It's pretty probable that the Democrats will lose seats in the house and Senate; but let's assume that things go OK and they don't lose control of either chamber.
What does Obama do next? I consider myself a politically aware person, and the only answers I have to that question are my own wild-ass guesses. That is a problem.
Obama has shown that he can make good speeches, and wrangle enough Republican and Blue Dog votes in the current congress to pass halfway-decent legislation a good fraction of the time. But on their own, those skills are meaningless if Republicans pick up seats, especially in the Senate. So Obama, please tell us, what's it gonna be?
There are a few options:
- He can continue to aim for bipartisanship and conciliation. Personally, I think it would be a big failure, but it's certainly an option.
- He can try for something bigger, but allow the filibuster to thwart him time after time, and try to draw that into a contrast.
- He can support filibuster reform - either openly, or behind closed doors. One way or another, I don't see reform passing without at least his tacit support, and much better with him wrangling or overtly campaigning for it. If this passes, losing 4 seats in the Senate is effectively gaining 5 or 6, especially since one of the 4 will be Lincoln who was never really on our team anyway.
- He can use his executive power, and write Congress off for the next 2 years.
- Option 2 for a year, and then option 3. (Again, I don't see why he'd do this, but it is an option.)
I really don't see other options. I'm terrified of option 1, I think it's a horrible idea; but even then, I'd rather he made this clear somehow. If he just says: "Elections have consequences, but it's not our job to back down if we don't win, and we don't plan to" - or, alternately, and depressingly, "We'll be listening carefully to the message the voters send this election," that would be something. And even if it's the latter, it's still important to keep the Tea-hadists from taking over. But it's really hard to beat a plan, even a crazy plan, with no plan at all.