In the aftermath of the 2008 general election, I opined that the best reform to move forward with, from a partisan viewpoint, could be immigration reform, since it would give a massive structural advantage to democrats going forward.
Well... that didn't happen, and frankly won't likely happen in 2010 with the new administration battles with the likes of Sen Corker... but
The GOP in their short sighted kindness have parleyed short term political gain for a border governor, for nationwide Latino resentment of the GOP.
MSNBC:Latinos aren’t swing voters anymore
For example, 68% of Latinos approve of Obama’s job (compared with 48% of overall respondents and 38% of whites), and they view the Democratic Party favorably by a 54%-21% score (versus 41%-40% among all adults and 34%-48% among whites). And their views of the Republican Party? In the poll, the GOP fav/unfav among Latinos is 22%-44%.
While its a bit of a blunt instrument vis-a-vis Democratic electoral chances, Obama job approval is a pretty good indicator, right now... especially if you're looking forward to 2012. There has been a traditional conservative streak within the Hispanic community, but this polling shows that they are becoming ideological.
To me the AZ immigration bill is a gift to the Democratic party... especially because there is a large untapped potential vote out there:
And Latinos remain a sleeping -- yet growing -- political giant: 23% of them aren’t registered voters (compared with 12% of whites and 16% of blacks)
I spent a long time canvassing my (predominantly white) neighborhoods in 2008. Latino neighborhoods are a rich target environment for canvasing. You are TWICE as likely to canvas an unregistered Hispanic voter than an registered White voter.
A Strategic Shift
It didn't use to be this way. In 2004, George W. Bush, the former governor of Texas, won some 40% of the Latino vote. But in 2006, that percentage for Republicans dropped to 30%, and it was 31% in '08.
snip
-- In 2004, Dems held a 22-point edge in party identification among Latinos (49%-27%)
-- In 2005, it was 24 points (48%-24%)
-- In 2006, it was 26 points (50%-22%)
-- In 2007, it was 30 points (52%-22%)
-- In 2008, it was 35 points (57%-22%)
-- In 2009, it was 31 points (50%-19%)
-- And so far in 2010, it has been 36 points (58%-22%)
I have no clue how George Bush achieved his popularity with Latinos, but he appealed to Hispanic voters, and he won big propelled significantly by that.
You can see the erosion in support of the GOP by the Hispanic community. While there isn't polling on the exact reason for the high tide of support, it seems very probable that its a vote against xenophobia within the GOP.
How Democrats could take advantage
Being passive is not the way. While we will probably see increased percentages for Dems within the Latino vote, that doesn't mean there is going to be
A) High Latino turnout, or
B) Increased Latino registration
While I'm sure there was significant effort by OFA during 2008 to tap the Latino vote, I'd say there is the potential to see increases. Enthusiasm to get to the polls, even, if the appropriate steps are taken at a local level.
I would note that Republicans simply do not have the electoral math to win without a combination of either Florida or a sweep of the mountain west, so this could make a much clearer path to 538, provided Democrats can solidify the Latino advantage through registration and assimilation.