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After Tuesday brought one of the lengthiest Wraps in the history of Western Civilization, let us herald the return of a more abbreviated Wrap, and bless the hour or so of reading time we get back on this Wednesday evening....

U.S. SENATE

CT-Sen: Is Simmons still a stealth candidate for Senate?
That's the question that Chris Cillizza's The Fix pondered today, as Simmons once again refused to rule out returning to the Senate campaign that he suspended last month in the wake of the Republican state convention that endorsed rival Linda McMahon. Given how badly McMahon is stumbling in recent polling, it isn't the most outlandish idea.

WA-Sen: Murray leads all comers, including Rossi
Dino Rossi's splashy entrance into the Senate race (diffused slightly by a less-than-robust welcome at last week's GOP convention) has not propelled him into the lead, according to a new Elway Poll. The pollster has incumbent Democrat Patty Murray up seven points (47-40) on Rossi, and also leading Tea Party favorite Clint Didier (46-32) and businessman Paul Akers (47-33). Now, while those numbers do represent a solid lead for the Democrat, they are several points worse than the last Elway Poll in the state, where Murray held leads ranging from 17-26 points. In a potentially bad sign for the GOP, though, Elway also polled the "open primary" that Washington utilizes, and found Murray up 43-31 over Rossi, with Didier and Akers way back in single digits. The combined GOP vote came out to 38%, meaning that even a candidate capable of consolidating the Republican vote would start from behind, if these numbers hold.

Didier, for his part, is in the district this week, trying to get some Washington DC love to take back to Washington State.

U.S. HOUSE

CT-04: Republican field narrows with petition faux pas
He entered the race a couple of months back amid a smattering of fanfare, but the Congressional candidacy of local selectman Tom Herrmann is over. His petitions had a number of invalidated signatures, which put him below the threshold necessary to earn a place on the ballot. The favorite to take on Democratic freshman Jim Himes remains state legislator Dan Debicella. Debicella still might face a primary, as a pair of Republicans are still in the petition stage.

NH-01: Guinta takes shot as successor endorses the other guy
Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, who won the office last year, had a chance to endorse his predecessor, former Mayor Frank Guinta, in his bid for Congress against Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter. Instead, the GOP frontrunner got pretty squarely dissed, as his successor elected to endorse Guinta's rival for the nod, instead. Gatsas endorsed Sean Mahoney, who entered the race a couple of months back to challenge Guinta, who entered in 2009 but endured a series of stumbles.

NC-11: Add Shuler to the target list? A P.O.S. poll says so
While bearing in mind the traditional caveat about internal polling, a new poll conducted for the GOP nominee in Western North Carolina seems to indicate that there might be a race in this swing district. Democratic sophomore Rep. Heath Shuler leads Republican nominee Jeff Miller by a dozen points (46-34), according to the poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (which I affectionately have dubbed P.O.S, a nickname perhaps earned if you buy Nate Silver's ratings). Shuler's district leans Republican at the presidential level, but not overwhelmingly so.

UT-02: Operation Chaos in the Democratic primary?
A brief piece in the New York Times raises an interesting possibility. Given the fact that the GOP in UT-02 has already selected a nominee for November (Morgan Philpott), might the GOP seize this opportunity to wreak a little havoc on the Democratic side of the ballot? Given the open primary process in Utah, it is actually plausible. In that primary, longtime incumbent Jim Matheson is getting quite a scare from Claudia Wright, the liberal insurgent candidate who held Matheson to under the requisite 60% convention vote threshold to avoid a primary. The one saving grace for Matheson, as Crisitunity over at Swing State Project noted, is that the GOP has its own toss-up primary that day, the one between Bridgewater and Lee for the U.S. Senate.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

AL-Gov: Recount expected to end tomorrow, with little change thus far
The recount to determine the runoff challenger for Bradley Byrne in the GOP gubernatorial race in Alabama should be done by Thursday, and the early indicators are that nothing has happened to suggest that Tim James will move into the coveted second slot. Both campaigns apparently agree that the vote margin has barely changed since the recount began on Tuesday. Robert Bentley, the state legislator currently in the runner-up spot, is actually considered the favorite in the runoff, given his status as the more conservative candidate in the head-to-head battle with Byrne.

IL-Gov: Incumbent Democrat trails slightly; A Green spoiler?
Governor Pat Quinn is faring quite poorly in his bid for re-election, according to a new survey out this week from PPP. Repubican nominee Bill Brady holds a four-point edge (34-30) over Quinn, while Green Party nominee Rich Whitney plays a potential spoiler role by holding down 9% of the vote (and taking twice as many Obama '08 voters than McCain '08 voters). There are still plenty of undecideds, of course, but sitting at 30% (with 50% disapproval) is not where an incumbent wants to be in June.

MI-Gov: GOP pollster thinks Hoekstra will be the choice
Magellan Strategies, a relative newcomer that has been almost Ras-esque in their output this cycle, turns its attention to the Industrial Midwest, polling the very competitive (PDF file) GOP primary for Governor in Michigan. They have uber-conservative Congressman Peter Hoekstra leading the field with 26% of the vote, businessman Rick Snyder running second at 20%, and Attorney General Mike Cox continuing his comeback of sorts with a close third place at 16%.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

Ras gets really Ras-esque in Iowa, where (conservative grumbling be damned!) the Republican nominee apparently has a 26-point lead over the Democratic incumbent.

And that...shockingly...is the only horse race poll Ras lays out on this Wednesday (although they do find the time to survey the Garden State, in order to report that New Jersey's Republican Governor is far more popular than any other pollster seems to think).

IA-Gov: Terry Branstad (R) 57%, Gov. Chet Culver (D) 31%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 07:42 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I dont know, I think poll looks okay for Shuler (3+ / 0-)

    considering it's an opponent's internal. Sigh, I hope Matheson wins in UT-02. I may agree more with Wright, but that's a likely GOP pickup if Wright wins the primary.

    •  NC-11 (0+ / 0-)

      I know that Shuler comes under a lot of criticisms here and from other progressives, but he does have a solid environmental record and given the minimal presence of unions in the district is record on labor issues isn't bad and is a vast improvement over the 16 years Repug incumbent he defeated in 2006.  

      The district is pretty red on the presidential level (the last Democrat to carry it with a flat out majority was Jimmy Carter in 1976) and is not one that is going to elect a Bernie Sanders or an Alan Grayson.

      Miller will probably prove to a be a stronger candidate than the wingnut Shuler demolished in 2008 although some tea baggers aren't turning cartwheels about him after he narrowly defeated their candidate in the primary.

  •  CT-04 petition problems (0+ / 0-)

    Of interest in the CT-04 petition issue...  The first forged signature that came to light was the name of the wife of a Town Republican Committee chairman - a big Debicella supporter.  And it was spotted by a registrar who the Herrmann campaign wanted recused, since the registrar was... wait for it... a big Debicella supporter.  It's peculiar.

    Republicans just try to block anything Democrats and science have to say.

    by Russells 10 on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 07:54:06 PM PDT

  •  Simmons is sticking around... (0+ / 0-)

    Just in case McMahon implodes.  I can't imagine he's spring a primary challenge on her, but if she crashes and burns between now and the primary, Simmons would be there to step in.  

    Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

    by Jonze on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 07:54:57 PM PDT

  •  Ted Gatsas is a decent Republican. (0+ / 0-)

    There's a handful of them left, he's one of 'em.

    Guinta is a thug.

  •  NC--Brad Miller's district (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.bellinghamherald.com/...

    Randall, who has aligned himself with the tea party movement, readily acknowledges that he has no evidence that what he says is true. But that is not stopping him from making the claim as he campaigns in the June 22 GOP runoff to face incumbent Democratic Rep. Brad Miller on the November ballot.

    "Now, I'm not necessarily a conspiracy person, but I don't think enough investigation has been done on this," Randall said at a media conference on Tuesday. "Someone needs to be digging into that situation. Personally, and this is purely speculative on my part and not based on any fact, but personally I feel there is a possibility that there was some sort of collusion. I don't know how or why, but in that situation, if you have someone from a company violating a safety process and the government signing off on it, excuse me, maybe they wanted it to leak.

    "Go well through life"-Me (As far as I know)

    by MTmofo on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 08:16:53 PM PDT

  •  On the ground in Michigan (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, UTvoter, KingofSpades

    rumor has it that "Twitter Pete" Hoekstra (so named because of his Twittering from Iraq and potentially revealing their position) is flat ass broke.

    Cox got major endorsements from Michigan Right to Life and (wait for it) Dick and Betsy DeVos in the same day last week.  Obviously related events.  I about fell out of my chair when I heard about the DeVos endorsement.  As kingmakers for the republican party in Michigan, I thought they would endorse their local boy Pete, and not Cox, who is from Detroit.  All you have to do is say the word Detroit to a republican from West Michigan and it's "OMG! Invasion from Mars!"  More so because Cox is Catholic and the Devosses are pure Dutch Reformed.

    So there has to be more to the story...like (ya think?) money.  Snyder has already spent over $1 million of his own fortune getting his name out to the voters.  Cox has spent $875,000 and has barely improved his position, but at least he has money to spend.  Snyder has moderate tendencies (has supported stem cell research) and no way do the DeVosses want him as the candidate.

    Apparently the kingmakers in West Michigan think Twitter Pete can't afford this race.  So we have Cox as the anti-Snyder.  OMG!  Invasion from Mars!

  •  I'm in UT02 and struggling. Help! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    loretta

    thinking of writing a diary.

    I want very much to see Bluedog matheson out on his keister. He voted against health care and in fact votes with the dems only 42% of the time. He really pissed me off on a vote to drill in ANWAR a number of years ago and at our democratic election night party in 2006, he TOTALLY blew off the masses. Didn't even give a victory speech to us. instead stayed in his little room with his donors.

    And Claudia Wright is a progressive the likes of which would make kossacks proud. So I would like to see her win the nomination because she holds my values.

    However, she probably couldn't take the seat, as she is too left for the gerrymandered district that includes much of southern (dixie) utah. So, do i vote my conscience and push the button for claudia, the lost cause? Or stick with the sure thing blue dog, who's only contribution is the D after his name?

    "For the cost of deploying one soldier for one year, it is possible to build about 20 schools." N. Kristof

    by UTvoter on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 08:57:12 PM PDT

    •  Whose only contribution is the D (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      UTvoter

      after his name... and the 42% of votes where he's spot on. Plus, he'll vote for Pelosi, the Repug would not. Looking at how likely it is that the House will be really, really close after the election, vote for Matheson.

      Support Dennis McDonald and Montana Democrats in the 2010 election!

      by twohundertseventy on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 11:42:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Error (0+ / 0-)

    Quinn isn't looking to be re-elected.  He took over the governorship when Blago was impeached.  He was previously Lt. Governor.

    "Children lack morality, but they also lack fake morality." Mignon McLaughlin

    by djbender on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 09:13:15 PM PDT

  •  One little thingie- you didn't coin P.O.S. (0+ / 0-)

    Pollster.com relatively frequently uses that abbreviation in their table, just without the dots. POS.

    Support Dennis McDonald and Montana Democrats in the 2010 election!

    by twohundertseventy on Wed Jun 16, 2010 at 11:43:04 PM PDT

  •  Simmons, CT (0+ / 0-)

    Could this be the new strategy of the 'mainstream/backroom' Republicans?  If the Uber conservative wins the primary, then suspend your campaign, wait for the Uber candidate to self-destruct, then waltz in as the only 'acceptable/elctable' choice for the general election.

    Could work....

    ... the watchword of true patriotism: "Our country - when right to be kept right; when wrong to be put right." - Carl Schurz; Oct. 17, 1899

    by NevDem on Thu Jun 17, 2010 at 07:51:51 AM PDT

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