As has become customary here at DK, it is time to close out another week in this fascinating electoral cycle with the weekend edition of ye olde Wrap.
This was one of the busier weeks in memory, with a few billion primary elections (those needing a recap of that evening's festivities can click here), along with a number of interesting data points emanating from a bevy of pollsters all around the nation.
And, as it turns out, the week ended as it began, with a flurry of activity. Observe Rasmussen in full narrative setting mode: according to the House of Ras, the Tea Party movement is so bloody popular that one of their number will fairly easily get elected governor of blue-state Maine. So sayeth the Ras. A prominent sports celebrity is getting into the endorsement biz, and an endangered Democratic Congressman might have made himself more endangered by poking a stick at a potential spoiler candidate.
All that, and more, on the weekend edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
NV-Sen: Lowden campaign staffer wants Ashjian off ballot
Perhaps this dude is just a man dedicated to fair elections. That, or someone might want to explain to Sue Lowden's political director, Dan Burdish, that his candidate did not earn the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate.
Burdish filed a complaint with Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller, claiming that Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian's party does not belong on the Fall ballot. Burdish's complaint immediately got the smackdown from one of Miller's deputies, who pointed out that Burdish had mistakenly cited the signature requirement for full party inclusion on the ballot, rather than inclusion in a single race. As of now, Ashjian remains on the November ballot, which will include incumbent Democrat Harry Reid and newly-minted Republican nominee Sharron Angle.
OR-Sen: Wyden a darkhorse race? SUSA says so
Democrats could be in big trouble in nominally favorable terrain, if you put stock in the latest SurveyUSA poll. The SUSA survey has incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden (who has routinely been elected by wide margins) only leading law professor Jim Huffman by just 13 points (51-38). SUSA is clearly forecasting a major enthusiasm gap in November: the sample was only 18% liberal and 34% conservative. For a point of reference: the 2008 exit poll sample was 24% liberal and 33% conservative, and 2004 showed even more ideological parity (27% liberal, 34% conservative).
SC-Sen: Explaining the Greene-out in South Carolina
This isn't really breaking political or polling news, but a couple of solid analytical reads definitely deserve to make the cut, especially when they try to explain how the stealth candidate (unemployed veteran Alvin Greene) became the Democratic nominee in South Carolina. On the heels of the amazing claim by gubernatorial candidate Robert Ford that Greene's last name (with an "e" at the end) tipped off African-Americans to vote for one of their own, Jeffmd (who is an awesome add to an already top notch staff at the Swing State Project) actually goes inside the numbers and tests Ford's thesis. Meanwhile, Tom Jensen has a simple explanation for the event: neither candidate were known to the voters, so somebody had to win.
Meanwhile, the Rawl campaign is asking for an examination of what appears to be a curious disconnect between how the candidate performances in absentee balloting and live balloting. Rawl, it appears, ran the tables in many counties in the absentee balloting, only to get thumped on the walk-up vote.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AL-02: Frontrunner in GOP runoff might get the teabagger treatment
The Tea Party Express has rolled into southeastern Alabama, and they have put a target on the establishment choice in the July 13th runoff. The group has endorsed teabagger ally and businessman Rick Barber over Montgomery city council member Martha Roby. Barber ran a distant second to Roby, who just avoided making it to 50% during the June 1st primary.
NJ-06: Looks like primary day isn't quite over, after all
The June 8th primary elections will continue onward into their second week, it would appear. That is because the result in one House primary in the Garden State is still too close to call with all precincts reporting. Well funded GOP official Diane Gooch finds herself trailing by just 78 votes to conservative local mayor Anna Little. The winner takes on longtime Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone in a race that would likely be an uphill battle for either of them.
NC-08: Could Kissell's own tactics backfire in Indie bid?
From where the Wrap sits, this could be criminal stupidity on the part of freshman Democrat Larry Kissell. Late in the week, North Carolina Families First (powered by the SEIU) filed petitions to put former Kissell staffer Wendell Fant as an Independent candidate in the 8th district. The SEIU, and many progressives, were ticked off at the incumbent Democrat for his lack of support for the health care bill. According to Fant, however, he is genuinely undecided about whether to run.
Kissell might be helping him along, however, by filing an ethics complaint against Fant for doing personal business on his work computer. The Charlotte Observer reports that Fant was "hurt by the complaint and questions the timing of it."
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
NY-Gov: Will African-American NYC Councilman run as Indie?
Here is a potentially interesting twist to the New York gubernatorial election. NYC councilman Charles Barron, an African-American Democrat, is planning to create his own third party in order to run for Governor. Barron is apparently ticked off at the Democratic Party for fielding a statewide slate that did not include any candidates of color. Barron's candidacy is not a given: he will have to file petitions with 15,000 signatures in order to gain access to the ballot.
OR-Gov: Former Governor the underdog in November? SUSA says yes
More shocking data from the latest SurveyUSA poll out of the state of Oregon. If Ron Wyden being up by just 13%, and only barely over the 50% threshold, surprised you, then how does Democratic former Governor John Kitzhaber being down seven grab you? In the "holy shit" poll of the week, SUSA has former NBA baller Chris Dudley (R) leading Kitzhaber by a 47-40 margin. There are some numbers here that will raise one eyebrow, if not both: Dudley leading by a point in the Portland metro area seems to be the biggest headscratcher.
SC-Gov: Bauer endorses Barrett in gubernatorial runoff
Hard to know if a guy who finished a fairly distant fourth place can make an impactful endorsement, but Republican Lt. Governor Andre Bauer has cast his lot, nevertheless. Bauer endorsed runner-up Gresham Barrett, taking a sideways slap at frontrunner Nikki Haley by saying that Barrett was the only candidate he could "trust". Haley led round one of the balloting 49-22 on Tuesday.
TN-Gov: Haslam picks up a Pearl of an endorsement in Tennessee
Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam has about two months to convince Volunteer State voters that he deserves the GOP nod for Governor, and he picked up one of the best-known Volunteers as a celebrity endorser: UT mens basketball coach Bruce Pearl. Pearl endorsed Haslam, praising his work ethic and integrity, at a campaign stop yesterday. Haslam is challenged by Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey and Congressman Zach Wamp (Best. Campaign. Name. Ever) for the Republican nod. Democrats coalesced around businessman Mike McWherter.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Sure, skeptics, go ahead. Scoff at the notion that GOP nominee Paul LePage, who won the Republican primary in quite an upset, is a high single-digit favorite for the general. In other Ras-tastic news, Bob Ehrlich is suddenly on the move in Maryland and a Republican is actually losing somewhere...
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
MD-Gov: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 45%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 45%
ME-Gov: Paul LePage (R) 43%, Libby Mitchell (D) 36%, Eliot Cutler (I) 7%
NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 54%, Rory Reid (D) 31%