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For the 15th consecutive day, the Senate Snapshot shows a Democratic majority of 52 seats as the most likely outcome, and Republican chances of taking over the chamber hovering around 1%.

Senate competitive campaigns chart


Senate seat outcome chart


Stability has been the hallmark of the Senate Snapshot in 2010. Democrats first dropped to 52 seats way back on February 19th. Since that time, there have been only very brief periods when the snapshot with all polls included wavered from a projection of 52 seats for Democrats.

In fact, only three states--Delaware, Nevada and Wisconsin--have seen a change of more than 15 points in the “current Dem win %” column since late February. Tea party candidates caused the first two.

Bottom line is that there has been remarkably little change in the Senate picture for over seven months now. Not sure what lesson that should teach us, but it is worth noting.

Notes
--Polling is not a conspiracy designed to manipulate your emotions.

--Polling averages don’t suck. They are quite accurate.

Actual Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.

--Only campaigns within 14% are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.

--Lisa Murkowski’s odds of victory are included in the overall GOP total. Charlie Crist’s odds are split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.

--With few exceptions, all polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.

--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:46 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Hopefully, the Dem Senate can block the GOP House (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hey BB

    Making anything that comes out of the House dead on arrival as soon as it passes.

    •  doesnt matter (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      flhiii88

      obama can block it all.

      On DailyKos nothing is significant unless Obama doesn't do it.

      by glutz78 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:49:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What makes you think there will be a GOP House? (7+ / 0-)

      As far as I can tell the GOP will have to win 45 seats and not lose any more than teh few they're very likely to lose.

      IMHO I don't think they can pull it off.  28 or so seats will be more likely, but 45?  

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:50:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Some people are talking 80 seats (0+ / 0-)

        This is what you get when the White House doesnt care about winning the House.  

        •  80 seats? Name them (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, Superribbie, lookit, tcrguy, flhiii88

          I bet those blowhards can't.

          It's called PFA - Plucked From Ass.  Also known as Karl Rove's Math.

          Ain't gonna happen.

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:52:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Look at this one guy's predictions (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Losty

            http://mark28.blogspot.com/

            He's talking a net of 112 seats.  That would put Republicans just one seat short of overriding an Obama veto.  If we lost that many seats, Democratic party would no longer exist.

            •  This guy is a random right-wing blogger (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, Superribbie

              a highly obscure one.

              De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

              by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:01:23 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  BWAHAHA! (4+ / 0-)

              112 seats?! That's the first time I've ever seen a number like that.  Yes, in the teabagger's mind, O'Donnell was also a logical choice over Mike Castle.

              Not to mention that there's no mathematical possibility of having a veto-proof majority in the senate so what's the point of a veto override if it can't get done in the senate too?

              The margin in the house will be close, no matter who's in the majority so it will be hard to get anything Democratic through anyway given the blue dogs who would love to jump ship more often than not.

              Proud to share my name with Howard Dean

              by DeanNC on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:09:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  please (0+ / 0-)

              On DailyKos nothing is significant unless Obama doesn't do it.

              by glutz78 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:17:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  This guy Mark is deluded if he thinks (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew

              Steve Israel, Walt Minnick, and Dan Lapinski are gonna lose. Those were the FLASHING signs of a teatard prediction.

            •  CA-39? Seriously? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, Geotpf

              That's a D+12 district that was drawn for a Hispanic Democrat.  The district itself is 61% Hispanic.

              Other particularly suspect calls on there include MA-06 (Tierney), MN-08 (Oberstar), OR-04 (DeFazio), and RI-02 (Langevin).  And while there's a number of seats on that list that I don't feel 100% confident that we'll keep, losing all of them is so unlikely that I'm not going to lose sleep worrying about the possibility.  The thought of Speaker Boehner and his flock of conservative committee chairs is frightening enough.

              •  HE THINKS (FUCKING) KUCINICH WILL LOSE (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Goobergunch, Geotpf
                •  NO — seriously? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  askew, Geotpf

                  He is completely and totally full of it then. No one has ever come closer than 15 points to Kucinich since he won his seat — and that was the strongest candidate the local GOP ever threw at him, Jim Trakas in 2008. He's up against a teabagging nobody this time. Most of the Democrats in his district would have to fail to vote and that isn't going to happen. The biggest Democratic turnout in the red-hot county elections is probably going to be in Lakewood and Parma  — the very heart of his district. And they are not going to vote for an obscure, extremist Republican against Dennis.

                  Is this guy even remotely familiar with the district or with Kucinich's opponent? He probably thinks my congresswoman (Marcia Fudge, Oh-11) is going to lose to, in a district where no Republican ever gets more than 15 percent of the vote.

                  De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

                  by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:44:20 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  He also thinks Space and Wilson will lose (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    askew

                    our two Blue Dogs – and he is alone in that. I also think Sutton will pull out a win, despite the money a self-funding multi-milionaire is pouring into the race. It's a pretty Democratic district. It's possible Kilroy, Boccieri and Dreihaus could lose — Dreihaus was always our likeliest loss in Ohio. But recent polls have showed the race tied. He's literally predicting ohio will flip from a 10-8 Democratic delegation to a 15-3 Republican delegation leaving only Marcia Fudge, Marcy Kaptur and Tim Ryan. Gee, why didn't he just go all the way and predict they'd lose too?  He's pulling these predictions out of his ass.

                    De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

                    by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:49:23 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  LOL (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Geotpf

                  Totally missed that!

                  •  Kucinich losing (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Goobergunch, Geotpf, Scott M94

                    is the longest of long shots. People LOVE Kucinich over on the west side. Their only beef against him was that he was running for president and not paying attention to his district. Well, he's not now, and I just saw him two days ago, revving up an early-morning rally of Democratic activists. I think it's about the fifth time I've seen him out and about in the last few weeks. I saw him working the West Side Market with our candidate for county executive, taking him around and introducing him to all the ethnic vendors, who all know and love Dennis.

                    De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

                    by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:58:28 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  Wow, that guy is smoking some wacky tobacky (0+ / 0-)

              For instance, he has 5 seats in California going from Dem to Rep.  Considering the incumbent-protection gerrymandering of the districts here, that's highly unlikely.  For contrast, Nate Silver has exactly one California seat (CA-11) on his list, and he is giving only a 54% chance of this happening.  Plus, the wacky tobacky prop 19 might actually make California an exception to the turnout rule this election (that is, liberals might be more likely to vote than conservatives, opposite of nationwide trends).  I'm kind of hoping my district (CA-44) might actually flip to the Dems, which almost happened in 2008.

          •  I'd like to see a list myself (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, eastvan, James Allen

            I can't see more than 25 - 30 as a Republican best case scenario at present, and chances of that seem to be slowly fading.

            •  Typical mid term loss is 28 (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tmo, hester, askew

              I suspect we'll see something along those lines.  Anything short of 45 and the GOoPers will be powerless, although the Dems need a cushion to overcome the Bluedogs in their group, even though their ranks will be severely diminished next year.

              This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

              by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:12:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  First mid-term loss is lower (0+ / 0-)

                Its 13 losses for the first mid-term.  The thinking is that the party in power gets more sympathy in the first election because they just took over for another party that messed things up.  Sound familiar?

                •  I wish it was only 13 (0+ / 0-)

                  unfortunately many Dems are running scared.  Hell even Jim Himes in CT-04 is running republican lite ads.  As someone else said, when you giev teh voters a choice between a real republican and a fake one they will choose a real one every time.  I wish more would run like Alan Grayson, call your opponent out for the extremist fuckwad that he or she is and let the voters decide between the two different choices.

                  This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

                  by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:25:01 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  And when.... (0+ / 0-)

              can't see more than 25 - 30 as a Republican best case scenario at present, and chances of that seem to be slowly fading.

              it happens......

              After the build up, the tear down is going to be a delightful sight.

              it tastes like burning...

              by eastvan on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 08:56:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Sources?? Linkies??? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Geotpf

          A teeny smattering of proof that the WH "doesn't care"???

          It's only water. What could go wrong???

          by MrSandman on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:57:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  "Some people" are ignorant jackasses. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DisNoir36

          It is magnificent, but it is not war, it is madness. Pierre Bosquet on the charge of the Light Brigade

          by flhiii88 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:59:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Some people will talk about anything (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          flhiii88

          And the media loves epic, catastrophic narratives. "Some GOP pickups'" simply isn't dramatic enough. But unless Karl Rove has dropped acid, I doubt anyone actually thinks this.

          De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

          by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:00:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Some people are also talking (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Geotpf, anastasia p

          about seeing Elvis at Burger King.  Right now, per the consensus of Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, Larry Sabato, CQ and the New York Times, there are 14 D seats that are likely goners; 32 more that are "tossups"; 25 more that are "lean hold"; 21 more that are "likely hold"; and another 18 that most think safe but one or two of them put as "likely hold."  That is a total of 71 competitive seats (or 14 goners and 57 competitive seats) plus 39 longshots with some upset potential.

          On the other hand, there are 2 GOP seats that are goners, 2 more that are tossups, 3 more that lean hold, 9 that are likely hold, and another 2 mentioned by somebody.

          How you get a net of 80 out of that is beyond me.  Based on how similarly rated seats performed in 2006 and 2008, the GOP is currently looking at +32 to +33.

          I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

          by Superribbie on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:34:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  What a joke (0+ / 0-)

          80 seats?  Really?  If that happens, I'm leaving the country.  Some are saying we'll never see a GOP House after Bush's years.  That, I'm a little unsure about, but an 80 seat gain is just wishful thinking.

          "We cannot build our own future without helping others to build theirs." -President Bill Clinton

          by Scott M94 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 08:43:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  thank you for the reality check! (0+ / 0-)
      •  Many are making the GOP the favorites (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, Superribbie

        This morning I took a look at all of the House Polling since since September 12th that is listed at electoral-vote.com.  There have been 31 polls taken since the 12th.

        In 2008 the Democrats beat the GOP by 10.68%.In the 31 polls I looked at, the average shift in the margin was -10.88.  Sounds awful, doesn't it?

        It is, but what it also suggests is that the generic ballot isn't anywhere close to GOP +10. What really caught my eye was comparing the numbers against the Cook PVI.  On average, the 31 races are about 4 points better for the Democrats than where you would expect them to be in a 50-50 race.  This is the power of incumbency, and suggests that when you look at individual races Democrats are running ahead of where they should be given the generic ballot.

        Bottom line: the House is still tough, but may be more winnable that we think.

        Data is here:
        https://spreadsheets0.google.com/...

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:01:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        As far as I can tell the GOP will have to win 45 seats and not lose any more than teh few they're very likely to lose.

        It's not 39. Add in Kirks seat in Ill. Castles seat is now deep blue ( that's all lost in O'Donnel sideshow -- but the Dem there leads by rout numbers ), Louisiana 02 is gone as is Hawaii. Republican potential vote growth has peaked, leaving it all to Democrats to vote and independants to look on appalled and finally make their choice.

        There are other races out there where Dem inccumbants are holding their own and of course there is the situation where there is a split ballot thanks to the 'bagger factor - which has also put forth some questionable candidates.

        28 or so seats will be more likely, but 45?

        28? That's about my guess. 45 is pretty hard to get. So I don't see the House going Red.

        But what I do want see on 031110 is the look on the faces of so many bloviating pundits on the picture box that night.

        it tastes like burning...

        by eastvan on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:49:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  this just makes me giggle (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Losty, coffejoe

      the media will get a case of amnesia about this whole 60 votes thing as they parade Republican after Republican out to demand a straight 'up or down' vote for everything.

      and the Media will dutifully point out that there are all of these bills which passed the House which are backed up in the Senate, and ask 'why are the Dems playing politics withe the bills? why can the Dems not work with the Republican house?'

    •  Won't be a GOP house (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, flhiii88

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:59:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  De Facto Republican Senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hester

      Why pretend?  We know who the nominally Democratic senators are and we know how they have voted.

      A senate that is 52-48 Democratic is a de facto Republican senate.

      Compare how easily the Republicans rammed through legislation when they only had a bare majority with the apparent 60 vote requirement when Democrats are in the majority.

      Expect the Republicans to return to demonizing the filibuster and the emergence of a new coalition of Serious Senators who vow not to use it against anything Republicans want.

      •  The Senate apparently can't do anything (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abesilberstein

        no matter what the numbers are. I think we'll do better than 52 though. I think there'll be a couple of surprise pickups. But I have to say, it makes me absolutely blind with rage to see that we now have zero chance of picking up Ohio, which was a top pickup opportunity just a few months ago. Thank you SOOOOO frigging much, Lee "Martha Coakley" Fisher. It was so nice of you to smear your primary opponent with lies, lies you somehow conned the gullible Steve Singiser and Adam Bonin and Laura Clawson into spreading for you, and to fail to reach our to her supporters after the election and to virtually take the whole summer off from campaigning because of course you had it in the bag – you are Lee Fisher and the seat was owed to you. Did it never occur to you there was bridge-mending to be done, as well as hard work, starting the day after the primary? This one was so close for so long, and then Lee Fisher opted to alienate half the activists in the state and to barely campaign for long stretches. And unfortunately, he's running against a non-teabagger who is more likable than he is.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:09:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  We. Aren't. Losing. The House. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, progressivebadger

      Jeez, read the freaking article already! The Publicans can't win with these trend lines. They might snipe off a few House Dems here and there, but not enough to change the balance.

      Of course, if we don't FIGHT, we might be able to snatch an even bigger defeat from the jaws of victory.

      (slaps you across the face)

      Buck up now! This is no time to lose your nerve! FIGHT DAMMIT!!!

      The next OneCare Happy Hour will be 10/29/10 -- come in costume!
      The GOP wants to kill Grandma.

      by Pris from LA on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:48:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  i dont see how Kirk wins (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    progressivebadger

    you would think Obama could pull that one thru.

    Did Sarah Palin just get intensely booed on Dancing With the Stars. Sure seemed like it.  hilarious.

    On DailyKos nothing is significant unless Obama doesn't do it.

    by glutz78 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:49:06 PM PDT

    •  Seriously (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Angie in WA State, vets74

      Please, Chris, give me 6-1 odds on Giannoulias.  Pretty please with double cherries on top!

      I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

      by Superribbie on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:38:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Democrats -- EVERYWHERE -- delay teevee buys. (0+ / 0-)

        The Blumenthal ads for Connecticut got rolling starting THIS MORNING.

        The ads from McMahon have been flooding teevee for a month. Crappy stuff.

        Now a simple ad from the Dem can wash it all away.

        BTW: same for Harry Reid, Russ Feingold, Carnahan, and even for Sestak and Conway.

        The GOPers have screwed themselves by running too many ads, doing it too long, and making themselves unwelcome.

        Oddly, despite the numbers today, I smell wins in 4 of those 5 races. Carnahan has the toughest time of it finding a leverage point.

        Career criminals + Angry White Males + KKK wannabes + Personality Disorder delusionals + Pro-Life Christians =EQ= The GOPer Base

        by vets74 on Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 07:22:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Russ Feingold? Gone? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Angie in WA State, vets74

    Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it. --Mark Twain

    by SottoVoce on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:50:04 PM PDT

    •  nah (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Angie in WA State, Vicky, vets74

      why did obama and his team settle on WI, OH, PA and NV as the four locations of 08-style campaign rallies? if 52 seats is where expectations have been set for 7 months; the math to 60 gets complicated, esp given uncertainty about filibuster/rules reform in next congress.

      let's see how obama does tomorrow. then we'll know if a counter-wave is forming..

      •  from your lips......etc. (0+ / 0-)

        Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it. --Mark Twain

        by SottoVoce on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:14:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ohio is gone (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        vets74

        I think Obama (and Clinton) are trying to save the governor — and the people of Ohio, because we're doomed if Kasich becomes governor. But even hardcore Democrats who desperately want Strickland re-elected just don't give a shit about the Senate race. The thinking is that Rob Portman (R-DailyKos) will only be one out of 100, and even though we disagree with him on virtually everything, at least he's a nicer person than Lee Fisher.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:23:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  what the fuck has happened to you? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          vets74

          That is simply unacceptable.  Lee Fisher needs to win that race.  If you guys outside of my state lose your seats, I'm giving up on you guys and focusing just on my own state's stuff.

          "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau

          by James Allen on Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 12:35:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Time to send more money to Boxer. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74

    Can someone make a donation to Feingold? Here's a good Demo.

    •  I gave Russ a money bomb on saturday. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Angie in WA State, vets74

      "Sir, you are a very clever man, but not very wise. Everyone knows it's turtles, all the way down."

      by hester on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:48:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Russ is just starting his teevee ads. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Geotpf, Chrisfs

      There's plenty for him to use. I'm betting him to claw-back about 5% -- turn the voters to himself -- and take it.

      He could use help from Al Franken.

      Seriously.

      Turnout from younger voters.....

      Career criminals + Angry White Males + KKK wannabes + Personality Disorder delusionals + Pro-Life Christians =EQ= The GOPer Base

      by vets74 on Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 07:26:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's good to know (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        vets74

        Looks like he's taking a cue from Jerry Brown's playbook-don't bother airing ads early on, take the early hit in the polls, then win on election day.  I assume his opponent was blasting them for months, right?

        In any case, Feingold has never lost an election of any type (ever), so I don't expect him to do so now.

  •  I Long for the Day when OH was a 3% Chance.. (3+ / 0-)

    Like a month before the Primary, when Jen Brunner was still in the race..

    And when Arkansas was still a shot, like before Obama and The DSCC gave a truckload of $$ To Our Gal Blanche instead of Bill Halter..

    And

    And

    And

    •  Ohio was pretty much tied (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Goobergunch, vets74, Losty

      until the middle of the summer, with either Brunner or Fisher. Unfortunately. Lee Fisher decided that a primary victory was a cue to take a three or four month vacation from serious campaigning. And he also didn't think he needed to mend bridges with Jennifer's supporters after smearing his way to victory. He's simply avoiding most of them – and most of them aren't lifting a finger to help him.

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:11:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, and the DSCC (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisePiper, vets74

        also squandered resources tilting the Ohio primary.  And they seriously think I will replenish their money? Nope — I'll pick the candidates I want to support.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:12:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  When the choice is between a Real Republican.. (0+ / 0-)

        And a Fake Republican, they'll choose the Real Republican Every time..

        Strickland Down 5, and Fisher Dead Man Walking..

        Just Like I said immediately after the Primary.. Strickland has an Outside shot, but the Libertarian better catch fire for him to have ANY shot..

        And Lee better have Deaton get 10-20%, to only lose by 10.

        •  Strickland is rapidly closing the gap (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          vets74

          which may have been a late-summer anomaly, because he was leading before. We're looking at a 2-4 point spread now and Strickland has much better than an outsider shot.  He doesn't need the Lib to catch fire; he needs to get out the vote — and the Ohio Democratic Party has a huge operation on the ground.

          Fisher has alienated so much of the base, I don't see a path to victory for him — not even through Eric Deaton. He really blew it. No one told him he wasn't supposed to take a three-month break after the primary. I bit my tongue on this for so long, thinking maybe he'd get it together next week — or the next. But he's STILL close to invisible. At least he's finally sending out emails more than once a week.

          De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

          by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:27:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I was trying a bit of Humor on Deaton, 10-15 hig (0+ / 0-)

            Maybe 2-4, and won't be enough..

            Ran to his base, but funding issues

            •  Usually right-wing third party candidates (0+ / 0-)

              in Ohio get about two percent. Deaton might get an extra point because he's been endorsed by the Tea Parties and Glenn Beck 9/12 groups. I will also boldly predict that the Green candidate for governor will do far worse than the 2006 candidate who got about .8 percent — because the 2006 candidate was a smart, respected guy (he's the guy who gathered proof that the 2004 election was stolen in Ohio), and the current one is an obnoxious, abrasive idiot who launches endless ad hominem attacks on the state's progressive bloggers and is running on a fusillade of lies about Strickland.

              De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

              by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:52:55 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Haven't heard much from Dennis since Convention.. (0+ / 0-)

                And I am not sure I like Strickland completely (It HAS been a bad 4 years), but what kind of lies, On his positions, or worse?

                And I wish Fitrakis would have ran again.  Maybe for Senate.  Since even you agree Fisher is Dead Man Walking I may need help with that race.  Have to read up on Dan.  

                How's Justin polling? Other that your sig line haven't seen much on him.  Is he running paper or active?  I think last time it was Andy Van Stein, and he was almost all paper.

                •  Well, Strickland's problem (0+ / 0-)

                  is that LOTS of Democrats "aren't sure they like Strickland completely" because he has had to make hard choices they don't like as far as cutting funding to various programs — because revenue has dropped in this lousy economy and by law the budget has to be balanced. So library lovers are grumbling about their cut and arts lovers are grumbling about THEIRS and a whole lot of people are upset that Strickland didn't deliver on ALL his promises to transform our schools, never mind lack of funding and resistance from the overwhelmingly GOP Senate.

                  But here's this issue: Kasich is going to slash library funding 30-40 percent. He's probably going to eliminate the Ohio Arts Council. The only thing he'll do for schools is steal their funding to open more of the failing for-profit charters already infesting Ohio.

                  Spisak has been posting angry screeds claiming Strickland has done "nothing" about education or health care or the environment and that he is solely responsible for the job that have left — he's virtually channeling Republican talking points. Strickland has actually moved ahead on green energy faster than most states; we're about to get the first fresh-water wind farm in the country. Spisak seems to think he can wave a wand, shut all the coal-burning plants, and go to 100 percent green energy overnight. He's angry that Strickland hasn't done this. He has ignored questions about how he'd do this with a legislature that is likely to have both chambers be Republican majority.

                  Fitrakis is a good man, but no Green will ever get more than one percent of the vote for any race.

                  There is no polling in Oh-08. Boehner is so arrogantly convinced he will win I don't think he's made a single public appearance in the district in the entire campaign. And for Justin, with limited funding (although he's already raised ten times what Boehner's best funded past opponent did), polling isn't a good use of that money. Justin is a campaigning whirlwind; his is the first real opponent Boehner has had in 20 years in Congress. He is everywhere, every day. He is working his butt off.

                  De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

                  by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 08:56:33 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  P.S. re Justin (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Losty

                    Although the DCCC is ignoring the race, having written it off as hopeless, Justin has gotten support from the state party, as well as Hillary's legacy PAC and Democracy for America, both of whom have sent staff and resources into the district. Good for them! They both understand that you don't just let an arrogant, complacent fool like Boehner skate unchallenged.

                    De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

                    by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 08:57:56 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I never said Kasich was GOOD.. (0+ / 0-)

                    And Van Stein was a paper candidate, Good to see Boehner has a real one this time..

                    But, When you said Fisher was Dead Man Walking (Figuratively) it might allow someone to send a message this time.  

                    What do you think of the Dem SOS candidate?

  •  has been a spectacular week - lets keep up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky

    the pressure !!!

  •  Reid .08 up and 62% Win? What? (0+ / 0-)

    Looks like more of a push, doesn't it?

  •  52 isn't a functioning majority (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tmo, James Allen, tcrguy

    Hell, 60 wasn't.

    O snail, climb Mount Fuji, but slowly, slowly! - Issa

    by bumblebums on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:07:32 PM PDT

  •  On the ground here in (northern) Delaware... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Angie in WA State, askew, ipsos

    My PC repair customers, most of whom chose me from the phone book sometime in the last 6 years, are almost 100% voting for Chris Coons over Stupid Spice™. The local Dems -- and some Republicans -- seem quite motivated to get out and vote against C.O.D. (which doubles as her initials and her credit terms).
    This is not a scientific sampling, but here's an encounter from this afternoon:

    A nice lady -- new customer -- in a decent neighborhood near Wilmington. Just to find out what she was thinking, I finished a sentence with "but, y'know, in THIS economy..."
    She said, "Yes, things are pretty bad."
    I continued, "So, we're going to fix America by electing Tea Party members to the House and Senate... we're going to THROW THE BUMS OUT..."
    The look on her face was priceless. If you saw it, you would have thought she just caught a strong whiff of soiled diaper... on her dinner date for the evening.

    Of course, I laughed and told her my "Christine O'Donnell moves her lips when she reads" story, and followed that up with an awful joke about Caribou Barbie. She laughed really hard at both, obviously relieved that her computer repairman was not a teabagger... just as I was relieved to find out that she wasn't.

    "She's petite, extremely beautiful, and heavily armed." -1995 Michael Moore documentary Canadian Bacon

    by Tom Seaview on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:16:07 PM PDT

  •  asdf (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, ipsos

    I believe we are going to prevail in Illinois - and seem to have a decent shot now in Kentucky. I would not be surprised to see the final tally either 53 or 54.

    Not, of course, that is makes all that much difference, considering how the party let the GOP crap all over them with 59 seats.

    But as long as they retain control of the chamber. I;m happy.

    The Democratic Party. Never has so much been squandered so quickly for so little.

    by GayIthacan on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:17:38 PM PDT

    •  I'm still holding out for 60-61 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, anastasia p

      Although Fisher is stinking up the joint.  What should have been a Dem pickup is dropping like a lead balloon.  Same with Florida and Crist.  I think we're gonna see a surge in the next month that will propel 7-8 Dems into the lead and we may surprise in 1-2 places.

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:21:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Evan Bayh's retirement really hurt us (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        He would likely be leading by 8-10 points if he had run for reelection.  Obama and Reid should have gotten down on their knees to beg him to run for reelection.

        •  Addition by subtraction (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Angie in WA State

          He sucked as a Dem anyway.  He was nothing more than a FoxNews Lieberdem.  More concerned about bashing Dems than fighting for them.  Fuck him.  I'd rather have someone like Jack Conway in the Senate than Evan Bayh.

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:27:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think so. (0+ / 0-)

          He got out because he say the writing on the wall. It would be closer, but I think there was a 50-50 shot he'd lose and he couldn't lose an election and still be seen as a legit shot at President down the line.

          2008 was a vote in support of a changing of the guard - 2010 is a vote to guard the change.

          by Jonze on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:29:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yup. (0+ / 0-)

        No one told Fisher that you don't take three months off after winning a primary — and that if you made the primary as divisive as you did, you should make moves to mend fences when it's all over. He never did that. About the best I can say is that I talked two lifelong hardcore Democrats out of thinking they might vote for Portman — but I'd say at least half the ones I know are saying they won't vote in this race. This one left blood on the floor. I just hope he doesn't take the whole ticket down — grassroots activists are pretty pissed at him and even hardcore Fisher supporters have told me with disappointment that they think he's running a terrible campaign. I think there will be some surprise Senate pickups but it won't be in Ohio.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:31:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

        I want some of whatever you are smoking. :D :D

        The Democratic Party. Never has so much been squandered so quickly for so little.

        by GayIthacan on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:35:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not smoking anything. High on life. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Angie in WA State

          Unlike that idiot who said Dems will lose 112 House seats.  

          According to this list we're at 52 Dems senate seats.  I think we may take PA, KY, NH, WI, IL, CO and maybe MO.  That gives the Dems 59.  We don't know how things will shake up in Alaska or down in Florida.  Ohio is becoming a lost cause but I think AZ will be closer than anyone suspects.  Call me crazy but I think the Latino vote will hurt McCain.  I still think 59-61 isn't completely out of the realm of possibilities.

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:42:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No way should Ohio have been a lost cause (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            vets74

            The more I think about this, the angrier I'm getting. It was neck in neck until very recently. HOW could the DSCC and the ODP let Fisher think he could just do nothing for 3-4 months after the primary? I'll tell you this: If he had held unity gatherings with Jennifer's supporters within a couple of weeks of the primary, quietly apologized for some of what went on in the primary, and proceeded to work his butt off all summer, he would be winning. He's been a ghost.

            De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

            by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:55:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  He was a flawed candidate from the start (0+ / 0-)

              I knew he was going to crash and burn. Hopefully in 6 years we'll be able to run a better candidate.  At least Ohio has one good senator, a very good one at that.  What I would do to have Sherrod Brown as my Senator.  Instead I'm stuck with Lieberscum and Dodd who is selling us out to Wall Street.  Thankfully We'll have Blumenthal next year and in 2 years Lieberscum will be gone too.

              This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

              by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 08:06:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well, Lee didn't HAVE to crash and burn, (0+ / 0-)

                but you are probably right that it was built into his DNA. As many pointed out during the primary, he found ways to lose when he drastically outspent his opponents in the governor's race and when he lost reelection to attorney general. I'm still in shock that he barely campaigned for 3-4 months after the primary. I kept hearing, "He has to raise money, he has to raise money," but you don't drop all contact with activists and voters to raise money especially these days when you can make your fundraising calls in the car on the way to events.
                Jennifer would be neck in neck with Portman right now. And despite the false narrative about her inability to raise money that was staged by behind-the-scenes manipulation, she would probably win.

                De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

                by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 08:17:01 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Off kissing elephants ??? (0+ / 0-)

              Career criminals + Angry White Males + KKK wannabes + Personality Disorder delusionals + Pro-Life Christians =EQ= The GOPer Base

              by vets74 on Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 07:29:20 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

            I doubt the DEMS will lose anywhere near that many House seats. In fact, I think they may even squeak by and hang onto the House.

            But there are going to major losses in both chambers - though the Senate will remain DEMOCRATIC (for all the good that has done this past 2 years, in general)

            And the GOP seems to have peaked early (in late august) - and now that more people are paying attention, the numbers seem to be trending DEM.

            But we are gong to lose Senate seats - and there is a better than 60% chance they will lose control of the HOR.

            The Democratic Party. Never has so much been squandered so quickly for so little.

            by GayIthacan on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 09:52:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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