Primary was yesterday
TN has 9 reps: 4 Republicans and 5 Democrats
Possibly vulnerable
TN-04 (D)
TN-06 (D)
TN-08 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.
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District: TN-01
Location Eastern TN, bordering VA and NC map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Phil Roe (R)
VoteView 394.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 72-25 over Rob Russell
2006 margin 61-37
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 29-70
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents Michael Clark
Demographics 71st most rural (44.6%), 38th lowest income (median = $31K), 16th most White (95%), 83rd fewest Blacks (2.1%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%), 16th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Roe has $330K COH, no info on Clark.
District: TN-02
Location Eastern TN, including Knoxville. Borders NC map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Duncan (R)
VoteView 434
First elected 1988
2008 margin 69-27 over Doug Vandagriff
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin 79-19
Obama margin 34-64
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents David Hancock
Demographics 73rd most White (90.1%), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%), 40th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Duncan has $1.5 million COH, no info on Hancock.
District: TN-03
Location Shaped sort of like a barbell, running from the GA border in the south, then narrowing and running NE to the VA and KY borders, where it widens again map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Zach Wamp (R) Retiring to run for governor
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents Democrat John Wolfe, Republican Chuck Fleischman
Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Safe for the Republican. Fleischman has $290K COH, self financed. No info on Wolfe.
District: TN-04
Location Shaped like a lopsided U, starting south of Nashville in the middle of the state, south to the AL border, east to the GA border, then north to the KY border map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Lincoln Davis (D)
VoteView 221
First elected 2002
2008 margin 59-38 over Monty Lankford
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 55-44
Obama margin 34-64
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Scott DesJarlais
Demographics 4th most rural (67.9%), 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 48th most Whites (92.6%), 68th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment This is a very Republican district, but Davis (a very conservative Democrat) has always won pretty easily. Davis has almost $500K COH, DesJarlais has about $30K
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: TN-05
Location Nashville and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Jim Cooper (D)
VoteView 197
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-31 over Gerald Donovan
2006 margin 69-28
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents David Hall
Demographics 68th most Blacks (23.4%)
Assessment Safe. Cooper has nearly $700K COH, Hall has about $50K
District: TN-06
Location Central part of northern TN bordering KY map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Bart Gordon (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Democrat Brett Carter, Republican Diane Black
Demographics 63rd most rural (46.8%)
Assessment Gordon always won pretty easily, but with him out, this is a likely pickup for the Republicans. Black has about $200K COH, mostly self-financed, Carter has $100K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R
District: TN-07
Location Another strange shaped district. Most of it is in southwestern TN, bordering MS and AL, but it stretches north and east to the suburbs of Nashville, then north to the KY border map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Marsha Blackburn (R)
VoteView 407.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 69-31 over Randy Morris
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 33-66
Bush margin 2004 66-33
Current opponents Greg Rabidoux
Demographics 95th most rural (39.0%), 28th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Blackburn has over $700K COH, Rabidoux has little.
District: TN-08
Location Northwestern TN, bordering AR, MO and KY map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative John Tanner (D) Retiring
VoteView 220
First elected 1988
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 73-27
2004 margin 74-26
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Democrat Roy Herron, Republican
Stephen Fincher
Demographics 36th most rural (53.0%), 64th lowest income (median = $33K), 38th most Blacks (22.3%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment Tanner is another conservative Democrat who won easily in a Republican district. As an open seat, this is a contest. Fincher has about $400K COH, Herron about $1.1 million, both partly self-financed
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: TN-09
Location Memphis and suburbs, bordering AR and MS map
Cook PVI D + 23
Representative Steve Cohen (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2006
2008 margin No Republican
2006 margin 60-22
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 77-22
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Current opponents Charlotte Bergmann
Demographics 76th lowest income (median = $34K), 56th fewest Whites (34.9%), 10th most Blacks (59.5%), 38th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Cohen has $900K COH, Bergmann has little.