Depending on which pollster/election analyst you use to help you prognosticate the state of play for the 2010 elections, there are up to a half dozen Republican Senate seats in play this cycle.
If we win even 1 or 2 of them, it almost ensures that Dems keep the Senate, albeit with a narrower margin.
My prediction is D's will pick up 1 R seat, but lose 5 D seats (ND, AR, IN, DE, and one of CO, PA, IL, WA) and we end up with 55 seats.
Yes, I realize the right answer would be "all of them." But, if you had a magic wand and could choose only 1 Republican Senate seat to win, which of these 6 "in play" seats would you choose?
Florida: I love Kendrick Meek, but I've got to be honest about his chances, which are slim. However, Crist is maintaining a notable lead and seems to have a clear strategy of winning independents and moderate Dems. Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio has united the right wing, but seems to be having a very hard time getting out of the low 30s and is consistently running behind Crist by about 5 points. The only poll with Rubio still up is the Raspublican poll. Assuming Crist caucuses with the D's, I'm counting a Crist victory as a D pick up for the purposes of this poll. Current GOP Senator George LeMieux was appointed by Crist to replace Mel Martinez who retired last year after a bumpy ride as Senator and a bumpier ride as RNC Chairman.
Ohio: Classic swing state hard hit by the economy will be voting to replace retiring Senator George Voinovich. Voters will choose between former Bush official, House Rep and Washington insider Rob Portman and Democratic Lt. Governor Lee Fisher of the shirtless ad fame. Polls show a tight race with most non-Raspublican polls showing Fisher up a point or two in recent weeks. However, Portman enjoys a nearly 8:1 cash-on-hand advantage.
Missouri: Another traditional swing state that hasn't been quite so swingy in recent election cycles. Still, McCaskill picked up her seat from Jim Talent in the 06 cycle and the Congressional delegation is split 5-4 in favor of the GOP (just like the Supreme Court). Primaries are next week, but former GOP House Whip and consummate Washington insider Roy Blunt is widely predicted to be the Republican nominee. He will very likely take on MO's Sec of State Robyn Carnahan, daughter of former Governor Mel Carnahan and former Senator Jean Carnahan. Polls have this one close with Blunt up a few points, though there haven't been many non-Raspublican polls in recent months. Blunt enjoys a $900,000 CoH advantage. One of them will be replacing retiring Senator Kit Bond.
Kentucky: The battle between the batshit crazy, Tea Party champion Rand Paul and the (I've gotta say it) Opie Taylor look-alike Democratic candidate Attorney General Jack Conway to replace retiring GOP Senator Jim Bunning. Both candidates could be rising stars for their parties, Paul as the Tea Party darling and Conway as a young, new Democrat from the South (not many of those around). Non-Raspublican polls have this neck and neck with a very slight edge to Paul. In a traditional GOP state, the only real question is will Paul be able to get to the finish line without revealing anymore crazy, off the wall ideas, like going back to the Jim Crow era. Surprisingly, Conway seems to have a CoH advantage $703k vs. $319k, though Conway does have $330k in debts.
New Hampshire: Retiring Senator Judd Gregg would have been a shoe-in for reelection in a traditionally Republican state that has been swinging decidedly toward the D's, like all of the Northeast. NH has a relatively late primary on September 14 and it is not clear that Republican front-runner Kelly Ayotte, the state's former Attorney General, will be able to overcome the endorsement of Sarah Palin. Democratic Rep Paul Hodes, a longtime Netroots favorite, is keeping the race within striking distance, though is currently down by between 5 and 10 points. Hodes does, however, enjoy a CoH advantage and with no primary challenge should go into the general election with sufficient resources to remain competitive.
North Carolina: First-term Republican Senator Richard Burr appears to be the only incumbent Republican caught in a tough reelection fight. Burr's problem is he is just not very well liked, as he suffers with a very low approval rating between 35 and 40%. Democrats went to a run-off, selecting NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. Head-to-head polls show that Burr, while unpopular, maintains a modest lead over Marshall of about 7 or 8 points. And Burr enjoys a huge cash on hand advantage of $6.2 million compared with $163,000 for Marshall.