From the 538 blog:
That shows what the current Massachusetts polls have as Obama's approval rating among likely voters.
But Nate's analysis is that Obama's approval rating in the state is likely to be closer to +24 points.
Pleas to GOTV below the fold.
The conclusion of the data is that the poll models of likely voters conclude that the likely voter pool supports Obama about 20% less than the pool of all Massachusetts voters.
In other words - if the election reflects the opinions of all Massachusetts voters, Coakley crushes and destroys Brown, sticks a curling iron up his ass, and plugs it into a 220 outlet. But if the election reflects the "likely voter" models, then Brown wins.
And HC reform is probably lost, or at least hurt.
And cap and trade is probably lost.
And any new judge appointed has to meet the GOP litmus tests or face filibuster.
Get out the vote. Please. Just do it.
Thank you.