Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 9/25-9/26. Likely Voters. MoE 2.7%
Susana Martinez (R) 50
Diane Denish (D) 42
This one is all over the place in the polls recently. Back at the end of August, the Albuquerue Journal found a 45-39 lead for Martinez, Doña Ana County District Attorney. Last week, dueling internal polls had Martinez up 10, while Denish's showed her down by just five. And a DGA poll released Monday by Third Eye Strategies has the two tied at 46, with 7 percent undecided.
Denish seems to be being dragged down by the administration she's served as lieutenant governor. The most unpopular Democratic politician in the state is Gov. Bill Richardson, whose approval rating has cratered to 27 percent. What really hurts her is the loss of 20 percent of Dems. She cedes three percent of women, and leads with Hispanics by just 4 points. The only demographic she has solid lead with are young voters, where she nets 53 percent, but unfortunately that's the group that will be least likely to vote.
One new wrinkle could help Denish down the home stretch if the race is extremely tight. A new candidate was cleared by the secretary of state to run as a write-in candidate. Kenneth A. Gomez is running as a tea party candidate, and might, just might, be able to pull some Republicans. But he'd be unlikely to make the difference if Denish can't start to solidify Dems and make significant gains.
Any way you slice it, Denish has a major fight, that, like the Congressional races in New Mexico, is going to require a very good GOTV effort to get every Dem vote out.