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Until the most recent poll by Quinnipiac University,  Democrat Andrew Cuomo the son of former governor Mario Cuomo and current AG, was considered to be the walk away, hands down winner for NY governor. Now Carl Paladino, the tea bagger who won the Republican nomination, has closed to within 6 points.

You can find the full Albany Times Union story here but the gist of it is summed up with this:

According to a poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University, voters surveyed prefer Cuomo over Paladino 49 percent to 43 percent. In previous polls, Cuomo led by 20 points or more.

Everyone expected a bounce after getting the nomination, but this is far beyond a normal bounce. Any coverage of this race has virtually assumed that Cuomo was already the victor, in pre-primary polls he showed leads as high as 40 points over either possible Republican, and it's not like he has plunged in popularity.

The Quinnipiac poll found Cuomo's job approval as attorney general remains high at 67 percent, and 51 percent of voters view him favorably, compared to 36 percent for Paladino. Lazio was not included in the poll.

I don't see this poll as reason to panic, but it is further sign that the angry mood of the electorate cannot be taken lightly, and angry people sometimes make regrettable choices.
There are stumbling blocks in front of Paladino besides just his crazy self. Bloomberg has endorsed Cuomo, and even Rudy G. isn't ready to commit to Paladino just yet.
Rick Lazio who opposed him in the Rep. primary has a ballot position on the Conservative Party line, but he's not ready to endorse him yet either.

Lazio refused to say whether he would give up the only ballot line he won last week, as the Conservative Party nominee.

"I have every intention of being a strong voice for the next six weeks," Lazio said. He insisted neither of the major-party candidates offered serious policy discussions, and slammed both campaigns for using "rude discourse" better suited for the locker room or barnyard.

Paladino's win, Lazio said, had registered with him. His opening line was a reference to Paladino's mad-as-hell mantra: "My name is Rick Lazio; I'm mad as heck."

"I get the primal scream thing," he said of the voter antipathy that elevated his opponent. But "anger by itself is not a platform."

So, it is possible this will be another battle in the Repuiblican civil war and Lazio will pull a Murkowski and spilt the vote, butb this needs to be a wake up call for Cuomo to start turning up the volume a bit.

Cuomo has said he wants to stay above the fray, but Wednesday's result could prompt a change in tactics for a campaign that's been built around how the new executive will govern in January -- as if his election in November is merely an afterthought.

Lets go Andrew, Mass. is just to the East, don't pull a Coakley on us and get beat.
I apparently hadn't even finished writing this diary when new results by Siena, quoted in this diary by Davidsfr gives a much different result

Originally posted to fat old man on Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 06:55 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Yet, this Sienna poll says otherwise: (7+ / 0-)

    A new Siena poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) leading Carl Paladino (R) in the race for governor by 33 points, 57% to 24%, and Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D) leading Joe DioGuardi (R) in the U.S. Senate race by 24 points, 57% to 31% -- very different from the latest Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls that show much closes [sic] races.

    Two things to keep in mind: The Siena poll tests registered voters, not likely voters. And in the race for governor, the poll includes Rick Lazio as the Conservative Party candidate -- he gets 8% of the vote -- even though he's not yet announced if he'll stay on the ballot.

    "We don't differentiate between 'them' and 'us.' It's just 'us.'" --- President Barack Obama

    by marabout40 on Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 07:05:10 AM PDT

  •  Lets not be silly (4+ / 0-)

    Cuomo isn't going to lose to this joker. This poll didn't just capture a bounce. It's an obvious outlier.

    •  You're most likely right (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raboof, lineatus

      But after Coakley, I take nothing for granted.

      •  Paladino's fans have passion (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fat old man

        A couple of weeks before the primary, I took a drive through some of the reddest, most rural parts of upstate New York (Yates and Schuyler counties, to be specific.)

        There aren't a lot of voters there...but every last damn one had the roadside dotted with ugly orange Paladino signs.

        The Martha Coakley analogy isn't completely apt - no son of Mario would or could ever run so utterly inept a campaign as she did. But it's not entirely off the mark, either. This is no time for complacency. Even if Paladino isn't really 6 points behind Cuomo, it's time for Cuomo to start running as though that's the case.

        There's more than just the governor's race at stake here, after all. Big turnout upstate for Paladino has the potential to swing some assembly and state Senate seats in Albany, which fucks us over at redistricting time next year.

        It could also pull a few upstate congressional seats over the line to red, and we cannot afford to lose any of them this year (even ones held by lousy Dems like Mike Arcuri.)

        You don't get to say, "I support the First Amendment, but..." (h/t Chris Hayes)

        by ipsos on Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 09:02:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Quinnipiac left Lazio off the poll ... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lineatus, tapu dali, Deep Texan

    ... but they don't get to keep Lazio off the ballot. Polls that include Lazio, such as the Sienna poll, show Cuomo with a larger lead.

  •  that poll is bunk (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dougymi, tapu dali, Deep Texan

    no way that his approval rating is so high and paladino's is so low and there is only a 6 point spread.

    •  In order to get media coverage (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Deep Texan

      ya gotta fit the narrative. If this poll had shown the same results as Sienna, no one would have heard about it nationally. This way the pollster gets its name in the news and 'baggers buy newspapers. Everybody wins!

      Except the electorate.

      A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

      by dougymi on Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 07:50:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  100% Cuomo's fault. (0+ / 0-)

    If a beastiality-promoting, rabid racist righ-winger can get within single digits of Cuomo in New York, he is clearly doing EVERYTHING wrong.

    He's been stockpiling money for over a year now. I would say NOW is the time to spend it.

    Most NYers are not watching Keith and Rachel every night (and they certainly aren't watching Anderson Cooper, as the ratings would indicate) so it's not enough to assume that folks will somehow find out abotu Palladino.

    I'm ready to see some fight out of Cuomo. I'm sure he will ultimately succeed but the win will be the result of letting the light shine on what a truly despicable piece of shit Palladino is.

    "We will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist" --- President Barack Obama, 1-20-2009.

    by tier1express on Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 07:42:53 AM PDT

  •  um........................ (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Deep Texan

    Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino 57% to 24% in new Siena poll

    A new Siena College poll released Thursday shows Andrew Cuomo with a commanding lead in the governor's race over maverick GOP opponent Carl Paladino a day after a separate poll claimed the race had narrowed dramatically.

    My guess is that BOTH polls are outliers, and that Cuomo is around 15-20 points ahead.

    Emo's Prayer - "Lord, please break the laws of the universe for my convenience" - Emo Philips

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 07:52:40 AM PDT

  •  also........................ (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Deep Texan

    Quinnipiac didn't include Lazio, the spoiler.

    Emo's Prayer - "Lord, please break the laws of the universe for my convenience" - Emo Philips

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 07:58:06 AM PDT

  •  This poll is PURE BULLSHIT! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Cuomo will annihilate Paladino. Especially here in NYC. Only place that moron will probably win is with the sick racists from upstate. Otherwise he's toast. Thank GOD for NYC.  

    •  Hey now... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fat old man

      There are plenty of good progressives upstate, too, even in the reddest counties. Notice how nice and blue we've made the upstate Congressional map? Not all of those gains will be lost this fall...even if we lose my home district, the 29th (sigh), it's looking very good for holding the North Country (NY-23), Arcuri's district (NY-24) in central NY, Maffei (NY-25) around Syracuse, and hopefully some of the Albany/Hudson Valley districts, too.

      Yes, there are lots of Paladino fans up here - c'mon up to see the lovely Finger Lakes foliage in a week or two and you'll see as much orange on the "CARL" signs dotting every roadside as you'll see on the trees. But it's going to take more than just dismissing all of upstate as "sick racists" to make sure Cuomo wins. It's going to take some serious downstate turnout and an overall shaking-off of the apathy that seems to have consumed the top level of Democratic leadership statewide.

      You don't get to say, "I support the First Amendment, but..." (h/t Chris Hayes)

      by ipsos on Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 08:58:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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