The thesis of this post is a simple one. That just a little change in the national political climate can result in a larger change in a number of marginal elections, and that the President needs to act boldly to make this change. In short he needs to pick a smart battle and fight it with everything he has. I have a recommendation for what that battle should be -- more spending. OK, before everyone shouts "but that is political suicide" the independent voter, blah blah blah, let me explain.
Strategically, this should be a big GOP win. While Obama isn’t as unpopular as Clinton in ’94, he is still only at 47ish approval. His measured style, and genuine and ultimately misguided attempts to reach across the aisle made him look weak to a base looking for the lefty version of Ronald Reagan. Sure by any objective measure he has accomplished more than either Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton at the same time, but it doesn’t matter, because the expectations, unfairly, were for more. The GOP strategy of never give in has been effective in making him look weak, and weakness equals discontent. A friend of mine, who is a life-long Democrat, but whose wife is a rabid Fox News watching Republican recently told me, "look, I am just tired of defending the guy. Why can’t he defend himself?"
So from a high level, national meme, perspective the GOP is going to clean up. While the Gallup poll is undoubtedly an outlier, the general GOP preference in the national congressional ballot of 5% reflects the general mood well. Who wants to support a party that looks weak?
But when you get into the race by race analysis, the national strength doesn’t always translate. Every tea party primary winner makes a race more competitive than it should be. While an upset is still improbable, the fact that Rand Paul makes Kentucky competitive is astonishing to me. That Harry Reid is back from the dead in NV is incredible. That an anti-immigrant Tea Partier has won the nomination in Florida – Florida where the latino vote is more reliably GOP than anywhere else, is just incredible. And of course there are more examples. Alaska?
So what is my thought? Kind of a simple one. I am thinking that a little movement on the national front, can translate into big movement locally against the GOP and for the Democrats. The local factors can multiply a little national improvement to change many marginal elections.
So what can the President do to change the national tone? If it were me, it would be a second stimulus package, funded by letting the Bush tax cuts on the rich expire. I would make the bulk of the package additional unemployment benefits and state aid. Prevent massive lay offs and service cutbacks at the state level. Very hard to oppose something that your Governor back home would love to have.
Sure Boehner and the GOP will scream that the President is out of control, and that if he can't stop spending, they will do it for him. To me, that is the opportunity. Embrace the spending. Stand up and say, "we are at 10% unemployment. Anybody who says we have to stop spending is saying they don’t care about the Americans who are currently down on their luck. Down on their luck because of a financial crisis caused by Republican fat cats who ran the Government to benefit the rich and not the rest of us. Answer me this? Why is it that the Republican always want to cut spending when the average joe needs it most?"
That's what I would do.