases voting booths were turned around so that the Thaksin appointed proctors could see who was voting for who. The party was later found guilty by the courts of many cases of fraud and about 100 people, including Thaksin were banned from office for 5 years.
M. Leading up to the Coup...the Yellow shirt demonstrations were growing.... Thaksin was reported to be considering martial law, giving him the ability to squash the yellow shirt movement. One of his closest aids was caught on tape talking about how the monarchy was holding Thailand and democracy back. The military along with many in the country feared Thaksin would stage a coup of his own, pushing back the influence of the benign monarchy and the King, beloved by most Thais, and taking long term control of the country. Thaksin was quoted often as seeing the "elected for life" leaders in other SE Asian countries as his "ideal" government.
The week before the coup...the army and police began taking sides...who would be with Thaksin and who would stand against him. Then Thaksin left to NY to speak at the UN. While there he conducted daily video conferences with his inner leadership group in the armed forces and in the parliament and cabinet. Word was passed on.... by one of the attendees, who had grown concerned of Thaksin's meglomania....to General Sonthi of the Army..the supreme Thai military commander ...that Thaksin was sending in some agents to instigate violence during the following day's yellow shirts demonstrations.... and would use that as an excuse to declare martial law. Many Thai's in and out of the business, academic, and military communities felt that this would be the end of Thailand as they knew it. And the end of democracy in Thailand. Right or wrong...this was the thinking by many important leaders in the country.
N. The night before the planned violence by Thaksin....General Sonthi called on his trusted generals and police generals to be ready to take immediate action. Sonthi called Thaksin in NY and told him he knew of his plan. Thaksin promised to not implement martial law and not do anything to provoke violence. But two hours later Gen Sonthi learned that Thaksin was mobilizing some armed forces outside of Bangkok. That was it. Gen Sonthi called in regiments from various locations...they all began converging on Bangkok. Thaksiin called his army leaders loyal to him...and, as the Bangkok Post later reported...told them he needed them to go against Gen Sonthi...but they told him it was too little too late.. Gen Sonthi would have control of Bangkok and essentially the country within a couple hours. It would be a huge mistake to try any military operation against him. The coup took place without one bullet.
O. Thailand is 95% Buddhist, 4% Islam. General Sonthi is a Muslim. No western media ever even got this amazing fact out. He was Muslim, and he made to the top of the military and was seen as dedicated to the King and Country. He promised elections within two years, promised he would not run the country in the interim, promised to allow the people of Thailand to vote on a new constitution that would have more checks and balances to prevent someone like Thaksin taking too much control, and promised not to run for election when they were held. He delivered on all four promises.
P. Elections were held. But because of the fair mindedness and insistence of Gen Sonthi and former UN representative Gen Suruyud (who was acting President until the new election)....that very careful investigations and strict legal protocol was followed in pursuing all the accusations against Thaksin.....it wasn't until actually after the next free and fully open and widely participated election that Thaksin was actually charged with anything.
Q. In the interim two years....Thaksin was allowed to immediately return to Thailand after the coup. He was not arrested. In fact he mobilized for the next election. Poured hundreds of millions of dollars into his supporters, including paying about 200 baht per individual vote. ( I know, I have relatives who were paid, and others who refused to accept).
R. During the time leading to the new election, a new constitution was slowly developed with participation from political and academic leaders. But, for Thaksin, and others that were banned from office for 5 years....they don't like the new constitution and they have been wanting to throw it out including the ban on politicians involved in election fraud, as it prevents them from stepping back into political control again.
R. In the totally free and fair elections in 2008..in which all major and minor political parties openly campaigned....Thaksin still had enough political and financial power in the north and north east to have his new party, the Puea Thai Party, garner the most votes, but....importantly, not a majority. So, like what just happened in England...Thailand had a hung election. It required, as provided by law...the formation of a coalition government. The second most votes went to the Democratic Party. Several other smaller parters took the rest. After a short time Thaksin's Puea Thai party put a coalition together and their parliamentarians voted into office General Samak, a friend of Thaksin..(This is the Thai General that ordered the 1973 Monday massacre of college students.) Several months later he was forced to leave office because of business conflicts. But Thaksin's party still had its coalition. They voted in PM Somchai, Thaksin's brother in law, to the office of PM. He was PM for several months until he too, was disallowed to keep the office over an election fraud case. But....Thaksins's coalition still had the majority.
S. Meanwhile, the yellow shirt demonstrations were disrupting business and government...the tension was fierce...but there was no violence at all from the yellow shirts. PM Somchai ordered a forcable dispersal in which many were injured and some killed. This created a kind of breaking point in the body politic. The King's daughter attended the funeral of one of the women yellow shirt demonstrators that was killed.
T. The King asked the country to find a was to work together.
U. One of the minor political parties then decided to withdraw from the Puea Thai (Thaksin party) coalition....and formed a new majority coalition with the Democrats and two other smaller parties. They now controlled parliament. They voted in Abhisit Vejjajiva, as the new PM.
V. It is important to note that Thaksin and the Red Shirts absolutely approved of the elections after the coup and as long as their coalition maintained control, they said nothing of it being illegitimate or a product of the coup.
W. The Red Shirt movement started to develop force...being funded by Thaksin.
X. Thaksin's court cases finally wound there way thru the court system and he was found guilty of the first of several serious crimes. He was sentenced to two years in jail. He fled the country, rather than serve the time.
Y. The Red Shirts began staging demonstrations usually marked by violence provoked they provoked. The Police and Army tried to stay neutral, as many in the police were actually Thaksin (a former policeman) supporters. During one of their protests they raided the hotel location of the ASEAN countries annual meeting in Pattaya. The diplomats had to be flown out by helicopter in fear for their lives. Both Abhisit and Mr. Sondhi (not the general, but the key leader of the yellow shirts) had attempts on their lives.
Z. The Abhisit government has tried to resolve the crisis, but when the courts ruled two months ago on the Shin Tel/ Temasek case..and decided that Thaksin would lose all his profits from the Shintel sale (around 1.5 billion dollars...but would only get back his original principal of .4 billion dollars (quite a fair court ruling)....the Red Shirts..backed by millions of dollars that poured into the country, and suspected as coming from Thaksin....began their biggest demonstrations ever. Huge sums of money were offered to Red Shirt leaders if they could bring down the Abhisit government. Individuals who came to demonstrate in Bangkok were offered more than they can make in the fields, per day they were offered around 1000 baht ($30) and if they brought a car 2000 baht. (There are videos of these fees being explained and delivered to rural people gathering in the northern cities). These huge demonstrations started with 40,000 people but over two months have been reduced to 5 to 8,000. And it all started when one man, Thaksin, lost his money. That was the trigger.
Who are the other players and key issues:
- Red Shirts...You should understand this group from the above....Easy to think of them like Tea Partiers....lots of salt of the earth rural citizens with valid complaints...funded by a wealthy power broker..with his own agenda.
- Democrat Party... similar to Democrat Party in US, but more centrist. Currently leading the coalition government based on the free and open elections in 2008, two years after the coup.
- Puea Thai Party.... Party resurrected from Thai Rak Thai party of Thaksin Shinawatra. Formed a coalition government after the last election in 2008, but their coalition fell apart when the Bhumjai party withdraw and joined the Democrat Party, led by Abhisit.
- Abhisit Vejjajiva, the current PM. Educated at Oxford and speaks perfect English. Has demonstrated considerable restraint against the Red Shirts and Thaksin, in spite of attempts on his life and violent demonstrations and vocal commitments to commit violence by the Red Shirts. He has also struggled with a military and police force reluctant to use force against the demonstrations, due to mixed loyalties and sincere desire to avoid loss of life.
- Bhumjai Party and Newin. Newin formed the Bhumjai party, though he is personally banned from office for three more years. A former insider with Thaksin who brought alway delivered to Thaksin a large segment of votes from the north east. When he withdraw from the Puea Thai coalition and joined the Democrats...Thaksin finally lost power. This and his conviction on fraud pre-empted Thaksin flight from the country.
- Red Shirt Leaders... generally not too well know in the country before they were put into positions of leadership by Thaksin (and funded by him.) Their demonstrations became more and more bold over the past two months. Overrunning the police and stealing guns from them. Setting up roadblocks in various places and searching all vehicles. Invading a major hospital causing injuring to many patients. Essentially shutting down several blocks including over 10 major hotels and two large shopping centers...and hundreds of small businesses. Blockading many roads, using guns and grenades against the police.
- Gen Katthaya (Seh Daeng).. Army general run amok...Seh Daeng backs Thaksin. He is the militant side of the Red Shirt movement and very close to Thaksin. He has threaten violence many times against government and military leaders that do not back Thaksin. He is the self appointed "Security Chief" for the Red Shirts. He has threatend violence on several occasions and then gloated, but not admitted participating, in violent acts over the past several months, including bomb attacks, grenade attacks, and sniper shots at police from within the red shirt protest areas.
- Demands of Red Shirts.... Abhisit resign and dissolve parliament now. Amnesty for Thaksin and Red Shirt leaders. Thaksin get all his money back.
- Road plan to Reconciliation... Abhisit offered last week to hold elections in 5 months and dissolve parliament in 3 months (2 years before his legal term expires). The Red Shirts responded with mixed signals...some saying they agreed and others saying it was not enough. They finally decided that the Deputy PM Suthep, must deliver himself to the police to hear charges being made against him by family members of some Red Shirt demonstrators who were killed in a two sided conflict between the demonstrators and police on April 10th. Within minutes of their demand, the Deputy PM agreed to face the charges and defend himself and presented himself to the police. Then the Red Shirts made more demands...not wanting to wait for the parliament dissolution..they wanted it now. The Abhisit government said that was enough and stated that the demonstration area must be cleared by this evening or the police and military would take action. The Road plan by Abhisit was criticized for rewarding the Red Shirts violence....but most saw it as an effort to create peace and find a resolution for the country. He won wide spread support amongst those still "on the fence"...including many in the police and military.
Current Update tonight....
As of 6 pm, the government announced any persons still in the demonstration area must leave or face the rule of law. Water, electricity and cell phone service were to be cut off. Seh Daeng announced that he would fight to the end and was seen on video within the barricaded area with military weapons, prepared for battle. He was already indicted for previous acts of violence, with a warrant for his arrest, and the military already had announced he was being stripped of all military rank.
At around 7pm, a sniper shot Seh Daeng in the head. No one has stated their compliency. I suspect this was a government move...I am against violence, but I think the logic was that this one man was the source of almost all the violence, including the invasion of the hospital the week before, and that his act of violent defiance, armed and opening threatening the police and military, including resisting arrest warranted shooting him. This just happened and I don't know all the details yet. But he is in critical condition, but still alive.
Within one hour of the shooting of Seh Daeng, most of the other Red Shirt leaders (none of whom condoned violence openly like Seh Daeng) all resigned from the Red Shirt movement. I think the fear for their lives and see that the movement is essentially over and that the military and police are finally backing the government to stop the demonstrations.