The latest poll from Siena College shows, in the battle to maintain control of the state senate, an anti-incumbent mood in New York is directed primarily at upstate Republicans.
According to the poll's findings, 66% of New Yorkers reject a GOP-controlled Senate, preferring to see the Democrats make gains in the chamber (34%) or see the Senate remain closely divided (32%) among the parties. Anti-incumbent sentiment was directed primarily at upstate Republicans, where 58% of voters preferred "someone else" to their current representative, vs. 51% in the suburbs and just 40% in New York City.
On the generic ballot, 44% preferred a Democratic Senator to just 26% Republican. Stan Greenberg of Siena puts the numbers into perspective:
"Only 35 percent of voters want to re-elect their incumbent state senator, while 50 percent prefer ‘someone else.’ It is not, however, automatically good news for Senate minority Republicans seeking to regain control. Democrats are inclined to re-elect their incumbent state senator by a 47-40 percent margin, while Republican voters prefer ‘someone else’ by an overwhelming 60-23 percent margin," Greenberg said. "Upstate, where 20 of 25 senators are Republican, only 28 percent want to re-elect their senator and 58 percent prefer ‘someone else.’
These are not isolated numbers. This is the second poll from Siena (and third poll overall) to show that New Yorkers are overwhelmingly ready to kick Republican incumbents out of office. What's more, the poll comes on the heels of a string of bad news for Republicans, including four high-profile retirements, an underwhelming class of candidates, voter registration gains for Democrats across the state, and the felony conviction of former Republican Leader Joe Bruno.
What should have been a bang-up year for Republicans is shaping up to be a unique opportunity for Democrats to expand the majority and significantly change the composition of the state senate. In 14 of the 20 upstate GOP-controlled districts alone, long-time Republican incumbents are facing challenges from strong candidates like Susan Savage, Mike Kaplowitz, Robin Wilt, Joanne Yepsen, Mary Wilmot and many more. On Long Island, candidates like Regina Calcaterra and George Sava are challenging the likes of Ken LaValle and Dean Skelos.
As John Sampson said in a video released earlier this week, the Democratic Majority has faced a rocky road since taking power, and people have a right to be frustrated. But there have been real accomplishments as well.
The campaign to retain the majority in the state senate is going to be the most competitive in the state in 2010, and the stakes couldn't be higher. I hope you'll take the time to investigate our candidates. Whatever your frustrations in the past, I'm sure you'll find some challengers that are worthy of your support. This is too important an election - and too big an opportunity - to sit on the sidelines.
Written by New York Senate Dems New Media Director, Mike Connery.