Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/31-6/2. Likely voters. MoE 4%
Republican Primary MoE 5%
Brian Sandoval (R) 48
Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) 27
Mike Montandon (R) 6
Other 2
The train wreck better known as Nevada Governor Jim Gibbons is days away from an abrupt retirement. Former federal judge Brian Sandoval sits on a twenty-one point lead over the incumbent, less than a week away from their June 8th primary.
Gibbons enjoyed a mini-boomlet in the earlier part of this year, which in his case meant that he only trailed Sandoval by single digits. He has faded badly down the home stretch, and this nomination is the closest thing you can get to locked up.
Democrats had been hoping to snag the badly wounded Governor as the opponent for near-certain nominee Rory Reid. Enterprising Dems even went so far as to put up an anti-Sandoval website that sought to inflame anger against Sandoval on the right, thus propping up Jim Gibbons.
A quick look at the data for November's general elections helps to explain why Democrats were so eager to see a Reid-Gibbons matchup, and so loath to see a Reid-Sandoval one.
General Election
Rory Reid (D) 52
Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) 31
Other 8
Brian Sandoval (R) 51
Rory Reid (D) 41
Other 5
Rory Reid (D) 43
Michael Montandon (R) 40
Other 7
Favorable/Unfavorable
Reid (D) 42/39
Gibbons (R) 19/62
Sandoval (R) 47/32
Montandon (R) 32/30
No one would describe Rory Reid as universally beloved in Nevada, but his net favorability is significantly better than his father. Gibbons is universally disliked (he only draws a 37/33 favorability ratio from his own party). Sandoval's favorability is bolstered by 23% of Democrats giving him a favorable assessment.