This one is not in step with the prevailing punditry. You are forewarned.
Saturday's release by Newsweek of its Sep. 28-29 poll found a +5-point edge (PDF source) for Democratic votes for Congress among registered voters and, in its "definite voter" screen, a heftier 8-point lead for Democratic votes for Congress.
| Rep/Lean Rep | Dem/Lean Dem | Undecided/Other | |
CURRENT TOTAL | 43 | 48 | 9 | =100 |
Definite voter | 42 | 50 | 8 | =100 |
Q. Regardless of how you might vote, which of the following outcomes would you MOST like for this year’s Congressional elections? Would you rather see... (ROTATE: the Democrats keep control of Congress OR the Republicans win enough seats to take over Congress)?
| |
| Democrats keep control | Republicans win seats to take over | Don't know | |
CURRENT TOTAL | 46 | 44 | 10 | =100 |
| |
"Simply put, in the NEWSWEEK Poll, voters said they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle pretty much every problem currently facing the country: Afghanistan (by 6 points), health care (by 12), immigration (by 2, though that figure is within the margin of error), Social Security (by 14), unemployment (by 12), financial reform (by 14), energy (by 19), and education (by 19). Voters even prefer Democrats to Republicans on federal spending (by 4 points), taxes (by 5), and the economy (by 10)—the GOP's core concerns. The only area where Republicans outpoll Democrats is the issue of terrorism, where they lead by a 6-point margin."
The Presidential approval rating doesn't look bad, it's in neutral.–
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? | |
| Approve | Disapprove | Don't know | |
CURRENT TOTAL | 48 | 46 | 6 | =100 |
As E.J. Dionne wrote, the media was hushed anytime during spring and summer when a poll has shown the Democrats with a 5 or 6-point lead, but they become vocal when polls swing to the Republicans – leading Dionne to ask if "the only polls that matter" are the ones that are reinforcing preconceptions.
Another thing we'd better not talk about is the deal that the Obama administration has botched the economy because, gee, when Obama got started in 2009 we were on such a roll. See below, these are monthly changes, in thousands (000) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Do you see the turnaround that began soon after Obama took office in 2009? If you do you'll keep it on the QT, right? (Shhh.)