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One of the more anticipated primary days in recent weeks is upon us, as high-profile races will be decided in a quartet of states on Tuesday. The action will start early in the evening (when polls close in Florida and Vermont) and last well into the overnight hours (when polls close in Alaska).

Here's what to look for when the polls start to close tomorrow night:

ALASKA: Governor, Senate, AK-AL
The race that got all the hype here was for the Senate, with incumbent Lisa Murkowski facing off with attorney Joe Miller, who was running with the vocal support of both the Tea Party Express and Mama Griz herself. Hotline On Call looked this weekend at this race, and sees a Murkowski landslide in the making. Only one poll has shown Miller even in striking distance, and its authenticity has been questioned. If Murkowski can drop the hammer on Miller, then some of these stories about Palin's ineffectiveness as a kingmaker are surely justified. If there is any place where she can have an impact, it'd be in her old home state. Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams should easily triumph in a three way primary for the Democratic Senate nod. The race in Alaska that might prove to be more competitive could well be the primary for Governor. While virtually everyone expects Governor Sean Parnell (who took over for Palin when she...well...quit) and former Democratic state legislator Ethan Berkowitz to be the nominees after tomorrow night, both of them have legitimate opposition. In the race for the state's sole House seat (AK-AL), Republican Don Young is being primaried again, but he's likely to prevail. State legislator Harry Crawford awaits for the Democrats.

ARIZONA: Governor, Senate, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08
Speaking of much-hyped races that have falled off the radar screen, the textbook example is several thousand miles to the south of Alaska. The political world did a collective double-take in January when loudmouth former GOP Congressman J.D. Hayworth announced that he would be primarying John McCain from the right. Hayworth's campaign, however, had repeated false starts, the worst of which was the revelation that Hayworth hosted an infomercial on how to obtain government grants, a tough day job for a teabagger to own. It has to be a very telling sign that there has been no new polling released in this race in over a month. On the Democratic side, however, is where all of the action is. Tucson councilman Rodney Glassman has the most resources, and held an early edge. Former AFL-CIO director Randy Parraz released a late poll, however, that put him right in the mix. Meanwhile, Democrats thought early in the year that they had a better-than-even chance to pick up a statehouse by winning the battle for Governor here. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer was enmeshed in a multi-candidate primary, and Democratic state Attorney General Terry Goddard had the field clear for him. SB1070 changed everything in this race. Every one of Brewer's rivals (save for the only GOP opponent of SB1070 in the state of Arizona, businessman Matthew Jette) dropped out of the race, and polls show Brewer dominating the primary and leading the general, as well. Downballot, Republicans will be vying to challenge three potentially vulnerable Democrats in AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick), AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell), and AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords). And, in my favorite race of the night, watch the GOP primary in the open-seat AZ-03, where ten Republicans grace the ballot, and 19% of the vote could very well be enough to carry the day.

FLORIDA: Governor, Senate, FL-08, FL-24, FL-25
In both the primaries for Governor and Senate, it has been a pitched battle to the last minute between absurdly well-funded neophytes and classic politicos. In the GOP gubernatorial primary, the big winner might be Democrat Alex Sink. The primary between longtime insider and state AG Bill McCollum and uber-wealthy hospital magnate Rick Scott has been so ugly that Sink has gone from a double-digit underdog against the GOP nominee to a single-digit leader. Late polls in the race have not been terribly helpful: they split, with Quinnipiac putting McCollum ahead, and PPP showing Scott out front. On the Senate side, late polling is more uniform, and seems to confirm that Congressman Kendrick Meek is favored to successfully fight off the cash-infused challenge of wealthy real estate investor Jeff Greene, who it is fair to say was something of a flawed candidate from the outset. Downballot, Republicans will pick nominees in two targeted races for November: FL-08 (Alan Grayson) and FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas). The big downballot race to watch here is in FL-25, one of the better Dem pickup opportunities in the nation. It will be interesting to see if the late revelations about the myriad of troubles for GOP fave David Rivera will drop this nomination in the lap of one of his lesser-known GOP rivals.

VERMONT: Governor, VT-AL
It has received a millionth of the press bestowed on the other three states, but New England is getting in on the primary game tomorrow, as well. And in the case of the battle to replace Republican Jim Douglas as Governor of the state, the race on tap is actually a legitimate one to watch. Five serious Democrats have filed for the seat, and the terrain in the region alone indicates that any of them have a legit shot in November (although GOP Lt. Governor Brian Dubie is as good a candidate as the Republicans could have hoped for). Rasmussen is the only pollster to venture here in the last six months (and only for the general election), and they seem to indicate that Secretary of State Deb Markowitz would be the frontrunner for the Dems. With the dearth of polling here (last poll in June), it could be anyone's ballgame.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 12:30 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Stop by the Baja AZ primary liveblog (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, CS in AZ, piratedan, Dave in AZ

         tomorrow night when the polls close at 7pm local time.

    •  And look for more than one surprise in AZ (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Predictor, CS in AZ, akmk, Azazello

      Turnout will be low, only 20-25% turnout predicted by Sec, of State Ken Bennett. Less than half of those who went to the trouble of requesting an early ballot have returned them. That means only the most highly motivated voters will vote. I actually expect the McCain/Hayworth race to be much closer than predicted, with McCain emerging bruised & battered with a bare majority of Republican voters supporting him, or even less. And are Randy Parraz supporters motivated? Si se puede! We're going to take our state back from the xenophobic Party of Hate!!!!!

      "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis

      by Dave in AZ on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 01:07:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In a three way race... (0+ / 0-)

        McCain might not even get over 50%

        Sen. Reid is no different than the Republicans who demagogue the issue. He's no different than Sarah Palin, Steve King, Rush Limbaugh. Enjoy the company.

        by Jonze on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 05:45:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  According to Mama Gristle, Miller is surging! (3+ / 0-)

    From Sarah's official publicist (facebook):

    We’re pleased to learn that recent poll results show the Alaska senate race between Joe Miller, a decorated Desert Storm war veteran, former judge, and proven Commonsense Conservative, and incumbent Lisa Murkowski is getting very close. Joe Miller has surged in the polls and is gaining strong momentum, while Lisa Murkowski has taken a big downward loss.

    OH NOEZ! A "downward loss!"  

    Never mind the fact that Palin's Joe Miller yard sign appears to be blocking the road to victory.

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

    by darthstar on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 12:39:30 PM PDT

  •  I feel like were (0+ / 0-)

    so close to the elections! I'm so nervous and yet so excited. I hope these primaries help us at least somewhat.

    Support Progressive Candidates!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 12:45:32 PM PDT

  •  Glassman is falling apart. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pronin2, CS in AZ, Jonze, piratedan, Dave in AZ

    We cannot nominate him:

    Staffers for Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Rodney Glassman's campaign are jumping ship so fast it might as well be a reenactment of James Cameron's Titanic.

    Since July, three top staffers have bailed on Glassman: Political Director Junelle Cavero left last month; Field Director Kristin Gwinn resigned a couple of weeks ago; Communications Director Dawn Teo stepped down earlier this week. Sources tell me there are more resignations on the way.

    But several confidential sources inform me that Glassman's staffers left because they were not happy with the behavior of their candidate.

    These sources relayed a litany of complaints about the Glassman campaign, from Glassman berating staffers and volunteers in public, even yelling at them, to Glassman's having his brother Jeremy play a major role in the campaign (doing little or nothing, they say), and the fact that Glassman and his minions gave Democrats reason to believe he would sink millions into his bid for Senate.

    Sources also claim staffers were upset by a homophobic remark the former Tucson city councilman and onetime registered Republican reportedly made about a gay city councilwoman, saying that, "The toughest thing for me to do will be to sit next to an openly gay councilmember."

    ... Indeed, [one] source explained that the staff once rebelled when Glassman wanted to let some staffers go rather than spend any more of his own money. More than one source said Glassman was hopeful that he could get at least some of the money he'd loaned his campaign back.

    •  beat me to it (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CS in AZ, Jonze

      good job Adam!  Going to be a very interesting night in Arizona.

      I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused - Elvis Costello "The Angels Wanna Wear My Red Shoes"

      by piratedan on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 12:54:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And that's not all... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Predictor, Jonze

      Press release today from the Dougherty campaign has more on this...

      Dougherty brings to light possible FEC violations by Glassman

      PHOENIX (Aug. 22) – The Arizona Capitol Times reported Saturday that sources inside Rodney Glassman’s U.S. Senate campaign contend Glassman does not have direct control over a $500,000 personal loan Glassman claims to have made to his campaign.

      The Capitol Times cites multiple sources close to the campaign stating that "the candidate’s family" put $500,000 into the Glassman’s campaign and that "Glassman’s father is controlling the purse strings."

      Federal Election Commission regulations allow candidates to make unlimited personal loans to their campaign committees. However, FEC requires a candidate to have direct control over the money loaned to the campaign.

      Loans, including those from a candidate’s relatives, including parents and spouses, are considered campaign contributions and limited to only $2,400 in the primary and general election cycles.


      According to Duda’s article, Robert Glassman, appears to have significant influence on his son’s political decisions. Robert Glassman is a wealthy Fresno, Calif. businessman. The family owns an agribusiness conglomerate valued at hundreds of millions of dollars.

      "Numerous people close to Glassman reportedly advised him to run for secretary of state or another office instead of trying to take on McCain, but the source said Glassman’s father was only willing to pay for a U.S. Senate run," Duda writes.

      Glassman is a poseur, and the wheels are finally coming off his Bus, which should have been named The Phony Express.

      I agree, Adam B. - he cannot win this nomination.

      I strongly support Randy Parraz, but am very grateful to John Dougherty for turning up the heat on Glassman. And kudos to Tucson Citizen blogger Three Sonorans for breaking many of the important stories about the rich republican Glassman-Britz family and their attempt to buy this nomination for their son Rodney.

      •  You know what I'm thinking? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CS in AZ, piratedan, Dave in AZ

        Glassman's father donated to McCain in 2008's Presidential run, and McCain knew he'd have to go hard right in order to stave off Hayworth and the teabaggers so needed a soft landing spot once the general election rolled around and thus needed a weak Dem challenger that wouldn't put up much of a fight.  

        We've also read that Daddy Glassman was adamant that Rodney run for Senate rather than any lesser office, while other advisers were saying he should look to get his political foot in the door in lesser offices first.  

        Rodney jumped in quick, and threw around promises to spend a lot of self-funded money.  He even loaned his campaign $500K to show how serious he was.  Was this all a show to try and scare away other potential challengers?

        When the promise of big money never came through rumors have the Dems looking elsewhere and it's rumored that Cathy Eden was recruited to run as a result.

        So was Rodney's campaign all about ensuring McCain's re-election? McCain needed somebody who wouldn't put up any fight or call him on is ridiculous veer to the hard right?

        Also interesting is that Glassman has $500,000 left on the table it seems from his campaign - money that he could be spending in the last days to get his message out, however somebody seems more worried about getting that personal loan they cut back.

        Sen. Reid is no different than the Republicans who demagogue the issue. He's no different than Sarah Palin, Steve King, Rush Limbaugh. Enjoy the company.

        by Jonze on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 01:09:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  was Rodney's campaign all about ensuring McCain's (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:


          Yes, Jonze, this is exactly what I've been thinking too. The plan appears to have been to buy Rodney the Dem nomination to ensure McCain an easy ride. Now that he's unlikely to win the primary, the spending has not been happening. Glasman didn't even do any events over the weekend.

          •  well all this speculation (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            CS in AZ, Dave in AZ

            is actually quite Nixonian isn't it?  It does kind of stink to high heaven.  Glassman comes to the Great Orange Satan nd opens up a diary but doesn't say anything other than he's not John McCain and that's pretty much it.  From the trail of bread crumbs it doesn't lead to a very happy ending.

            As for who is left, it looks like it's between Parraz and Dougherty amd I'd be okay with either candidate.  Neither will let McCain off the hook for what he said and when he said it.  The other part of the issue is what could they offer in the way of ideas to counter the Right Wing noise machine.  If the Dems want to send McCain packing, he's doing everything he can to help them by his erratic behavior over the last two years.

            I just wonder if McCain had a crisis of confidence after he won the Republican Nom for president back in 2008 because he's had difficulty making a decision since that time that hasn't blown up on him.

            I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused - Elvis Costello "The Angels Wanna Wear My Red Shoes"

            by piratedan on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 01:27:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, I'm not sure I buy the speculation (0+ / 0-)

              that the Glassman candidacy was to ensure a McCain victory. What's telling is what Jonze pointed out - in Glassman's final pre-primary FEC report he lists $578k Cash On Hand - just slightly less than what he's spent so far. And he lists debt as $500k. I think the reports of Daddy Glassman controlling the purse strings is dead on. Daddy was willing to lend $500k to make it look like the campaign was flush with cash to encourage donors & backers, but made Rodney keep at least that much in cash on hand, to pay back the loan if the campaign ends tomorrow night.

              "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis

              by Dave in AZ on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 01:40:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  So why do you think the Glassman-Britz family (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                mega-rich republican agro-business and McCain donors, wanted to bankroll their son challenging McCain for his senate seat? That's the question I keep asking myself ever since reading that the money came from his dad.

                •  Well, that's just it - (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  they didn't "bankroll" their son challenging McCain, they gave the illusion of bankrolling it with loans, to scare off any other Dem from entering the race. And when that didn't work, they made sure their boy kept enough cash on hand to pay back the loan if he fails in the primary, which looks increasingly like he will.

                  I've seen it repeated several times that they contributed to McCain in 2008, but no proof, but if they did, maybe they just didn't like Obama? Rodney's ego knows no limit, so maybe he convinced them enough that McCain was vulnerable in this anti-incumbent year, so they loaned him the $$$ for him to give it a shot, but covered their backsides & $$$.  

                  "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis

                  by Dave in AZ on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 02:28:07 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  OK, had to go look it up, here's the list per (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    piratedan, Dave in AZ

                    The Three Sonorans article:

                    Mr. Robert Glassman (DLM Partners), (Zip code: 93790) $1000 to
                    Keep in mind that 2008 was just the last election cycle when Obama was running. And who was Obama running against?

                    David Britz (DLM) – John McCain 2008 McCain Victory California
                    David Britz (DLM) – John McCain 2008 Inc.
                    Not just one, but two contributions to John McCain in 2008, in addition to the contributions to the Republican Congressional Committee!

                    At least Rodney Glassman, as a Democrat, has never continued in his family’s Republican tradition?

                    Glassman, Rodney (Gateway Ice Rink/Owner), (Zip code: 85712) $500 to KOLBE FOR CONGRESS on 05/05/04
                    You should all remember Republican Jim Kolbe from Tucson, a good friend of John McCain...

                    It looks like Rodney's dad did not donate direclty to McCain, but other members of the family did, and it's unquestionably a mega-rich republican family. So it's a mystery why they wanted to put up money to help Rodney run a Dem, if he really is a Dem...

  •  Doug Tudor in FL-12 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fladem, donnamarie, Predictor

    was endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus today.  We're excited for Doug!  

    Also, I heard (clueless) Charlie Cook on MSNBC say that Florida Democrats want Greene to win the Senatorial primary because Meek can't win in the general.  I don't know anyone who wants Greene to win.  Cook must be talking to DNC member and troublemaker Jon Ausman who is on Greene's payroll.

    "Can I be quoted as yawning?" --Eric Jotkoff, Florida Democratic Party, on the shocking news that Democrats want to expose Republican corruption.

    by Susan S on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 12:48:12 PM PDT

  •  errr, under Arizona, "fallen," not "falled" off (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999, Predictor


  •  AZ Senate - Dem side (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CS in AZ

    has drawn more than a few diarists in as folks push their favorite dark horses in this race (myself included). More bad news for the Dem frontrunner here in a noted liberal rag out of Phoenix:

    Some of us still feel that the AZ Senate side can be competitive with the right candidate because McCain has proven to be quite hypocritcal when it comes to taking a stance on any political issue.  Plus the latest ads and statements are indications that have shown that he's willing to promote any position if it will just help him get elected.  This has the baggers po'ed, plus a lot of old school Republican/Libertarians po'ed (call them the Goldwater crowd).  Anyone else that thought he may have been a reasonable man has been turned off in a big time way.

    If a viable alternative is presented, who knows what could happen, but the Dem side of the ballot is anything but a done deal, with three fairly earnest candidates running against a "slick willy" type. We have elected Dems statewide here before (Napolitano was the most recent example). It will be interesting to see how the grind is completed.

    I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused - Elvis Costello "The Angels Wanna Wear My Red Shoes"

    by piratedan on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 12:53:12 PM PDT

  •  alaska dem gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    berkowitz is far from a foregone conclusion.  
    i expect his primary opponent hollis french will take that race.

  •  VT-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Brian Dubie is as good a candidate the repubs could hope for because he generally keeps his mouth shut and doesnt show up for debates.

    •  Matt Dunne is best to take on Dubie in VT (0+ / 0-)

      Dunne is a super smart progressive who's much better at fund raising and management than the other candidates.  He's a former head of Americorps*Vista who also has been an executive at Google and other software companies.

      •  I've met Dunne (0+ / 0-)

        When pressed on positions, Dunne dodges. His campaign centerpiece is broadband access across Vermont, but he ignores that due to our DC delegation we just got two large grants which will accomplish exactly that, no matter who the next governor is. It's also hard to see how broadband, valuable as it is, will save our dairy farmers, or address other core Vermont needs.

        •  Dunne's centerpiece is jobs & good government (0+ / 0-)

          Dunne talks alot about using technology to make government more efficient but I wouldn't call that the centerpiece of his campaign.   He's got strong proposals on green jobs, health insurance, higher ed (free state school tuition for kids who do service and agree to live in VT for awhile) and economic development, for instance.

          And those broadband grants wont implement themselves -- would be good to have a tech savvy leader in the exec branch.

    •  Well ... (0+ / 0-)

      Friends of mine, active in Democratic politics in Vermont, personally like Dubie. They report that unlike the current governor, Douglas, Dubie's a very nice guy.

      That said, all the Democratic candidates are good. Shumlin's best. He's got the most guts, the clearest positions. He's the only one brave enough to openly favor ending pot prohibition. He's focused on the strong correlation between illiteracy and going to prison (90% of Vermont's prisoners are functionally illiterate). He owns a highly successful, highly computerized student travel business, and knows precisely how Vermont's government can save many millions by bringing its creaky bureaucracies fully into the computer age. And he's bright, good on his feat, and direct.

      Plus, unlike Dubie, who's an airline pilot, Shumlin knows how to run a business, and what businesses need from the state in order to prosper - which is adequate investment in public infrastructure, not tax breaks!

  •  dailykos spam (0+ / 0-)

    when will that stupid pop-up be turned off? thanks!

  •  I hope McCain loses in the general election (5+ / 0-)

    Republicans secret dream = the impeachment of Bo the Dog LOL

    by LaurenMonica on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 01:01:38 PM PDT

  •  Trippi (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mjd in florida

    has the most oversized reputation in politics.

    When has he ever won ANYTHING?

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 01:24:13 PM PDT

  •  A Vermont Republican would be considered... (0+ / 0-)

    ...a raving socialist commie something-or-other in Oklahoma. So there's that.

    Still, I'd like to see a "D" under that beautiful golden dome.

    /Vermont native.

  •  I would like to see one of the frontpagers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    address the top three races in Florida that "were" Republican seats in our top four state positions...Governor, Attorney General and 2nd Senate seat.  (if we count "corporatist, C-Streeter Bill Nelson as a Democrat)

    It looks like all three of them will be lost by the the Republican Party of Florida and their Tea Party rubes/cohorts.

    Moderate Floridians are enraged with all of the GOP state corruption and tea party radicalism.  

    Charlie Crist (non-affiliated), Alex Sink and Dan Gelber are the moderation that Floridians will elect.  (Alexandra and Dan may be lucky that their opponents went tea bagger crazy...they are the best and most qualified)

    "One punches you in the nose and the other kicks you in the groin".....Axelrod commenting on the right and left

    by mjd in florida on Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 02:06:15 PM PDT

  •  Alaska Democratic Governor primary not a slam (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    dunk for Berkowitz.

    While virtually everyone expects Governor Sean Parnell (who took over for Palin when she...well...quit) and former Democratic state legislator Ethan Berkowitz to be the nominees after tomorrow night, both of them have legitimate opposition.

    Source please?  

    Anchorage Daily News has endorsed Hollis French as have many good hard-working Alaska Democrats.  

    Current State Senator Hollis French is first class and has an equal, if not better chance, than Berkowitz.  

    While Berkowitz has his followers, this is clearly not a slam dunk nor "virtual everyone expects" kind of race.

    Expect the Democrats to unite immediately after the primary, regardless of the outcome.

  •  Keep an eye on Democratic candidate Scott McAdams (0+ / 0-)

    who is running for Lisa Murkowski's Senate seat in Alaska.  Give him some support if you want to see a tsunami shift in the U.S. Senate.

    Murkowski has raised $2.5 million.  McAdams $25,000.
    Kossacks can help level the playing field.

    McAdams attended Netroots Nation and is an unapologetic Democrat who isn't afraid to say to "independents" who claim that Begich is "a little too liberal for their tastes that "I am way more liberal than Senator Begich." for more info from McAdams on the issues and to donate through Act Blue

    He eloquently outclasses Lisa Murkowski on the issues, while at the same time being a down-to-earth, grounded, real person that will prove to be a credible candidate who, with support, can win in this state.

  •  Also, watch "Give 'em hell Harry". (0+ / 0-)

    Alaska state legislator Harry Crawford will be giving Rep. Don Young a real race this year.

  •  palin endorsements (0+ / 0-)

    If Murkowski can drop the hammer on Miller, then some of these stories about Palin's ineffectiveness as a kingmaker are surely justified. If there is any place where she can have an impact, it'd be in her old home state.

    not defending palin, but if she backs a bunch of long shot wingnut candidates and they still don't win, does it logically follow that she was ineffective?  or just that they didn't have a chance in hell, with or without her help?  i don't think it's all about backing the likely winner.  and her in-state approval ratings dipped below 50 percent while she was still in office, if i recall correctly.  and AK is still her home state.

    •  Palin's not so popular in Alaska since she (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      became the "quitter".  (And I might add, since folks got to know her better.)

      Lisa has the $$$$$$.  Though Joe Miller has some bucks also from tea-party support as well as his ardent supporters.

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