Happy Tuesday the 13th! On that note, I beseech someone knowledgeable in the subject of superstitions: why is it that we only care about Friday the 13th? Friday is the coolest day of the work week, in no small part because it is the LAST day of the freaking work week. Should Monday the 13th be the really, really unlucky one?
And with that bit of philosophical musing out of the way, there is actually real life elections on the ballot on this Tuesday evening. In Ohio, we do have a bizarre singleton special election to replace the Democratic nominee in the GOP-leaning 3rd district. While that one has gotten virtually no media attention, a lot of media attention has been bestowed on tonights runoffs in Alabama. Crisitunity over at SSP offers an excellent preview of what is in store tonight, and you can follow the results courtesy of the Alabama Secretary of State.
As for the elections not happening tonight, we present to you the Tuesday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
KS-Sen: Tancredo switches favorites in contested GOP primary
Apparently, former Congressman Tom Tancredo can't help but messing up Senate races. He left a shitstorm in his wake in Colorado, when his crazed comments regarding Barack Obama led his favored candidate there (Ken Buck) to make the bizarre dance of disassociating himself from the comments, and then disassociating from his disassociation. Now Tancredo has flip-flopped on his favored candidate in the high-profile GOP primary in neighboring Kansas, as he was withdrew his support for Jerry Moran and thrown his support to rival Todd Tiahrt. His letter explaining the switch is pure Tancredo-ean comedy. His switch, of course, has to do with Moran not hating brown folks as much as Tancredo does. But one of his pieces of evidence for the switch had to do with Tancredo being upset at Moran for voting against "one of [Tancredo's] amendments" on immigration.
Tancredo, however, has been out of the House since 2008. He endorsed Moran in January. Short term memory loss, perhaps?
KY-Sen: Conway beats Paul in Q2 funding race, with a little help
It took a six-figure loan to his own campaign, but Jack Conway managed nevertheless to pull in more cash in the second quarter of 2010 than his Republican rival, Rand Paul. With the loan, Conway ended the quarter having raised $1.4 million for the three-month period. This put him ahead of Paul, who tallied $1.1 million for the same time period. In other Senate race news, Paul will run the balance of the race without his top adviser. Campaign chairman David Adams left the Paul campaign, apparently moving onto a 2011 gubernatorial race, instead.
LA-Sen: Vitter's vulnerabilities inspired primary challenge
We now have a more complete understanding of what inspired conservative former state Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor to decide to primary incumbent GOP Senator David Vitter. It seems that the critical mass of scandals (from the prostitution thing to the violent aide thing, and so on) led some GOPers to grow concerned that Vitter might not survive the year politically. So Traylor was encouraged to run as an unblemished alternative. Given that Traylor implies that multiple sources encouraged his entry, feel free to assume that he'll have cash at his disposal.
SC-Sen: Is one county Dem organization going Green?
Alvin Greene's improbable primary win seems to have some local Democrats ready to leave the party, at least for this one ballot. One county Democratic Party organization, the Aiken County Democrats, is apparently sending a message to its members that they'd prefer a vote for Green Party nominee Tom Clements over Greene. They have listed Clements on their "candidates page", adorned with the words "consider this?". No other office on the page offers multiple options for consideration.
THE U.S. HOUSE
NJ-03: Vulnerable Dem freshman looks secure, says internal poll
Give it the requisite grain of salt, but if a new internal poll by GQR is to be believed, freshman Democrat John Adler is on his way to a second term. The poll has Adler sitting on 51% of the vote, with former NFL lineman Jon Runyan at 36%. A conservative Indie candidate, Peter DeStefano, pulls in 12%, presumably from Runyan. Two things to temper optimism here, though: (1) an Indie candidate finishing at 12% is pretty unlikely and (2) a July poll for a House race with only 3% undecided is not completely unheard of, but it is also pretty unusual.
TN-09: Cohen gets biggest party endorsement possible
Steve Cohen is a perennial target in his Memphis-area district, the expected by-product of a white politician representing a heavily African-American district. But he got the highest possible endorsement from the African-American community today, as President Barack Obama endorsed the two-term incumbent over former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton, who has overtly injected race into the contest on several occasions.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
FL-Gov: Toss-Up race to replace Crist, according to Ipsos poll
The same Ipsos poll that is getting a lot of attention for its Senate results has notable results in the Sunshine State's open seat gubernatorial election to replace Charlie Crist. The survey shows that likely Democratic nominee Alex Sink would be in a toss-up with either hospital magnate Rick Scott or state Attorney General Bill McCollum. Sink, for the first time in a long time, actually leads McCollum (31-30), while coming within three points of the free-spending Scott (34-31). In either case, Democrat-turned-Independent Bud Chiles is well out of the running, drawing 13% in either matchup.
MD-Gov: Incumbent holds onto narrow lead over former Gov, says PPP
PPP becomes the latest to try to make sense of the intriguing gubernatorial election in Maryland, which pits current Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley against the guy he kicked out of the mansion in 2006, Republican Robert Ehrlich. PPP sees a narrow edge for the incumbent, as O'Malley clings to a three-point advantage over Ehrlich (45-42). The swing vote, according to PPP's Tom Jensen, are Democrats. That should be good news for the incumbent, but the downside is that these still-undecided voters are Democrats who do not hold a favorable opinion of O'Malley (who only gets a 60% approval rating from Democrats). He has to hope to retain these Dems in order to win.
PA-Gov: Q Poll says gubernatorial showdown still in single digits
Though some other pollsters (including, of course, the House of Ras) have had this race creeping into the double digits, the team at Quinnipiac has polled the Keystone State, and they see a single digit race between Republican frontrunner Tom Corbett and Democrat Dan Onorato. In their latest survey, Corbett leads Onorato by seven points (44-37), virtually identical to the school's last survey in Pennsylvania back in May. Point of interest: this poll was conducted before news broke of Tom Corbett's potentially disastrous commentary on jobs (saying that unemployment insurance is furthering unemployment), a comment for which his Democratic rival has blasted him over the past 36 hours.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Rasmussen, in spite of its own wishes (no doubt), can't help but find that the "double digit" lead that they once had for Sharron Angle is eroding before their very eyes. Also, while even they can't conjure up a competitive Senate race in Maryland, they see one in Colorado (and, curiously, they see the insurgent candidates as the best bets for the general).
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 47%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 40%
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 44%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 48%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 39%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 47%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%
MD-Sen: Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) 58%, Eric Wargotz (R) 33%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 46%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 43%