This blog is about a world class deer caught in the headlights syndrome.
It is about climate change, yosemite exploding (a rare event but imminent in next 100 years or so) and big quake in California (imminent in the next 10 years) read on
On Dec 21,2012, the end of the mayan calendar, is when the planets will all line up, this has happened many times in history, but there is speculation that something else astronomical will happen.
The only significance of the Mayan calendar that is immediately obvious is that they knew astronomy, and could predict eclipses and planet line ups. the calendar ends with a planet line up. beyond that there is speculation that something else will happen then astronomically.
Stephen Hawking has said that it is rational to assume that aliens exist out there in space, but it would not be wise to contact them as they might plunder us for our resources..... aka avatar
Perhaps aliens will establish communication with us via the SETI program, or perhaps they will make contact only with certain individuals.
like arthur c. clarke said, any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
God's Brain, God delusion
Wolfram Hintzen
when the planetsline up this time, there will be exceptional gravitational force like a gravitational lense focused on the earth as it rotates.
These extra stresses might cause the yosemite dome to explode or blow. The last time this happened was 600000 years ago. We have no time series analysis to help us predict this, as the event is too rare. A black swan. It is rumbling at this very moment and has been for some time.
We can model the geology of the yosemite dome with sonar, and measure the temperature and pressure underneath through boreholes as long as our instruments do not melt. We can measure the seismic tremors and record them and analyze them for peaks and troughs and see if their are any periodic or resonant fluctuations like tacoma narrows bridge that might cause it to blow. with finite element models and stress strain geology 3D plots, we can simulate over time when, with pretremors it is likely to blow. unless the planetary lineup proves to much for the geologic structure. That event can also be simulated to see if it will or not then, there is a lot of work on this to do. If it bloes, the entire eastern seaboard including ontario and much of quebec will be covered in 6 feet of ash within a day or two of the event. We should probably build a steel inverted bridge structure over the dome to minimize the inherent resonsant modes and frequencies, and to weigh down and strengthen the dome to prevent an eruption. This is a major engineering challenge, which i believe PCL constructors could handle, or another equally competent structural and civil engineering company. Comsol software can be used to model this.....with finite 3D element modeling, given real measurements from the USGS.
Similarly from the southern california earthquake data centre, we can analyze time series of earthquakes there, and using advanced probability distributions like the levy distribution of Mandelbrot, and fractal brownian motion and monte carlo analysis using Mathematica or Matlab or Maple 14 we might just get a probability distribution in time of WHEN an earthquake (a natural quake, as opposed to one caused by the planetary lineup) would occur in time, especially if we do not try to predict where exactly. Trying to predict where, makes the WHEN less predictable, and trying to predict the when accurately within a 95% probability time window, makes the WHERE uncertain, accept that we would know it would be along the san andreas fault. The planetary lineup however, could cause the tectonic plates to slide drastically. We need more analysis for this, and an evacuation plan for southern california.
Richard
AGU,ASA,IEEE,ACS,MINSOC
PS. its not actually a planetary line up on Dec. 21/2012, its a novel alignment of the milky way and our sun.
No, The planets never actually align in space. They only have apparent alignments in our view of the sky. "Alignments where the five naked-eye planets cluster together in the sky within a circle 25 degrees or less in diameter once every 57 years, on average. There was one in in 1962 which sent many people into a panic. There was another in 2000. They are fairly common. The next time it will happen is September 8, 2040. The 2040 grouping will include Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and the crescent Moon. They will appear in the sky in a cluster well east of the Sun in the early evening.
But what about 2012? Nope. Nada. Nothing. There aren’t any ‘alignments’, except for the normal conjunctions that happen every year." thanks Bella
also
But even if the planets "lined up," they wouldn't cause any sort of problems. Tidal forces fall off in proportion to the square of the distance. I could stand a mile away from you and have about ten times more tidal force on you than Jupiter ever does. (Do the math, you'll see.)
It would make a good hollywood horror film however, and enough people are unsure about it that it causes anxiety.
The fact is , yosemite could bloe at any time, and needs some finite element study and the bridge idea isn't bad either. Similarly analysis of californias fault indicates the big quake could happen anytime between now and 10 years from now. Since we can't predict what will happen with 18g of water, 1 mol, quantum mechanically, especially if there are minerals in it, how on earth can we really predict the tectonic plate movements and geology of california. If we assume we have enough time series data to get the probabiltiy distributions right, and we have the right probability distributions.... which is far from obvious with current knowledge.... then perhaps we can do simulations that will highlight a region or window of time for the occurrence. This is not guaranteed. If the animals leave suddenly, you better leave too is my best advice.
if we can't separate fact from fiction, and generate our best positive life saving responses to the facts, where are we ever going to adapt and survive.
This is about winnowing the facts from a stream of information that contains emotional and popular opinions, which need to be separated from the fundamental unchanging facts of reality and the fundamental changing facts and dynamics of reality
The imminent big quake in california and california's obliviousness to it are a very bad sociological signal for humanities survival on Earth. Since we can't even predict what 18 g of water will do , let alone a whole ocean, quantum mechanically and also because of chaos theory and also because there is not enough data historically or present or even enough computing power, so we need to concentrate on the risks at hand.
If California will not move and evacuate for the big quake, probably the world will not move to seriously tackle climate change. One is a parallel to the other. It is just the deer caught in the headlights syndrome.
Lets hope California and the World move, even though i hate most of their cheesy films, some of them are actually enlightening, like the arrival with Charlie Sheen.