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The weekend edition of the Wrap is a bit on the light side today, in contrast to the deluge of data and stories that marked the entire week here at the Wrap.

That is not to say, however, that there aren't numbers to note. You can possibly add another GOP-held House seat to the target lists (especially if the Dem candidate's internal polling is legit, and you might be able to scratch one Dem-held seat off of the target lists, if a public poll is correct.

Also, courtesy of a heads-up bit of investigation from a Kossack and Swing State fan, we have a little info about a rookie pollster who put one Democratic freshman in deep peril earlier this week.

All that (and more!) in the weekend edition of the Wrap...


FL-Sen: Crist fires back hard at GOP "audit"
You might recall that a while back, the Florida Republican Party released an audit of their financial records under previous RPOF head (and Charlie Crist ally) Jim Greer, alleging a number of irregularities. The candidate decided to fire back today, releasing records which would seem to counter one of the charges within that audit. He demanded an apology (good luck with that, Governor), and took a sideways shot at the party, saying their time would be better served investigating the financial irregularities of their own nominee, Marco Rubio.

KS-Sen: Open seat race a non-starter, according to SurveyUSA
It is doubtful that too many folks had the open-seat Senate race in the Sunflower State as a potential pickup opportunity, but new numbers out of the state from SurveyUSA make that pessimism appear totally justified. The SUSA poll puts GOP Congressman Jerry Moran at 66% of the vote, with Democratic nominee Lisa Johnston lagging well behind at 24%.

OH-Sen: Pessimistic Q poll claims Portman is up 20 in Buckeye State
The same Quinnipiac poll that had Republicans dominant in the gubernatorial election has a rather predictable result in the Senate election, as well. The pollster has Republican Rob Portman at 55% of the vote, and Democratic Lt. Governor Lee Fisher at 35% of the vote. Of course, as noted in Thursday's edition of the Wrap, the sample here has one hell of a slant, with a R-to-D ratio that appears to be more vast than any exit poll in Ohio in recent memory (including 1994).

WI-Sen: GOP nominee Johnson--stimulus hypocrite (yes...again)
This guy is almost unreal: right-wing and "small government" advocate Ron Johnson, the Republican nominee challenging third-term Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, has made no secret of his contempt for the Obama stimulus bill. So, given past GOP precedent on the matter, it should surprise absolutely no one that Johnson, as the head of the board for a local opera house, lobbied to get a seven-figure grant from stimulus funds to renovate said opera house.

Please...make every effort to mask your surprise.


KS-04: Dem internal has it as a toss-up, even SUSA has it close
When the Democratic candidate's internal polling has it as a two-point race, and the race is close according to even the Eeyore of 2010 electoral pollsters (at least from the Democratic perspective), then it is safe to say this is a race to watch. Such is the circumstance in the Wichita-based 4th district, where Democrat Raj Goyle is either down by two points or ten points, according to new polling. The SurveyUSA poll has Republican Mike Pompeo at 50%, with Goyle back at 40%. But a Gerstein-Agne poll taken on behalf of the Goyle campaign has a much closer race (46-44 Pompeo). Goyle was one of the better DCCC recruits of the cycle, a prodigious fundraiser who has an elevated profile as a result of his tenure as a state legislator.

MI-09: About that new pollster in town....
Props to DK and SSP community member Paleo, who did a little digging and unmasked the identity of the Rossman Group, the Michigan pollster who ran a survey in Michigan's 9th district and claimed that Dem incumbent Gary Peters was down four points. As it happens, the pollster is partnered with The Perricone Group, a PR company which is headed by a former GOP state legislative staffer. So, perhaps a dash of salt should be added to the poll. And, in a quick editorial note, media outlets should really work to disclose those kind of potential partisan relationships.

MN-06: Bachmann-Clark at the periphery of competitiveness
The new SurveyUSA poll out of the suburban/exurban Minnesota 6th has to be a source of at least a little frustration for Democrats. The poll shows a race in which the Democrat is definitely within striking distance, but where there is a enough of a margin that it wouldn't be fair to declare it a toss-up, either. The poll shows Republican Michele Bachmann at 49%, with Democrat Taryl Clark sitting at 40% of the vote. Independent candidates snare 7% of the vote, meaning there are few voters still undecided (a hallmark, to be fair, of SUSA's polling).

NY-20: Public poll gives Democratic incumbent unambiguous lead
Arguably the best poll to close the week for the Democrats comes out of upstate New York, where the new Siena poll in the New York 20th district gives Democratic incumbent Scott Murphy a double-digit edge over Republican challenger Chris Gibson (54-37). Unlike most other House polls this cycle, Murphy has a wide edge with Independent voters. If there is one note of caution, it is that Siena sees a fluid electorate: only about half of the voters are absolutely committed to their vote for November.

PA-10: Scandal threatens to distract, derail GOP challenger
These, one would suppose, are not the kind of headlines that Republican nominee Tom Marino wants to be making this late in the campaign cycle. Marino is facing tough questions about a business reference he offered to a Pennsylvania businessman who was seeking a gaming license. Marino, a US Attorney at the time, claimed that he got written permission to offer the reference to Louis DeNaples, a former felon investigated in the past for ties to organized crime. An anonymous sources within the DOJ has come forward, saying no such permission was given. Marino went on to work for DeNaples after resigning his post as USA.


AZ-Gov: Trainwreck debate appearance now immortalized in campaign ad
Republican Governor Jan Brewer, in the wake of her utterly disastrous appearance in a debate with Democratic challenger Terry Goddard, promptly clammed up. No more debates for her, the Brewer campaign promised. Denied the opportunity for new material, the Goddard campaign has elected to make do with the original, turning Brewer's deer-in-the-headlights performance into a trio of new campaign ads. The jewel of the ads is the tagline--"Is this the best Arizona can do?"

AR-Gov: Democratic incumbent easily leads in re-election bid
Democratic Governor Mike Beebe is well on his way to a second term in office, according to a new survey out at the close of the week from Mason Dixon. The new MD poll puts Beebe at 54% of the vote, well ahead of Republican Jim Keet, who trails with 33%. Beebe was elected for the first time in 2006, easily defeating former Congressman Asa Hutchinson.

GA-Gov: New I-A poll says Barnes has pulled even in Peach State
Perhaps Nathan Deal's personal financial travails are eroding confidence in his ability to govern the state of Georgia. Absent that, it is hard to explain the sudden surge of Democrat Roy Barnes, who has pulled even (42-42) with Deal in the latest poll in the race by Insider Advantage. The pollster also sees Libertarian candidate John Monds at 5% of the vote, implying that a Decemebr runoff may well be possible here.

IL-Gov: GOP pollster says Dem governor down 10 in Land of Lincoln
Local GOP pollsters We Ask America, having just put the Senate race in Illinois as a toss-up, find a slightly more comfortable margin for the GOP in the state's gubernatorial race. The margin sits at ten points between Republican challenger Bill Brady (42%) and Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn (32%). In a sign of how dissatisfied Illinois voters may well be with their options here, ten percent of voters indicate that they will support the Green, Independent, or Libertarian candidates in the field.


The House of Ras isn't out of narrative-setting mode yet. No doubts that the NRSC and the RGA are going to be blasting out the newest Ras numbers out of Massachusetts, Wisconsin and New Hampshire (and those New Hampshire numbers look really, really optimistic). They also poll Vermont's lone House seat, while curiously (albeit consistently) refusing to poll Delaware's lone House seat. Anyone have any speculation on why that might be?!

IN-Sen: Dan Coats (R) 50%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%
MA-Gov: Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 45%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 5%
NH-Gov: Gov. John Lynch (D) 48%, John Stephen (R) 46%
VT-AL: Rep. Peter Welch (D) 64%, Paul Beaudry (R) 30%
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R) 51%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 44%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 07:22 PM PDT.


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Comment Preferences

  •  re Crist... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    " a while back" happened to be yesterday...

    I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man's reasoning powers are not above the monkey's. - Mark Twain

    by route66 on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 07:26:06 PM PDT

  •  The only poll that matters is the one (6+ / 0-)

    on election day

  •  Alaska is rocking and rolling. New diary (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, oceanview, reddbierd, jnhobbs, TofG

    up.  Scott McAdams responds to Murkowski's anouncement that she will launch a write-in campaign for Alaska's U.S. Senate seat for the next six years.

    Grab some popcorn, donate to McAdams, and feel good about shaping the U.S. Senate for the next six years.

  •  Think Georgians are remembering Bert Lance? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Might be too long ago.....

    The last time we broke a president, we ended up with Reagan.

    by Bush Bites on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 07:30:52 PM PDT

  •  Alaska (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    reddbierd, TofG

    I wish they'd stop with the idea that whatever she does, the Dem is toast. If she gets a fair chunk of her primary vote, he gets his (plus a bit of hers), McAdams gets 90+% of Dems, and they split the rest, how is he "irrelevant" exactly?

  •  Holy Moley . . when Michelle Freakazoid Bachmann (5+ / 0-)

    is polling that high in Minnesota---where there's at least some semblance of quality public education---we've sort of got Exhibit A that there's no Democratic narrative that's seriously working against insane wingnut GOPers.

    At some point in the very near future, Dems are going to have to be calling these idiots straight out. "She's crazy." "She's insane." No more pussy footing around with these freaks.

  •  Massachusetts numbers were reported differently (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oceanview, reddbierd

    on WBUR yesterday (big NPR station in Boston). It was repeating many times yesterday afternoon and evening, so I have the numbers by heart: Patrick 42%, Baker 38%, and Cahill 11%. (Margin of error: 4.5%.)

    Did Ras really release one poll yesterday and one today, or were there two sets of numbers from the one poll? If so, why the discrepancy? They did run a clip from Rasmussen saying that the Patrick and Baker support was solid, but Cahill's was significantly softer.

    It was pretty big news that Cahill was down to 11% (and that Ras hadn't included Green/Rainbow's Jill Stein); if Cahill had been at 5%, it would have been huge news.

    What's up?

    © sardonyx; all rights reserved

    by sardonyx on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 07:40:55 PM PDT

  •  Fisher had a pretty effective ad, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, reddbierd, Corneliusmingus

    nailing Portman's record of failure and outsourcing in the Bush White house.

    It is magnificent, but it is not war, it is madness. Pierre Bosquet on the charge of the Light Brigade

    by flhiii88 on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 07:45:03 PM PDT

    •  Portman should be unelectible... (5+ / 0-)

      He was bush's budget man when Bush ran up a record deficit and Bush's outsource point man that ravaged the mid-west.  

      But he has the Bush donor list and has 10x the money of Fisher.

      Ohio makes little sense to me.

      Sen. Reid on GOP threat of filibuster on tax cuts - "by Republican logic, until rich CEOs get what they want, middle-class families can't get what they need."

      by Jonze on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 07:47:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't get any of the mid-West... (5+ / 0-)

        Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana...

        Sen. Reid on GOP threat of filibuster on tax cuts - "by Republican logic, until rich CEOs get what they want, middle-class families can't get what they need."

        by Jonze on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 07:48:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I've been living here seven years (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        and it makes little sense to me, too.

        Granted, I actually like it here. It's pretty. It's surprising. But what the FUCK is up with the electorate here? Bob Taft gets reelected, and Ted Strickland is heading to defeat? An amazing progressive champion in Sherrod Brown knocks off a Republican incumbent, and then, four years later, a head of hair who was Bush's budget director appears to be cruising to victory?

        It all makes me shake my head in wonder.

        •  it's a swing state (0+ / 0-)

          People aren't going to just run to the Democrats because of Bush just because he was Bush. If the economy were booming, then Fisher would be running away with it.

          People panic too much on this site.

          by thematt523 on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 08:07:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not so (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            If the economy were booming, Strickland would be running away with it. Fisher's problems are deeper. And some of his problems have bled over to Strickland. The undoing may take years. I still encounter people angry about what happened to Mary Boyle in 1998.

            De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08

            by anastasia p on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 09:33:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  The worst thing is (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus, LordMike

          Kasich's corruption would make Taft's look like child's play. Kasich is virtually TELLING us he'll be corrupt, and that he doesn't give a shit about the economy. Strickland has been creating jobs, won awards for best climate for small business creation in the nation three years in a row, started to move ahead on clean energy and sustainable jobs, put a lid of skyrocketing tuitions, finally started to address school funding even though the economy prevented doing everything many of us would like to see, and created universal child health coverage.

          Kasich would undo all of that. If he gets elected, I'm predicting unemployment over 15% by this time next year. But as he has publicly promised, his corporate cronies will be rolling on our tax dollars — and we won't be allowed to know how much they're taking. He said so.

          De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08

          by anastasia p on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 09:26:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Me either, and I've lived here for decades (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        But it's enough to make me want to go home to Chicago. I'm more stressing about Kasich — if he gets elected, the state is through. The economy will disintegrate — it's extremely fragile here, just starting to show glimmers of life after a decade and a half of Republican destruction — and corruption will run rampant again. Kasich should be even more unelectable. At least Portman has a smooth, friendly, sane demeanor and some ideas, although I don't agree with any of them. Kasich has one of that. If Portman were a teabagger, he'd make an easier target, but he's staying away from all that.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08

        by anastasia p on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 09:23:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Ron Johnson should be toast... (5+ / 0-)

    with the blatant hypocrisies, which I believe is at three whoppers now.  However Russ is still in an dog fight because nothing is sticking.  

    If Tom Marino isn't dubbed "Casino Marino" from here on out than Carney isn't even trying. This scandal should finish Marino - it reeks.  He gives a character reference to somebody he is supposed to be investigating, the guy gets the casino and Manino goes to work for the guy for $250,000 a year until he decides to run for Congress this year...

    Sen. Reid on GOP threat of filibuster on tax cuts - "by Republican logic, until rich CEOs get what they want, middle-class families can't get what they need."

    by Jonze on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 07:45:42 PM PDT

  •  We should use this opportunity to give (7+ / 0-)

    a big push for Tarryl Clark.


    Her Facebook Page.

    Her website.

       I've been watching this race a bit and Tarryl is working her butt off. She is doing the leg work but I haven't seen much enthusiasm from DKos. We can't really be that enamored of the Medusa from Minnesota can we?

    Solidarity Now. Join the Union...Washington D.C. 10-02-10. {Dems: Tax cuts for the middle class. Repubs: Tax cuts for millionaires.}

    by reddbierd on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 07:48:43 PM PDT

  •  Got polled by Rasmussen today... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, askew

    Caller ID comes up as "wireless caller..." not Rasmussen.  That's got to filter out those who don't take anonymous calls unless they know the number.  Which way does that break politically, I wonder?  I'm not sure why I even answered the call, I was in a generous mood I guess.

    Anyway, it was just the presidential daily, hopefully I bumped it up a bit for tomorrow.

  •  This poll wrap-up is very interesting and I much (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    appreciate the snapshot it provides, but it's a little hard sometimes to digest.  For those of us who are a bit slow, I wonder if it might be helpful to always add a single letter suffix for the candidate's party (for example: "Nathan Deal (R)"   Assuming he actually is a Republican: I think maybe it doesn't say above).  This would help me digest this info more quickly.  (I'm sure it's just me, but I sometimes have to read an entry twice to assimilate the impact for unfamiliar races.)  Not sure it would always make sense, but consistency in the order in which the parties are presented would help too.
    Also, though a much bigger thing to do, it seems like graphics would be really helpful.  Like maybe a bar graph with the Dem percentage in blue on the left, GOP percentage in red on the right, and Independents in other colors in the center.  Maybe the names would fit in the graph, or could be below.  And hey, while I'm in dreamland, how about a link to a map of their district so we can see if it's urban or rural, seriously gerrymandered, etc?  I know there are widgets around: DailyKos had one for the 2008 elections.  Wikipedia has these for some districts, too... with info about the current office holder.
    I'm sure I sound ungrateful for all the work you do, Steve, but I'm really not: this is a very useful regular post, and I really appreciate the explanations in text about various issues like sampling, poll timing relative to recent events, or whatever.  But these suggestions (in decreasing order of value and clearly increasing order of effort to implement) would lead to a much improved absorption rate on my part, anyway.  Sometimes less (real estate in this case) is more, if it still says the same thing but can be consumed faster and more accurately.
    Thanks, Steve, for doing this daily synopsis!

  •  Hawaii (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, askew

    Don't forget this is primary day in Hawaii, with a key race for Governor between ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie and ex-Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman.

    Polls close in just a minute, at 6:00 HST (12:00 EDT).

  •  Why I LIKE the Ras WI Senate poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, TruthOfAngels

    I've been offering Wisconsin Republicans a 100,000 vote spread on even money for serious bucks ($50 minimum) on the Senate race, but none have yet agreed to wager. These bogus numbers might help me reel in some suckers.

    Agricultural hemp is "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs."

    by ben masel on Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 10:19:34 PM PDT

  •  I'll never understand why there's never (0+ / 0-)

    a peep about Pennsylvania.  It is tottering on the brink with Sestak/Toomey and Corbett/Onorato.

    The true danger in politics is when people in power elevate ideological purity over their basic humanity, empathy, and common sense. -- thereisnospoon

    by alliedoc on Sun Sep 19, 2010 at 08:13:49 PM PDT

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