Skip to main content

Thank you, Rasmussen pollsters for giving North Carolina and Senate candidate Elaine Marshall one of the most pessimistic and worst conducted polls in the 2010 election cycle.

Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll on the 2010 NC Senate race shortly after Public Policy Polling released a  highly anticipated poll showing a 38 to 33 percent spread between Elaine Marshall and incumbent Senator Richard Burr. The PPP poll showed Libertarian candidate Mike Beitler picking up 10%. Any semi-intelligent and semi-coherent North Carolina political analyst knows that Libertarians make up a large and fairly vocal part of NC politics especially in the East region of the state.

Rasmussen DID NOT INCLUDE the Libertarian candidate in their poll, they also did not provide any information on the methodology of this specific poll, and did not provide the wording of any of the questions.

The poll gave Elaine Marshall 37% and Richard Burr 52%, 52! It is ridiculous that Rasmussen expects that this poll could be considered legitimate. Their last poll in North Carolina showed Burr-Marshall to be a ONE POINT race at 44-43. They explain away the 8 point drop for Burr and 6 point gain for Marshall in last months poll as a fluke or "a big bounce" following her runoff victory.

It is pretty clear that by excluding Mike Beitler from the poll, Rasmussen helps cover up cracks in Republican Party unity in North Carolina, and tries to show a fracture in Democratic Party unity. Republican votes will be siphoned off in votes for Mike Beitler, and Democrats will vote for Elaine Marshall in November, the question is in what numbers, and GOTV will be our job.

Rasmussen seems to be blatantly attempting to portray Elaine Marshall as a weaker candidate in their poll, following a strong showing for Secretary Marshall in the previous PPP and Ras polls. The NC Senate race will be one of the most highly contested races, and will be a Republican incumbent seat turned yellow-dog blue. Rasmussen does not want DNC, DSCC, and progressive money flowing into North Carolina, and they do not want the media putting North Carolina on their toss-up list, or leaning blue column. It is too late, soon that national media and bloggers will pick up on what is happening in North Carolina: a real grassroots campaign that has not been highly visible to them, because it is a REAL grassroots campaign. Elaine Marshall, remember the name.

Originally posted to tarheelprogressive on Wed Jul 07, 2010 at 08:35 PM PDT.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Ras has proven their... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    We Won

    unmitigated bias time and time again. I'm going to enjoy voting for Marshall, and donating all I can. And when she WINS and we have TWO women Democratic Senators I will futterwocken vigorously.

    "Come writers and critics who prophetize with your pen. And keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again." --Bob Dylan

    by Socratic Method on Wed Jul 07, 2010 at 08:44:44 PM PDT

  •  Since it's your headline (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nova Land, MsWings
    the word you're going for is its (possessive), not it's (meaning it is)
  •  17 statewide offices in North Carolina, 15 Dems (4+ / 0-)

    Dem House
    Dem Senate
    Dem Governor
    Dem Lieutenant Governor
    Dem Secretary of State

    President Obama won in NC

    1, soon to be 2 Dem Senators

  •  Hey, you should cross-post on BlueNC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross

    I imagine there'd be a fair bit of interest...

  •  When was (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    When was the last time a Libertarian candidate received 10% of the vote in a contested, state-wide race?  I think Ras's numbers are high for the GOP but I didn't find 10% for the Libertarian candidate by PPP to be very realistic, either.

    "In his library at Simi Valley, dead Reagan waits dreaming"

    by greatdarkspot on Wed Jul 07, 2010 at 10:46:19 PM PDT

  •  Go Marshall Go (0+ / 0-)

    I wish I still lived in NC, so I could throw one more vote Sec. Marshall's way.

  •  ras has balls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    After this poll ras moved NC from tossup to GOP favored. He has a list of races and he lists most of the usual in the tossup column.
    Looks like this year either Ras or PPP will end up looking foolish. Then again as we know ras will start polling correctly in late october and  suddenly Marshall will make a remarkable recovery.

    •  That's his MO (0+ / 0-)

      Create GOP enthusiasm and momentum with GOP favorable numbers in the months before a vote.

      Then do real polls in the two weeks before the vote.  

      No one remembers the early, biased shit and everything thinks Ras is a great polling outfit.

      By his own words, Ras says they are a MEDIA outfit, which puts them in the same bed with Fox News... worthless, biased, batshit insane bullshit.


      "Sick Around the World"

      Watch it, send it along to all you know.

      by oxfdblue on Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 03:33:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Umm... (0+ / 0-)

    Any semi-intelligent and semi-coherent North Carolina political analyst knows that Libertarians make up a large and fairly vocal part of NC politics especially in the East region of the state.

    So why did ALL third parties combined receive only 3%, 1%, and 1% in the last three Senate elections in North Carolina, if the Libertarian Party is as strong as you say they are?  Either they're really numerous, but their members end up voting for one of the two main parties, or they're there, but they sit and stay at home on Election Day.

    Can you back up your claim about the strength of the Libertarian Party on a statewide basis with any facts?

    •  Thank you for the criticism (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I am sorry for putting that in a hyperbolic and potentially offensive way. The difference in the 2004 election when Senator Burr was elected to office was around 150,000 votes, when he beat Erskine Bowles. Libertarians fairly consistently pull more than 100,000 voters. They have been on every presidential and gubernatorial ballot in NC since 1978, and they have ranged from 1-4.5% of the vote. I should have mentioned that the first televised debate for the general election included Dr. Beitler, the Libertarian, which would intuitively give him an increase in name recognition, and warrant at least including him in the Rasmussen poll.

      My main thesis, if anything, is that Rasmussen displayed sleazy polling practices to achieve a political end, and that the Libertarian candidate has at least a chance to pull Republican or "Tea Party" votes away from Burr, which Ras and the Republicans do not want to acknowledge.

      •  Except... (0+ / 0-)

        in the 2004 race, here were the results.

        Burr 1,791,450 (52%)
        Bowles 1,632,527 (47%)
        Bailey 47,743 (1%)

        Tom Bailey was the Libertarian Party's candidate that year, and got nowhere near 100,000 votes.

        In 2002, the Libertarian candidate got only 33,807 votes in the Senate race.  True, in 2008, the Libertarian candidate got 131,590 votes in the Senate race, but that seems to be the first time they broke the 100,000 mark in years, so I'm not sure you can say they do so "consistently".

        I agree with your other points about the current guy's visibility in being included in the debate and all.

        •  Good point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Consistently was the wrong way to phrase it, but the Libertarian Party has had a voice in North Carolina politics, will continue to do so, and I think this election will give them a larger turnout than in the past. I do not know how the other televised debates will be run. I think I was one of the few who watched the first one. It was in Wilmington (in the East) and included Dr. Beitler, in part because of where it was. How much support he gets could depend on whether or not he is included in debates. His presence certainly makes the nuts and bolts of a three-way awkward, but he almost constantly attacked Burr, so that was nice. If there is a Tea Party "movement" in North Carolina, it would make make sense for it to favor Beitler (but when have they ever made sense?).

  •  don't worry about the polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Elaine Marshall is a good candidate. She should be a little win but she needs to work hard to get her name out. Senator Burr has done nothing for North Carolina. If the more famous Elizabeth Dole, who is by far more personable, can go down in flames, so can Senator "no personality" Burr.

    Be involved!

    by ecthompson on Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 04:18:40 AM PDT

    •  correction (0+ / 0-)

      Elaine Marshall is a good candidate. She should be able to (dictation program went nuts) win but she needs to work hard to get her name out. Senator Burr has done nothing for North Carolina. If the more famous Elizabeth Dole, who is by far more personable, can go down in flames, so can Senator "no personality" Burr.

      Be involved!

      by ecthompson on Thu Jul 08, 2010 at 04:20:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site