Skip to main content

For those into the arena of public opinion data, Tuesday has been, by and large, a veritable buffet of suck for the Democrats concerned about their Congressional majority.

But, late in the day, another poll surfaced with a diametrically opposed forecast for the Blue team. The AP-GfK poll was released late in the day, and showed a sizeable edge for Democrats on the question of who voters wanted to see in control of Congress. The survey (PDF file) showed Democrats with a seven-point edge on the issue of Congressional control (46-39). This was actually an improvement for Dems, who trailed on this question with AP/GfK as recently as mid-April.

The AP/GfK was the lone ray of sunshine in what was otherwise an extraordinarily cloudy polling day for Democrats.

Gallup came out this morning with their weekly snapshot of the generic Congressional ballot. In bad news for Democrats, the parity that they saw in last week's incarnation of their Congressional tracking poll appears to be offically gone:

Now, Gallup's numbers have ping-ponged dramatically in the last two weeks after being relatively stable for most of the year. Furthermore, one of our community members, in a post earlier today, thinks that there might be something hinky in the crosstabs of this particular survey.

All of which would provide some small measure of comfort, if it weren't for the fact that another respected poll came out Tuesday, one which provided painful confirmation of the Gallup numbers:

The results are a wake-up call for Democrats whose loses in the House could well exceed 30 seats. In the named-congressional ballot in the 60 Democratic districts, Democrats trail their Republican opponent, 42 to 47 percent, with only a third saying they want to vote to-relect their member. In the top tier of 30 most competitive seats, the Democratic candidate trails by 9 points (39 to 48 percent) and by 2 points in the next tier of 30 seats (45 to 47 percent). On the other hand, the Republican candidates are running well ahead in their most competitive seats ( 53 to 37 percent).

What should stop the heart of Democratic political officials, at least for the moment, is that the list (PDF file) of 10 Republican districts polled includes some districts that Democratic pickups seemed assured (DE-AL, IL-10, LA-02), and another seven that were perceived as legitimate pickup opportunities. To put it another way, there were no "reaches" on that list.

The fact that the GOP performance in those 10 districts is R+16 (albeit with a fairly high margin of error) should worry Democrats. Remember too, they are down nine points in the 30 most vulnerable seats for Democrats, and even trail in that second-tier of seats (which contained some races--WI-07, VA-09, NY-25--that seemed like real longshots).

Part of the problem is the issue of terrain. John McCain carried 17 of the 30 Tier I Democratic seats in the survey, some by wide margins. Even in the so-called Tier II GOP pickup opportunities, President Obama fell short in 16 of them. This explains why it is not necessarily an indicator of an outlier that the sample (PDF file) for the survey leaned both conservative and Republican.

This poll underscores that even if the Democrats improve their standing with voters before the fall, they are fighting on turf that is predisposed to favor the other side. This is the completely predictable consequence of winning two wave elections in a row. The GOP is fighting a lot of these battles on nominally favorable ground.

However, it is worth noting that PA-12 was a McCain district that went Democratic earlier this year, and they did so by a surprisingly wide margin. Campaigns matter, and so do candidates. The GOP has shot their own prospects in the foot around the country by nominating less electable candidates in primaries. That might prove to be a small measure of salvation for the Democrats come fall, and could go a long way toward reducing a tsunami into a violent, but survivable, wave.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:16 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  This electorate is so fluid that we could be down (10+ / 0-)

    then up many times before the election. The trick is to be up the day of the election, and that's a matter of timing.

  •  About those 30, 40, 60 seat lose predictions... (6+ / 0-)

    they aren't saying WHERE Dems will lose them. Looking at Dem incumbents in the most conservative districts, Matheson in UT, Minnick in ID, Bright in AL; they look like survivors this year.

    The race-by-race polls just don't support a great upheaval in the House.

    Take the fight to them. Don't let them bring it to you. - Harry S Truman

    by jgoodfri on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:20:11 PM PDT

    •  But, if this is a wave year, there are probably (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tnproud2b

      several Democratic incumbents who normally would be safe who might lose.

      •  Several, yes, but... (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, redwagon, Julie Gulden, kefauver, Dustee

        Even Nate Silver (who tends to be right about everything) is talking net 40 Dem losses. Looking at race-by-race polls, I'm just not seeing it.

        We just won a open seat House race in a McCain district!

        Take the fight to them. Don't let them bring it to you. - Harry S Truman

        by jgoodfri on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:30:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes that is true (0+ / 0-)

          However, the numbers do stink. But they may move back again if a financial reform bill passes and the oil spill comes under control.

          •  The oil spill (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, behan, LordMike, kefauver

            should be used to hammer the GOP over the head.  It's not only opportunistic, it's accurate.   They deserve to lose.  Can't believe we'd be ceding anything, in terms of red-blue politics on the oil issue.  It's one thing to criticize the administration for not making all the right moves (if that's the case) it's another to accept losing seats to the party that gleefully chanted Drill Baby Drill at their last convention.  

            It's worth giving up something in an argument if you're all standing on a mountain of gold.

            by Sun dog on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:53:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  There might be some gopers too (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, jgoodfri, LordMike, Dustee

        Grassley could lose this year.  

        If there was much of a Tea movement going on in Iowa, much of the steam went out of it when the gop nominated Brandstad.  The GOP might have more of a GOTV problem than the Democrats when it's all said and done and Democrats have the numbers.  And the only exciting candidate in the race in Roxanne Conlin.  

        There is a lot of talk here about reaching those first-time Democrats who came out for the caucuses and for Obama.  Any sizable percentage of those folks and the thing could tip.  

        It's worth giving up something in an argument if you're all standing on a mountain of gold.

        by Sun dog on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:49:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Now, that is exciting news. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sun dog

          I am really hoping that Conlin can win. Iowa seems too reasonable to send Grassley back after his behavior during the health care bill.

          •  Gotta wake people up this summer (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            We've got the numbers if we can get people to the polls.  

            I got to talk to Roxanne recently and I asked her to talk more on the stump about how she plans to win.  I think it's one of those instances where making it into MORE of a horse race than usual is a good idea.  It could light a fire under enough people to get us running downhill a little bit before this fall.  People need to believe she can win and then I think she will.    

            She's good on the stump, btw.  Funny and smart.  She doesn't need to just repeat the proper phrases for the proper moments.  She listens to people and speaks her mind.  

            It's worth giving up something in an argument if you're all standing on a mountain of gold.

            by Sun dog on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 08:52:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  There is a way out of this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dinotrac

      The GOP with its ostrich-like head in the sand approach to both the problem in the Gulf and with the closely related issue of global warming is giving democrats a tremendous opportunity.

      Dems need to begin to pile into investing in alternative energy stocks and hit lobbying efforts to help pick up steam for share prices.  It is inevitable that the US must develop alternative sources of energy and those that invest first have a tremendous opportunity to make a lot of money, in the long run at the expense of the oil, gas, and coal industries and other status quo technologies republicans are so eager to defend.  The investments will not only spur job growth but also create wealth that will begin to be noticed by more pragmatic Wall Street republicans, who are greedy enough to know an opportunity to make money when they see one.  

      Its time to get this effort rolling. Indeed Obama is calling on Americans to get this job done.

      The outcome of higher share prices will force more publicity that will see dems in the vanguard of solving our energy problems, growing the economy, and solving our energy crisis, while the GOP is content to play their usual games.

      We need savy dems, who can help the masses find the best and most dem friendly companies to invest in.  Once this train leaves the tracks, it will become unstoppable, so its time to get on board early, while there are still cheap seats on the train.

      Dump your oil and gold stocks and get in on the new green-gold rush, either directly or indirectly.  Lets face it, if we as Americans don't do this, then the Chinese and Europeans will do this for us.  In fact they already are ahead of us in many respects, as they don't have the dead weight of  republicans shackled to their legs.  

      Let the republicans be the last ones on the train or better yet let them stand on the tracks and get crushed by the train as it leaves the station.

      However, republicans are right about one thing.  We don't need to wait for the government to solve all our problems.  We can solve some on our own and then use our profits to lobby the government to pile into alternative energy efforts as well.

      •  Democrats are determined to blow energy (0+ / 0-)

        opportunity.

        Look at all of the "official" talk -- it's all carbon taxes and cap and trade, ie, punitive measures sure to make everything even more expensive for most Americans.  Wouldn't it be grand to see the supply-demand focus shift from carrots to sticks, ie, beating the cost out of alternatives.

        Even some kind of sliding plan that matches increasing carbon taxes with increasing availability of reasonably priced alternative energy.

        And the easiest thing of all for a government that invests so much money in buying energy every year -- buy renewable energy.  Become a dependable market.  Nothing attracts entrepreneurs like a way to make money that isn't going to evaporate as soon as you sink capital into it.

        If it's a diesel or  turbine (ie, jet planes), it can run on biofuels.

        Etc.

        Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

        by dinotrac on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 08:48:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Check the NPR Poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AZphilosopher

      The NPR Poll highlights the various districts. It's pretty pessimistic.

    •  But combining historical averages (0+ / 0-)

      with weak generic polling and it is not unreasonable to get to a 25-30 number.  40 would be making it through both tiers of 20 and as the commenter points out, there are some uber-conservatives who are going to hold on.

      I think it is too early to play "give me specifics".  At this point, I would only be uncomfortable with the 25-30 number if I'd see 16+ of the top 40 ahead by 10+ points.

      "Tease the Panther" is the new "Release the Kraken."

      by AZphilosopher on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 02:15:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Not Seeing the Term "Likely Voter" Very Often (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jim P

    It's pretty knowable what's a likely voter for midterms isn't it?

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:20:24 PM PDT

  •  this could be a strange year (6+ / 0-)

    in that generic ballots may prove useless. because, generally overall, people aren't happy with the democrats. but when they look at their own specific republican challengers, they realize that the alternative is worse.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:23:07 PM PDT

  •  Two predictions guaranteed to come true: (7+ / 0-)

    .

     If Democratic Candidates try to act all apologetic and milquetoasty, they'll get creamed.

     If Democratic Candidates try to act all Republican Lite, they'll get creamed.

     Gee, what alternative does that leave . . . ?

    .

    "I have to go now. I feel . . . sticky." Anthony Bourdain

    by BenGoshi on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:25:02 PM PDT

    •  I always hear this argument (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dinotrac

      But, if voters choose the "real Republican", as you imply, what makes you think they'll vote for a more liberal Democrat? I doubt that the majority who will vote for those GOP Candidates will do so because the defeated Democrat was "insufficiently liberal".

      •  It's a matter of spine and conviction. (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, LordMike, skyounkin, Jim P, dskoe

        .
         How old are you?  If you're under 40 then, with the exceptions of Waxman, Grayson, Frankin and a handful of others, spine has rarely even been tried in the past 30 years.  Howard Dean had, and has, it.  

         There used to be a day and age when Democrats stood up to Republicans.  I'd like to see that again, as a Party Attitude, not just the rare notion of a few exceptions to the Nebbish Rule.

        .

        "I have to go now. I feel . . . sticky." Anthony Bourdain

        by BenGoshi on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:30:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Fair enough (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jim P

          But I don't think that the voters who elect Republicans do so to punish insufficiently liberal Democrats.

          •  But they evidently don't feel represented, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BenGoshi

            on the other hand.

            Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

            by Jim P on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:45:38 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But I just don't see how the voters who (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dinotrac

              elect Republicans somehow want more liberal policies. If they did they wouldn't be electing Republicans.

              •  That they elect Republicans.... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BenGoshi

                well, what's the option if you don't like the Democrat?

                Most people, except single issue people and die-hard partisans, go by whether the person feels trustworthy or not, and that's pretty much it. Slogans play a role, given that most voters get low- or dis-information. But "like/trust" or "dislike/don't trust" rules the majority of voters, it seems to me.

                Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

                by Jim P on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 08:20:20 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  That's not the point. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus, happymisanthropy

            .
             The point is that when a Democrat gets out there and bothers to HAMMER their Republican opponent for GOP hypocrisy, for the GOP's giving the deregulatory keys to the kingdom to the likes of Enron and AGI and BP, for the GOP's craven service to the insurance and banking and oil industries; and when a Democrat on the campaign trail reminds prospective voters that Progressive, intrepid attitudes and ideals and inspiration are the soul of America, and so on, then the more likely that Democrat is to bring those voters along with him or her.

             That's what it's about.

            .

            "I have to go now. I feel . . . sticky." Anthony Bourdain

            by BenGoshi on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:48:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  and if they do (0+ / 0-)

          We call for their arrest....

          See Digby and Greenwald on Etheridge.

        •  Takes more body parts than that. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BenGoshi

          Ear and heart would be handy, too.

          Democrats have turned a deaf ear to those who have been shouting about the impact of unemployment.  As they have pursued their agenda, they have demonstrated no compassion for millions of their fellow Americans.

          People tend to remember that sort of thing, especially when they are wistfully remembering the good old days before the house was foreclosed.

          Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

          by dinotrac on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 08:51:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  People want common sense, decency, and (4+ / 0-)

        effectiveness. That's an implicitly liberal set of wishes.

        There's been the media agit/prop effort to keep people divided over topics, which themselves, are ever framed more Rightward. They falsify everything.

        In the vast sweep of the US beyond Village framing, leave party/ideology off the question on any major issue, people come down with solid majorities on the liberal side, or nearly even. Poll after poll for years has shown this.

        I look at it this way:

        We won handily in '08 with hope and change. Be seen to deliver on that, and those voters come back for '10. If anyone's priority is a winning strategy, there it is, complete.

        Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

        by Jim P on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:44:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Better Democrats? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BenGoshi, happymisanthropy

      Clone Sanders, Howard Dean, some others, and have them run everywhere.

      Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

      by Jim P on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:32:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  One more: (6+ / 0-)

      If we don't use this site to build up support for every Dem on the ballot for Congress, we will have blown a tremendous opportunity. And we will lose seats that we wouldn't have needed to lose.

      Come To Arizona - It's a DRY Hate!

      by kitebro on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:32:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  More doom and gloom (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock

    Did anyone bother to filter out the Rasmussen in the polls? It's like picking the stray cat hair out of your oatmeal.

    What do the Republicans have to offer the voters? "Dreeyul Bebby Dreeyul"? or perhaps "Show me yo' papuhs, boway?"

    Nearly sprained my tongue trying to pronounce Eyjafjallajökull

    by Pale Jenova on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:26:41 PM PDT

    •  No, They Offer Change From the Change We Now See (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      happymisanthropy, tnproud2b

      we don't want.

      If the likely midterm voters buy that, they make big gains.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:32:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  These Were Two Individual Polls.... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, redwagon, Jim P, tnproud2b

      Neither of which are Rasmussen.

      NPR was conducted by a joint effort by Democratic pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, along with a GOP pollster whose name is escaping me (P.O.S., maybe?).

      Gallup was conducted by...well...Gallup.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:33:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I sit corrected (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        v2aggie2

        But the narrative of "Democrats are DOOMED" doesn't fly. A recent poll of my state's governor race shows the Republican winning--but the pollster assumes twice as many conservatives as liberals voting--even in Democratic districts.

        I can predict the Socialist Party will win in Texas by assuming only Socialists vote . . .

        Nearly sprained my tongue trying to pronounce Eyjafjallajökull

        by Pale Jenova on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 08:40:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  What is correlation of generic to election? (0+ / 0-)
    What is the correlation of the generic preference polls to the election results? Contests all seem so individual to each district and each state.
  •  soon (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kefauver

    we'll get a poll that contradicts all of this. Polling has its ups and downs, especially if you look at each one individually.

    People panic too much on this site.

    by thematt523 on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:27:18 PM PDT

  •  Remember a tie in the overall congressional vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redwagon, Julie Gulden

    equates to a 30 seat loss for the Dems according to Nate Silver.  Adjust your expectations accordingly.

  •  also (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Julie Gulden, kefauver

    some of those open seat polls have to be outliers. How can we be losing in LA-02? It's 65% black.

    People panic too much on this site.

    by thematt523 on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:28:59 PM PDT

    •  Can't Take Them Individually.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, LordMike

      That is why GQR does it this way. It looks at 10 "vulnerable seats", polling a few dozen people in each. Collectively, you get a reasonable margin of error.

      You can't conclude anything, however, from any individual district, where the MoE is beyond stratospheric.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:35:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  this is only one poll (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, kefauver

        There is no reason that we should take this poll as absolute gospel. This poll could be wrong for many reasons. Or it could just be an outlier. No other poll seems to have it this bad for the Democrats.

        Besides, what can we do?

        People panic too much on this site.

        by thematt523 on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:57:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Any numbers on if people (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, irmaly

    plan to use their vote to express "out with the incumbent, whatever party"?

    Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

    by Jim P on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:29:51 PM PDT

  •  it's going to be a bad election (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock

    but the reality is, it doesn't have to be, if we get out our folks, but the reality THERE is that, we won't get out our folks.

    The emotion and energy is on the other side. We may have a couple of years of tougher challenges until the presidential election.

    I hope not, but fear we will.

  •  Take off the rose colored glasses (0+ / 0-)

    this is going to be a bad election cycle for the Dems.  That is why I'm hoping they can churn out a half-way decent energy/environmental bill and financial bill before Congress becomes really gridlocked for the next two years.

  •  I predict (0+ / 0-)

    Dems losing 100 seats, sorry make that 120 seats....

    We had 60 seats but acted like we had 5. Now we have 59.

    by jbjowe on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 07:37:44 PM PDT

  •  GOP will definitely win a Majority in the House (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MKSinSA, ctkosh, moonpal

    simply because the Democratic base is against Obama now.  No Democratic base; no Democratic wins. The GOP will win, they will repeal HCR (you didn't like it anyway) and perhaps impeach Obama on some bullshit charge.  The good news is that then everyone on this site as well as HuffPo, Firedoglake, Americablog, Thinkprogress, Crooks and Liars, etc. can go back to doing what you do best:  Whining and complaining about the republicans in that hilariously funny, witty, way you do so well...  Enjoy...

  •  Sorry, I Like Results vs. Polls. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, brn2bwild, evilhoodedcrow

    And so far, Democrats are 6 of 7 in special elections for the House. Would be a perfect 7 of 7 if two Democrats didn't run in the Hawaii special.

    Face it, the Repukes maxed out their momentum a month ago. Even Harry Reid is looking good again after being written off months ago.

    Not voting gets Republicans elected. Gloating about it on DKOS isn't helpful either.

    by kefauver on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 08:19:08 PM PDT

  •  dems could win big if (0+ / 0-)

    they stopped playing politics without a front line and finally started paying attention to all the daily punking they get on 1000 radio stations every day.

    otherwise, just keep kissing limbaugh hannity ass.

    Progressives will lose all major messaging battles until they picket the limbaugh/hannity megastations and boycott those stations' local sponsors.

    by certainot on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 08:28:14 PM PDT

  •  Why Do You Say The NPR Poll Is Well Respected? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kefauver

    Is there a real good track record for NPR?  If so, I have not heard so.

    •  Also, It is One Poll Out of Dozens . . . (0+ / 0-)

      Done on a weekly basis. I've seen PPP get it wrong on specific house races plenty of times and they're a "respected pollster."

      Not voting gets Republicans elected. Gloating about it on DKOS isn't helpful either.

      by kefauver on Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 09:31:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Senate is off of the table (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kefauver

    because Angle, Toomey, Rubio and Paul would ALL have to win for a pick-up of +3 and those are the easy races. Then Rossi would have to win and Carly would have to take her baaaad self to the Senate for 2 more.

    The House is going to lose 25-30 seats.  If Dems can make it through this year, the Repubs will pull the all out Jean Marie Le Pen and hopefully give back some of those seats.

    "Tease the Panther" is the new "Release the Kraken."

    by AZphilosopher on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 02:08:51 AM PDT

  •  I think our fortunes are better than many expect. (0+ / 0-)

    This will require two things:

    1. That the stimulus, bank reform, the tax cuts and other measures taken by Democrats, including HCR, continue to buoy up an economy that MAY HAVE BEEN A DEPRESSION under GOP leadership continue to grow the economy and give people some financial relief. The stimulus STILL has upwards of a year to go before it's effects will completely be felt and start to wane. The next 6 months or so might continue to improve. Jobs are ALWAYS the last thing to recover after recessions and depressions. Repeat that, rinse, repeat.
    1. And for us to take a break from the circular firing squads until after November get out and work very hard for candidates in 2010. We need to create inspiration and to make ourselves indispensable to the party. That will put more progressive candidates in place and give us greater cache in 2012. Anyone who expected a progressive Democratic party short of 2014 has been kidding themselves. Government is a slow boat.

    While we are not as far along as what things might have been if Obama had a bit more of a partisan populism as we saw in FDR and John Edwards, and despite an aggravated GOP that has stonewalled unlike anything seen in generations, a lot of pieces are in place to get Democrats to rally around. I heard an interview with Jonathan Alter on his book "The Promise" about Obama's entry into the presidential race until the passage of HCR and he lists a LOT of decisive challenges that Obama and the Democrats have accomplished since Jan. 2009.

    We need to know that list and focus on hammering them home to the public. I think at it's core Americans are re-formulating the advantages of liberalism. But that's a long term goal that will not be reached soon if we don't make it happen at this critical juncture.

    If we do that, we WILL minimize losses and perhaps even pull off a squeaker after the two previous major wins unlike any seen, again, in generations

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site