Today: Colorado
Summary:
Colorado has 7 representatives: 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans. The only seat that's in real danger is Markey (D) in CO-04, but CO-03 and CO-07 might go wrong.
The primary is Aug 10.
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
FEC
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District: CO-01
Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern map
Cook PVI D+21
Representative Diana DeGette (D)
VoteView rank 93/447
First elected 1996
2008 margin 72-24 over George Lilly
2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 74-24
Bush margin 2004 31-68
Current opponents Michael Deming
Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)
Assessment Safe. DeGette has over $100K COH, no info on Deming.
District: CO-02
Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies. Also the exurbs of Denver map
Cook PVI D +11
Representative Jared Polis
VoteView rank 187.5/447
First elected 2008
2008 margin 62-34 over Scott Starin
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin NA
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Scott Starin is running again, also Stephen Bailey (R) and Curtis Harris (libertarian), and Bob Brancato.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Polis won easily in 2008, should be safe. Polis has $155K COH, the others have little.
District: CO-03
Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative John Salazar (D)
VoteView rank 207/447
First elected 2004
2008 margin 61-39 over Wayne Wolf
2006 margin 62-37
2004 margin 51-47
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Bob McConnell (R), Ray Scott (R), Doug Thompson (R) and Scott Tipton (R).
Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)
Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe. Salazar has just over $1 million COH, Tipton almost $200K, the others have little. The Republicans seem to be trying to be most conservative.
SSP Rating: Likely D
My rating: Almost safe
District: CO-04
Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Betsey Markey (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 56-44 over Marilyn Musgrave
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Diggs Brow n, Cory Gardner, Tom Lucero, Dean Madere (all Republican)
Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment This is a Republican district; Markey barely ousted the truly odious Marilyn Musgrave. Markey has $1.2 million COH, Gardner just over $500K, the others have little.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: CO-05
Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Doug Lamborn (R)
VoteView rank 439.5/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 60-37 over Hal Bidlack
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 66-33
Current opponents None
Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.
Assessment No opponent
District: CO-06
Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Mike Coffman (R)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 60-40 over Hank Eng
2006 margin 59-40
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents John Flerlage (D)
Assessment Safe. Coffman has $400K COH, Flerlage has little.
District: CO-07
Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)
VoteView rank 203.5/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 63-37 over John Lerew
2006 margin 55-42
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Brian Campbell, Michael Deming, Ryan Frazier, Mike Sheeley, Lang Sias (all Republican)
Demographics Not unusual in what I track
Assessment Perlmutter has $1.2 million COH, Frazier has almost $400K, the others little.
SSP: Likely D
My rating: Safe. Obama won big, Gore won, Perlmutter is the incumbet and he has plenty of COH.