Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/18-20. Likely voters. MoE 4% (8/31-9/2 results)
Harry Reid (D) 41 (40)
Danny Tarkanian (R) 52 (45)
Reid (D) 42 (41)
Sue Lowden (R) 51 (44)
Yeah, incumbents usually don't come back from numbers like that in the best of times. In this political environment? Brutal. Reid's favorability rating of 34 percent, compared to 55 percent unfavorable, doesn't give him much room for improvement. Among independents, that number is 26-61. Definitely brutal.
This isn't the first poll showing Reid in trouble, there are plenty of those floating around. So we decided to look for a Democrat that could hold the seat for us.
Oscar Goodman (D) 44
Tarkanian (R) 41
Goodman (D) 44
Tarkanian (R) 40
Shelley Berkley (D) 40
Tarkanian (R) 46
Berkley (D) 40
Lowden (R) 45
Ross Miller (D) 36
Tarkanian (R) 44
Miller (D) 37
Lowden (R) 43
Miller is the Nevada Secretary of State. With name ID of only 38 percent, he's unknown, but has potential upside. Berkley is a congresswoman, and tainted with DC. That association is toxic.
Then there's Oscar Goodman, the mayor of Las Vegas who recently left the Democratic Party to run for governor as an independent. The flamboyant politician certainly carries none of the stench of DC's failed political culture on him, making him the most electable Democrat in the state. And he's not even a Democrat anymore.
Incidentally, we're now polling the favorabilities of the two political parties:
Democratic Party
Favorable: 39
Unfavorable: 52
Among independents: 34/57
Republican Party
Favorable: 36
Unfavorable: 57
Among independents: 30/61
Both parties are looking rough right now, suggesting that whatever anti-Reid sentiment there is, it's not a pro-Republican one. It's an anti-establishment one.