Over at calitics.com, the latest Field Poll numbers are up. Before I get into those, I'd like to point out the most concise, definitive pro-prop 19argument I've seen out there. California Assemblymember Tom Ammiano has published several pieces in support of the ballot. Cutting and pasting his article would be blasphemous, so read the whole thing----->
It is a great argument for countering the concern of mothers, who are the main demographic that needs to be convinced. Robert Cruickshank does a good job over at calitics of deciphering the meaning of the poll results.
(flip)
calitics:
Prop 19 is suffering from the "enthusiasm gap" seen in other polls around the state and nation, in that Democratic base voters are not planning to show up in the same numbers this fall that they did in 2008. But Prop 19 is having some trouble even with that base vote.
White voters support Prop 19 48-43. But nonwhites are opposing it by larger margins. Latinos oppose 62-36, African Americans oppose 52-40, and Asian Americans oppose 62-33. Voters under age 30 support it 52-39, but the Field Poll found the white/non-white divide exists in this age group as well. Voters between ages 30 and 65 are mostly split, with voters over age 65 strongly opposed, 57-33.
Some may read these numbers as portending doom for Prop 19. But the campaign is already moving to proactively address this. This week saw the prominent endorsement of Prop 19 by the California NAACP, whose president Alice Huffman wrote about her support for the law:
As leaders of the California NAACP, it is our mission to eradicate injustice and continue the fight for civil rights and social justice wherever and whenever we can. We are therefore compelled to speak out against another war, the so called "war on drugs." To be clear, this is not a war on the drug lords and violent cartels, this is a war that disproportionately affects young men and women and the latest tool for imposing Jim Crow justice on poor African-Americans.
This is a message that will resonate among African Americans, and likely among Latinos as well. Cast as a prison reform measure, and a fight against unfair police treatment, it is entirely likely that the numbers will show movement toward the "yes" side among those communities. And that could be enough to put Prop 19 over the top. Clearly, turnout will matter, and if Prop 19 can drive its younger supporters to the polls, that will not only help Prop 19, but Democrats on the November ballot.
Earlier polls showed that nearly 40% of potential Meg Whitman voters support marijuana legalization/regulation. The current market is not going away, drug dealers do not ask for ID-and they sell DANGEROUS drugs like cocaine, meth, and heroin. And after all, mothers should be more concerned with their children being harmed by a criminal record/broken justice system than any type of mythical marijuana overdose, or the GOP's caricature of the dangerous black man attacking white daughters. Frankly, Jerry Brown should at least support publicly the idea of 'prison reform' and 'marijuana law reform' since he's already on record as opposed to Prop.19. It looks like taking the youth vote for granted in California is a recipe for disaster because Jerry Brown hasn't wrapped this thing up by a long shot.
And I'll beat a dead horse: all the folks screaming about "fed law trumps state law!", please stop cying. dry your eyes. After all, proposition 215 is 'trumped' by federal law...yet medical marijuana is being sold at hundreds of dispensaries as I type this sentence. And the most recent case that went before SCOTUS , in which San Diego and San Bernandino counties challenged the state medical marijuana ID card program, was not heard, thus upholding a lower court's ruling that the ID card program is mandatory for all counties.
Besides, the Roberts' court is a partisan court, not a neutral observer. So there's no point letting a couple corrupt old white guys in SCOTUS deny the next step in cannabis re-legalization before we even fight or try.
*sentence amended to show "federal law" instead of 'state law'
from 'The Atlantic':
If the close polling is any indication, the federal government's reaction to Prop. 19 is an open question that may get answered after Californians vote on the measure in November.