A few days ago, I had commented that the loss of Coakley - which I viewed as likely - wasn't the worst thing that could happen. And that it might refocus the party on coming up with a cohesive actionable platform to begin to get legislative victories. Like it or not, a nice big (W) in the column helps all the way around, with voters, with donors, and with those in office who at least feel forward progress. But as I say that, I also see the big drive "Reconciliation is the Answer" and I'm wondering: have progressives failed basic math?
Right now, there is a monumental drive to encourage reconciliation as a means to get all of the progressive agenda back into the health care legislation as a means to push something forward and get a W.
As positive as that may seem, it is more like whistling in the dark. Not all democrats are progressive, and at this point, the votes in the house are as fluid as water. Many oppose the Senate agreement because they want a stricter abortion clause (See: Stupak and many in conservative districts) some oppose because of single payer issues.. etc.
But what it all boils down to is: the VOTES are not there. By my quick count, as of this morning, Democrats can count on less then 170 votes in the house. Taking out those who will oppose like Stupak, etc.
And while it's great and joyous to say: "We'll go down in a blaze of glory!" going down fighting from a position of reconciliation with a bill that can't get off the floor is committing political suicide. Especially if you're willing to go down for a bill you just don't feel that strongly about... So, I keep seeing commentary like:
http://www.democraticunderground.com...
But once Pelosi keeps her promise to put the "fix" before the House everything else falls into place. (Assuming we have 50 actual Dems in the Senate, which seems to be the case.)
Here is how it would go down:
1) House passes Senate bill. (Senate cannot act on the bill again.) President signs it.
Which is nice, if you assume all the (D) in the house are going to vote for the senate bill. But they won't. The votes are not there.
Having just went through a major snowstorm, I know the gut instinct to just gun the gas to get out of being stuck in the snow. Sometimes you rock back and forth, reverse to forward just to build up some traction.
But eventually, unless your too stubborn and you're willing to gun it until your car jumps up and hits a tree, you get out and shovel and clear the path.
Now is the time for legislative victories. HCR will not pass at all as it is, and anyone who says "we can do this or that" is not looking at the realities of who is out there voting in the house or how they now look at their fall election.
So the pressure will be on to get real, significant legislative "Wins" on the board.
And I'm sorry for everyone sold on the Baucus plan (which damn near everyone has to acknowledge is a pinch-your-nose and sign anyway deal), but the time to go forward with a compromise Frankenstein is finished.
Announce publicly that's it's scrapped/dead, and that it will be revisited immediately after meetings. Lock the doors. Get some wins on issues that polls can sell to their home crowds.
Then, if the democrats believe in Health Care Reform, screw the "60 vote super majority" requirement. Bring out a plan, maybe a single party plan. Put it in front of the people: single payer, universal health care. Take the summer and put up a referendum on the real deal when the stench of failure doesn't drip over this mess and you can say: this is what we believe in, and let the chips fall where they may.
Let Republicans be seen as obstructionists on something that you believe in. Let Democrats advocate something they actually believe in. Be agressive. Fight for the issue.
The Coakley race is a symptom: if you aren't willing to be seen as a bold fighter for something, who believes in OR AGAINST something strongly enough that it's worth the fight, then how can you inspire anyone?
I had posted last night, and maybe with a bit too much jack & coke that the greatest problem being faced by the party is that they got in with a super majority and basically became wussies. (I have cleaned up my language today, sorry to all those offended last night).
Be pragmatists. Get wins where we can get wins. Give those who need positives something to go home with and help their re-election. But plan to be bold, to actually have a message and stick to it. Plan to be brave, to be willing to take a fight to the floor and paint Republicans as obstructionists. Plan to be the elected official we believed you to be when you ran as a candidate.
Most importantly: Plan to go home at night and not have misgivings about your belief in your efforts.
Democrats have been so afraid to go to the floor and fight the good fight that they are backing a bill most of them don't even really believe in. Those who vote for you can understand losing a good fight. What we are sick of is not even trying.
Table HCR. Get some victories. Stop standing in a a bill that is basically dead that you can't fight for from a standpoint of principle. Come back with something that from principle, honor, belief and integrity you can stand behind and say: This is what We Believe In. And fight the good fight.
And if you're not willing to fight the good fight, then let us know that too.. we've got time to find people who will.