Until the most recent poll by Quinnipiac University, Democrat Andrew Cuomo the son of former governor Mario Cuomo and current AG, was considered to be the walk away, hands down winner for NY governor. Now Carl Paladino, the tea bagger who won the Republican nomination, has closed to within 6 points.
You can find the full Albany Times Union story here but the gist of it is summed up with this:
According to a poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University, voters surveyed prefer Cuomo over Paladino 49 percent to 43 percent. In previous polls, Cuomo led by 20 points or more.
Everyone expected a bounce after getting the nomination, but this is far beyond a normal bounce. Any coverage of this race has virtually assumed that Cuomo was already the victor, in pre-primary polls he showed leads as high as 40 points over either possible Republican, and it's not like he has plunged in popularity.
The Quinnipiac poll found Cuomo's job approval as attorney general remains high at 67 percent, and 51 percent of voters view him favorably, compared to 36 percent for Paladino. Lazio was not included in the poll.
I don't see this poll as reason to panic, but it is further sign that the angry mood of the electorate cannot be taken lightly, and angry people sometimes make regrettable choices.
There are stumbling blocks in front of Paladino besides just his crazy self. Bloomberg has endorsed Cuomo, and even Rudy G. isn't ready to commit to Paladino just yet.
Rick Lazio who opposed him in the Rep. primary has a ballot position on the Conservative Party line, but he's not ready to endorse him yet either.
Lazio refused to say whether he would give up the only ballot line he won last week, as the Conservative Party nominee.
"I have every intention of being a strong voice for the next six weeks," Lazio said. He insisted neither of the major-party candidates offered serious policy discussions, and slammed both campaigns for using "rude discourse" better suited for the locker room or barnyard.
Paladino's win, Lazio said, had registered with him. His opening line was a reference to Paladino's mad-as-hell mantra: "My name is Rick Lazio; I'm mad as heck."
"I get the primal scream thing," he said of the voter antipathy that elevated his opponent. But "anger by itself is not a platform."
So, it is possible this will be another battle in the Repuiblican civil war and Lazio will pull a Murkowski and spilt the vote, butb this needs to be a wake up call for Cuomo to start turning up the volume a bit.
Cuomo has said he wants to stay above the fray, but Wednesday's result could prompt a change in tactics for a campaign that's been built around how the new executive will govern in January -- as if his election in November is merely an afterthought.
Lets go Andrew, Mass. is just to the East, don't pull a Coakley on us and get beat.
I apparently hadn't even finished writing this diary when new results by Siena, quoted in this diary by Davidsfr gives a much different result