The format change launched on the Wrap at the beginning of the week seems to have arrived just in time.
For the first time in the 2010 cycle, the Wrap eclipses the half-century mark. We finish the night with a total of 51 polls released today, and they run the gamut.
A huge RV/LV gap in CNN's series of polls means that the outcomes depend a little bit on your perspective on who is "a likely voter."
Penn Schoen Berland unveils their first wave of House polls, and they are pretty damned ugly for the Democrats.
Other polls, meanwhile, look a little bit better. Dem internals in a couple of statewide races bring some cause for hope, while Delaware is looking more and more like a win-win for the blue team.
All that (and more!) in the super-sized Wednesday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
- Colorado Senate (Harstad Research--D):
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 44%, Ken Buck (R) 41%, Others 3%
- Connecticut Senate (CNN/Time):
Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 41%
- Connecticut Senate (G.Q.R.--D):
Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 38%
- Delaware Senate (Univ of Delaware):
Chris Coons (D) 61%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 37%
- Delaware Senate (Fairleigh Dickinson Univ):
Chris Coons (D) 53%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 36%
- Missouri Senate (CNN/Time):
Roy Blunt (R) 53%, Robin Carnahan (D) 40%
- Nevada Senate (CNN/Time):
Sharron Angle (R) 42%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 40%, Scott Ashjian (Tea) 7%
- New York Senate "A" (PPP):
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 37%
- New York Senate "A" (CNN/Time):
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 57%, Jay Townsend (R) 41%
- New York Senate "B" (PPP):
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 50%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 40%
- New York Senate "B" (CNN/Time):
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 54%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 41%
- Ohio Senate (Quinnipiac):
Rob Portman (R) 55%, Lee Fisher (D) 36%
THE ANALYSIS: The CNN/Time polls out today revealed an enormous RV/LV gap in their Nevada and New York polling. Among registered voters, Harry Reid actually enjoys a double-digit lead over Angle (43-32). It looks like last week's "ooh...these races are close" boomlets in Connecticut and New York were unwarranted, as two more polls confirm double-digit Democratic leads in those northeastern states. And...finally...it is clear that the media in America have gone crazy. The two Senate candidates who arguably got the most ink this year: Alvin Greene (SC) and Christine O'Donnell (DE). As today's polls in Delaware make clear, neither candidate is a lock to make it to even 40% of the vote.
THE U.S. HOUSE
- Arizona-01 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Paul Gosar (R) 46%, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 39%
- Arizona-01 (NRCC Internal--R):
Paul Gosar (R) 45%, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 42%
- Arizona-05 (NRCC Internal--R):
David Schwiekert (R) 45%, Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) 44%
- Colorado-03 (NRCC Internal--R):
Rep. John Salazar (D) 45%, Scott Tipton (R) 45%
- Colorado-04 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Cory Gardner (R) 44%, Rep. Betsy Markey (D) 41%
- Connecticut-05 (Merriman River--R)
Sam Caligiuri (R) 50%, Rep. Chris Murphy (D) 44%
- Connecticut-05 (Gotham Research--D)
Rep. Chris Murphy (D) 50%, Sam Caligiuri (R) 37%
- Delaware-AL (Univ of Delaware):
John Carney (D) 60%, Glen Urquhart (R) 40%
- Illinois-11 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Adam Kinzinger (R) 49%, Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) 31%
- Illinois-14 (Tarrance Group--R):
Randy Hultgren (R) 44%, Rep. Bill Foster (D) 38%
- Illinois-17 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Rep. Phil Hare (D) 38%, Bobby Schilling (R) 37%
- Indiana-02 (EPIC-MRA):
Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) 48%, Jackie Walorski (R) 39%, Mike Vogel (L) 6%
- Maryland-01 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Andy Harris (R) 43%, Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) 40%
- Michigan-07 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Rep. Mark Schauer (D) 41%, Tim Walberg (R) 41%
- Michigan-07 (Myers Research--D):
Rep. Mark Schauer (D) 44%, Tim Walberg (R) 40%, Others 7%
- Nevada-03 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Joe Heck (R) 47%, Rep. Dina Titus (D) 44%
- New Jersey-06 (Monmouth Univ):
Rep. Frank Pallone (D) 53%, Anna Little (R) 41%
- New Mexico-02 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Steve Pearce (R) 46%, Rep. Harry Teague (D) 42%
- North Carolina-08 (SurveyUSA):
Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 46%, Harold Johnson (R) 45%
- Ohio-15 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Steve Stivers (R) 47%, Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 38%
- Ohio-16 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Jim Renacci (R) 42%, Rep. John Boccieri (D) 39%
- Oregon-05 (NRCC Internal--R):
Scott Bruun (R) 45%, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 44%
- Pennsylvania-03 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Mike Kelly (R) 49%, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 36%
- Virginia-02 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Scott Rigell (R) 42%, Rep. Glenn Nye (D) 36%
- Virginia-05 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Rob Hurt (R) 45%, Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 44%
THE ANALYSIS: The Penn Schoen Berland polls (for The Hill) have already been covered pretty extensively by Markos earlier today. Needless to say, the intensity gap is apparent within those numbers, and some closing of that gap could easily turn narrow disadvantages into narrow leads. The quartet of NRCC internals are a week old, but I happened upon them when searching for another piece of data. Michigan's Mark Schauer appears to be making up ground: not only is he the only one of the twelve Hill Democrats not trailing, but he released his own internal poll showing a nice-sized lead. Dems have modest leads in two races (IN-02 and NJ-06) that have seen barely any polling during this cycle. And, with the wildly disparate internal polls out of Connecticut (a 19-point spread!), all we can say is...someone's really, really wrong.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
- Connecticut Governor (PPP):
Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 40%
- Connecticut Governor (Merriman River Group--R):
Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 45%
- Connecticut Governor (CNN/Time):
Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 42%
- Florida Governor (Zogby):
Alex Sink (D) 41%, Rick Scott (R) 39%
- Nevada Governor (CNN/Time):
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 33%
- New Mexico Governor (G.Q.R.--D):
Susana Martinez (R) 49%, Diane Denish (D) 46%
- New York Governor (CNN/Time):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 41%
- Ohio Governor (Feldman Group--D):
Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 46%, John Kasich (R) 42%
- South Carolina Governor (Hamilton Campaigns--D):
Nikki Haley (R) 49%, Vincent Sheheen (D) 44%
- Texas Governor (Texas Lyceum):
Gov. Rick Perry (R) 48%, Bill White (D) 43%, Others 6%
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
With the sheer volume of polling today, it might be somewhat surprising that only four of those polls emanate from the House of Ras. Two of these polls serve to perpetuate rapidly developing memes: that Joe Manchin is in a ton of trouble in West Virginia, and that Richard Blumenthal is NOT in a ton of trouble in Connecticut.
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%
IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 46%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 38%
RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%, Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robataille (R) 22%
WV-Sen: John Raese (R) 50%, Joe Manchin (D) 44%