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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/26-28 results)

Democratic primary, likely Democratic voters, MoE 5%

Blanche Lincoln (D) 46 (43)
Bill Halter (D) 37 (35)
D.C. Morrison 6 (7)
Undecided 11 (15)

Seems like much treading water compared to two weeks ago, both candidates have inched up. Lincoln will desperately try to capture enough of that undecided vote to get her above 50 percent and avoid the runoff. I'll call it right now -- she won't get to 50. I suspect she'll be around 44-45 percent.

Now remember that the Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Job Security have been spending millions in sleazy ads, while Lincoln herself has been hurling all manner of shit up against the wall, hoping something would stick. On the other side, labor unions have been pummeling Lincoln. And yet...

Favorable/Unfavorable among likely Democratic primary voters

Blanche Lincoln 61/35 (59/33)
Bill Halter 65/17 (66/14)

Halter still has the edge on favorabilities -- his trump card in the primary (and runoff). But beyond that, look a the trend lines. Primary voters are completely ignoring all the mud on the airwaves. The millions spent are having ZERO impact on the primary. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this.

Where it does seem to have an impact, however, is in the general, where the two Democrats slipped vis a vis their Republican foes. More on that in a bit, but first, the GOP race (first time we've polled it):

John Boozman (R) 46
Jim Holt (R) 19
Gilbert Baker (R) 12
Kim Hendren (R) 6
Other 4
Undecided 13

Boozman may end up in a runoff as well as Lincoln. In the general:

                           Dem +/-

Blanche Lincoln (D) 40 (42)  -14
John Boozman (R)    54 (52)

Bill Halter (D)     41 (42)  -9
John Boozman (R)    50 (47)

Blanche Lincoln (D) 41       -3
Jim Holt (R)        44    

Bill Halter (D)     42       -1
Jim Holt (R)        43    


Blanche Lincoln (D) 40 (40)  -6
Kim Hendren (R)     46 (50)

Bill Halter (D)     42 (43)  even
Kim Hendren (R)     42 (45)


Blanche Lincoln (D) 39 (40)  -6
Gilbert Baker (R)   45 (47)

Bill Halter (D)     42 (43)  even
Gilbert Baker (R)   42 (44)

Any incumbent in the low 40s is in deep shit, and Lincoln is particularly unliked in Arkansas. Her overall favorabilities are 39-55, which remain in "catastrophic" territory, and that includes a 38-59 rating among independents. Bill Halter is at 47-34, including 46-34 among independents. Democrats are far better off nominating the guy with the plus 13 favorability, than the negative 21.

Halter is even slightly more liked than Boozman, at 45-34.

While Boozman runs strongest against the Dems, he's likely our best general election foe. His 10-year tenure in Congress will make it impossible for him to run against DC. In a battle of entrenched DC insiders, Lincoln is toast. But Halter could run the perfect outsider campaign against Boozman. That's who I'm rooting for the GOP win.

Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe is beating his Republican opponent 62-19.

Haven't seen one of our guys winning a blowout like that in a while. Savor it.

Contribute to Bill Halter
Bill Halter for Senate
Jack Conway for Senate

Seriously guys, just a few more days until the primary. It's hard to bitch about bad Democrats in the Senate killing good legislation if you don't help punish the worst offenders. If we take out Lincoln -- certainly doable in a runoff election -- the message will be sent.

This is our chance to hold our party accountable. You sit on the sidelines, you lose your right to bitch about the sorry state of our party.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:00 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  The game should be to keep her under 50% for (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pompatus, Matt Z

    the sake of financial reform if anything.

    democrats are dragging their feet's on financial reform in the hopes that they would be able to wattered it down once Blanche clear her primary challenge. SHAME ON THESE MOTHER SUCKERS.

  •  may she get Bennetted. nt (0+ / 0-)

    Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

    by jalapeno on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:08:07 AM PDT

  •  Not good numbers for Poor Old Blanchey (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark

    Someone find her oats already.  Y'all on the Wreck List might get that reference (then again maybe not, y'all are Horde)

    Seriously, a well-known incumbent having to go to a runoff in a primary means that more of her OWN PARTY would rather have Someone Who Is Not Blanche Lincoln than her.

    Kill the filibuster!

    by sproingie on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:11:39 AM PDT

  •  This does point out a negative about primaries (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superribbie, Pozzo, kefauver, hardleftintx

    Both our candidates are dropping against the Republicans because the Democrats are attacking each other.

    The task is going to be for the Democrat to portray Boozeman as a tool of the corporations - which is much easier for Halter.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:12:48 AM PDT

    •  did you see their numbers before the primary? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      v2aggie2

      they were worse

    •  In Arkansas primary Dem v. Dem has no effect (0+ / 0-)

      Many, if not most, Arkansas Dems are party-line. They will support whomever wins the primary. There is no chance that anyone who would vote Dem at all would cross over and vote for Boozman if their chosen Dem didn't win the primary. They might not vote at all, but Boozman is on another planet from Dems. He (and his family) and their beliefs are well-known in the state. (Boozman's brother, an optometrist, lost a bid for Lt. Gov. under Huckabee when he said that "in his professional opinion" if a woman was really raped, she couldn't get pregnant because of "all of the juices going on then." Huckabee then appointed him head of the Health Dept.)

      Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber. ---Plato

      by carolita on Fri May 14, 2010 at 12:23:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Choices (0+ / 0-)

    In Arkansas there are choices. Here in Arizona we have nothing but mealy mouthed Republicans who go ever to the right and they cause lots of havoc with their stubborn stances. Oh My!

  •  KOS, Thanks for the Slate of Polling Data Today. (0+ / 0-)

    Someone wrote last week that Halter's unfavorables were going up. At 66/14, doesn't look like it to me.

    Not voting gets Republicans elected. Gloating about it on DKOS isn't helpful either.

    by kefauver on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:14:39 AM PDT

  •  my campaign ad would have had Lincoln (0+ / 0-)

    on one side of a penny and Halter on the other side.

    This is who she represents (just lincoln)

    and on the other side show America....this is who Halter represents.

    Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

    by jalapeno on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:18:07 AM PDT

  •  GOTV operations..... (0+ / 0-)

    Who does GOTV better in Arkansas?

    Unions or the US Chamber of Commerce?

    I am sure Blanche's henchmen will be out...but seriously...we have always talked about a well oiled GOTV operation being 2-3 percentage points....

    think about that.....

    Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

    by jalapeno on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:19:57 AM PDT

  •  Lincoln looks like she will win easily (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hardleftintx

    despite our best efforts.  Early on I wondered if Halter should keep his brand name intact for a challenge against the Republican six years from now (a long time I know) but I admire his courage to make the jump now.  Sadly, a bit of a lost cause.

    Politics is not only about how good the candidate is but how bad the voters are-- with a large percentage of voters in the exception (including some Arkansas Dems on DKos) that's just not a state where I expect to see good news.

  •  Donating and helping? (0+ / 0-)

    I'm using Act Blue with express account. Found Sen-KY Conway there, too. Donated.
    Already donated to Halter.

    So. . . . what about voter registration, getting out the vote? Who is doing that?

    I feel like a complete jerk sitting at my desk when there is so much to be done....and donating modest amounts of money doesn't feel like enough (compared to what the other side is always doing).

    Thanks.

    Media Reform Action Link http://stopbigmedia.com/

    by LNK on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:24:40 AM PDT

  •  I'm in for Halter. Mark from Cali nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pompatus

    "No people can be great who have ceased to be virtuous." Samuel Johnson, An Introduction To The Political State of Great Britain

    by Mark B on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:32:04 AM PDT

  •  Runoff would be 6/8 -- turnout? (0+ / 0-)

    Usually runoffs have lower turnouts than the primary.  Not sure who this would help or hurt.

  •  Just because D.C. Morrison is polling 6-7% (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hardleftintx

    ..doesn't mean he'll get that. They guy is a fruitcake who's managed to get himself in the wrong party's primary.

    Based on those numbers Blanche is better than even money to get her 50%.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:38:30 AM PDT

    •  I don't think so. (0+ / 0-)

      The work we're doing here on the ground keeps turning up pro-Halter statements and very little pro-Lincoln sentiment.  And we still don't know what turnout will be like as of yet...It's a tossup, pure and simple.

      Checkout Blue Arkansas: http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/

      by ARDem on Thu May 13, 2010 at 01:28:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  When would the runoff be? (0+ / 0-)
    Maybe she won't be able duck on strong derivatives legislation, after all.

    The GOP -- seeing that government by the corporate interests, for the corporate interests and of the corporate interests shall not perish from this earth.

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:41:14 AM PDT

  •  I've seen it. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    citizenx

    But beyond that, look a the trend lines. Primary voters are completely ignoring all the mud on the airwaves. The millions spent are having ZERO impact on the primary. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this.

    Casey-Santorum, 2005-06.  Once voters make up their mind about an incumbent, and have a decent alternative, the money is meaningless.

  •  If it's Boozman/Holt (0+ / 0-)

    Boozman could get teabagged and we end up with the guy who Lincoln AND Halter have both crushed in the past.

    Checkout Blue Arkansas: http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/

    by ARDem on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:51:41 AM PDT

  •  sorry for the off-topic (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    citizenx

    but swing state has a link to a suffolk poll showing SESAK up over arlen by 9(tell me i 'm not dreaming.......)

    i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

    by primaryarlen on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:51:51 AM PDT

  •  GOTT BELIEVE THOSE UNDECIDEDS (0+ / 0-)

    break heavily to halter

    i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

    by primaryarlen on Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:53:09 AM PDT

  •  It would have been nice (0+ / 0-)

    to have had a fraction of the front page support that has gone to Halter go to Jennifer Brunner, who would have had a good shot at winning in November.

    •  Halter can win in November (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Scioto

      I'm with you on Brunner-my heart goes out to her from Arkansas, but there's a big difference between Lee Fisher and Blanche Lincoln.

      And yes, Halter can and will win in November.

      Checkout Blue Arkansas: http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/

      by ARDem on Thu May 13, 2010 at 01:27:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Even a little Social Security cut will hurt (0+ / 0-)

    Halter.  He needs to leave Social Security alone.

    We didn't say Wealth Care, we said Health Care

    by relentless on Thu May 13, 2010 at 12:08:02 PM PDT

  •  is AR RW radio favoring halter over lincoln? (0+ / 0-)

    just wondering

    Progressives will lose all major messaging battles until they picket the limbaugh/hannity megastations and boycott those stations' local sponsors.

    by certainot on Thu May 13, 2010 at 01:16:15 PM PDT

    •  You're kidding, right? (0+ / 0-)

      They can barely say his name without spitting. The one's who aren't for bat-shit crazy Jim Holt (no, not as in tea party crazy -- he's way crazier than that) are for Boozman. If they have anything good to say about a Dem, it is about Blanche, though.

      Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber. ---Plato

      by carolita on Fri May 14, 2010 at 12:14:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  attacking dems is big part of their function and (0+ / 0-)

        they mess with dem primaries by attacking one more than the other.

        on a national level with limbaugh and sons that is often coordinated and the nationals often weight in on local races periodically.

        the local and state blowhards often have close connections to the state GOP and get "suggestions" from them.

        Progressives will lose all major messaging battles until they picket the limbaugh/hannity megastations and boycott those stations' local sponsors.

        by certainot on Fri May 14, 2010 at 08:41:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  BUT, who is Kos working for? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    v2aggie2

    AR is a state in the deep south, is it not?  The Democratic Party in AR has a considerable number of Black members, does it not?  Halter vs. Lincoln will be determined in a Democratic primary, will it not?  Halter could use a few votes from those Black Democrats who will cast ballots in the AR primary, couldn't he?  But one of his cheerleaders, a certain person who runs a "blog" that we all know about, went on TV and told the nation that the First Lady is "classless", did he not?  And he did so in the context of allegedly "supporting" Bill Halter, did he not?  Bill Halter has not disavowed that characterization, has he?

    Now what effect do YOU think having one of your "supporters", a person widely perceived -- true or not -- as being on the left fringe, tell people in the deep south, in a conservative area, that the First Lady is "classless" will have on those Black voters?  Do you REALLY think that having MoveOn, a group with which I personally am in general agreement, advocate for you in that climate is helpful?  Do you think it is in Bill Halter's interest to be seen as the radical left wing's candidate?

    While Bill Halter would, in my opinion as well, be a great improvement were he to somehow get elected to the Senate, which doesn't seem to tip the scales of probability in the correct way, he cannot vote on anything in the Senate before next January at the earliest.  But, unless President Obama wants to have everything that is as yet incomplete have no possibility of moving out of that column before next year, he has to be nice to the people who WILL vote, which means even Senator Lincoln.

    That is REALITY.  If you REALLY hope to see some kind of climate change legislation passed, you have to accept that REALITY and start asking HOW can we get this done?  How can we get the votes needed?  It doesn't happen by hoping for it or by thinking that people are going to "do the right thing" or that President Obama has a magic wand or a decisive "bully pulpit".  That is all wishful thinking.  President Obama is well aware of that.  It is how the political game is played.

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