Getting a handle on what polls mean and what they measure is easier said than done.For instance, this year the Gallup poll's Congressional generic ballot results have fluctuated wildly, for no clearly discernable reason, almost from week-to-week. Unlike many pollsters, Gallup does not “weight” its samples by the party identification of respondents.In the current political era, this approach is likely to give the GOP an advantage on the generic ballot. Gallup’s methodology, if not corrected by weighting based on party identification, is likely to under sample Democrats and give the GOP an advantage relative to the Democratic Party on the Congressional generic ballot.
This is a particular concern going into this fall’s midterm elections. The Democratic Party now has a clear and decisive lead party ID lead over the Republican Party. In a June survey conducted for NDN by communications research and consultation firm, Frank N. Magid Associates, the Democrats held a 47% vs. 33% edge over the Republicans with 19% of the electorate claiming to be totally unaffiliated independents. This distribution is matched almost identically by figures from the Pew Research Center’s three most recent surveys, conducted from late July to late August. Across those three polls, a little under half of Americans (46%) identified or leaned toward the Democrats while about a third (36%) said they were Republicans and 14% were unattached independents.
Unlike 1994, when Bill Clinton and the Democrats were in the same position that Barack Obama and his party are in now, the Democratic Party has a clear party ID lead within an electorate that is demographically restructured and more open to activist government than at any time since the 1960s. This provides the Democrats with a base sizable enough to withstand a GOP wave if they can rally that base and get it to the polls in November. That is the big political question this year. The answer to it will determine the outcome of the 2010 midterm elections and will, in the end, be far more crucial than what happens with “angry independents” or “engaged Republicans.”
A recent posting on Pollster.com indicates that recent surveys suggest the Democratic base may, in fact, now be returning home, possibly accounting for the apparent recent tightening of the Gallup generic ballot. It is for this reason that Democrats should be encouraged by President Obama’s post-Labor Day campaign appearances that are so clearly designed to appeal to and rally Democratic voters.