Time to get the weekend started off properly, a weekend that will wrap up my 37th year on the planet. A dash of polling and a healthy dollop of campaign news goes into this little recipe we call the Polling and Political Wrap for Friday night...
CT-Gov: Dems Primed For A Pickup on Gubernatorial Side
With the retirement of longtime Republican Governor Jodi Rell, the Dems had a prime opportunity to pick up a governorship in a reliably blue state. And the new numbers out today from PPP confirm just that. Democratic Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz has an enormous lead over either of the leading GOP contenders. She leads former Ambassador Tom Foley by 22 points (48-26) and state Lt. Governor Michael Fedele by 25 points (50-25). If there is one thing to mollify the GOP, she does have a fairly sizeable name recognition edge over both of them (though she is far from universally known herself). Other leading Democrats (Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont) had solid leads of their own in the race. Daily Kos, along with Research 2000, will be polling this race as well in the coming week.
KY-Sen: Rasmussen Sees A Republican Hold In Bluegrass State
In results that might be surprising for their margin, if not their outcome, Rasmussen polls the state of Kentucky and concludes that either the establishment GOP candidate (Sec. of State Trey Grayson) or the wildcard GOP pick (physician Rand Paul) would have pretty solid leads over the leading Democratic candidates, state Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo or state Attorney General Jack Conway. In an odd twist, neither Republican could be said to be stronger against their Democratic counterparts. Rand Paul does much better against Mongiardo (49-35) than does Grayson (who only leads by 44-37). But Grayson, with a ten point lead over Conway (45-35), does better against the AG than does Paul, who holds an eight-point lead (46-38).
IN OTHER NEWS...
- MA-Sen: With less than two weeks to go until their special election, there are certainly mixed signals emanating from the Bay State regarding the battle between Democrat
Janet Martha Coakley (update: Oy. Someone I worked with and coached a few years back, same last name) and Republican Scott Brown. Coakley's team is highlighting their impressive cash haul in the wake of the endorsement of the Kennedy family (she raised $100,000 in a single day). Meanwhile, there is a pretty dark cloud on the horizon, courtesy of the pollsters at PPP. They are teasing their poll results, which should come out over the weekend. To say that their write-up lacked optimism for the Democratic team would be quite the understatement.
- NY-Sen: You really have to wonder if this is going to concern the campaign staff of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, or make them really, really happy. It looks like Tennessee transplant Harold Ford Jr is staffing up for a potential Senate bid. In something that is sure to play well with the Democratic base, it appears that two of his first three major hires came from the campaign squad of NYC's Republican Mayor, Michael Bloomberg.
- CA-Sen/CA-Gov: It's been rumored since shortly after the dawn of the Earth, but whispers are starting to circulate yet again that Tom Campbell, the former Congressman and "moderate" Republican, might be leaping from the gubernatorial race over to the Senate race. He is denying it, and it still strikes me as implausible. If his "moderate" past is a deal-breaker in the gubernatorial race with Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner, why would he expect to have better prospects against hard-right candidate Chuck DeVore?
- UT-Gov: In a sign that Democrats are still having their fair share of recruiting successes, even in nominally hostile territory, they just got one of their top-tier targets to commit to a run for Governor in the special election this Fall. Peter Corroon, who is the Democratic mayor of populous Salt Lake County, has announced plans to run for Governor of Utah this Fall. Corroon, who scored quite the upset when he claimed the county post six years ago, is viewed as a moderate, particularly on fiscal issues. He is probably the best candidate the Dems could have hoped for in this spot, but he is nonetheless liable to be an underdog in a state dominated by the GOP.
- WA-Sen: It is mostly a field of dwarves (well, former Redskins football player Clint Didier cannot physically be described as a dwarf), but another "some dude" (hat tip to the dudes at SSP) has added his name to the roster of Republicans trying to defeat Senator Patty Murray. This "some dude" is named Chris Widener, and he is a motivational speaker. Clearly, he is banking on some campaign skills to carry him across the finish line.
- NY-23: If Doug Hoffman thinks his decision to make a comeback in 2010 means a clear field for the Conservative/Republican, he might need to think again. State Assemblyman Will Barclay is apparently eyeing the race, after having declined to run in the 2009 special election due to family issues.
- IN-09: In one of those stories that belongs in the "You Have Gotta Be Kidding Me!" files--would you believe, voters of Southern Indiana, Hill-Sodrel Part V? It looks like Mike Sodrel is back for round five with Baron Hill. Hill won in 2002, lost in 2004, and then won in 2006 and 2008. However, all but the 2008 race were competitive. Sodrel is going to have competition in the GOP primary. Hill has been the subject recently of rumors that he is thinking about a 2012 bid for Governor.