After three weeks with 52 seats being the most likely outcome of the 2010 Senate elections, backslide in the West Virginia has dropped Democrats to 51 seats (including Lieberman and Sanders). Damn.
Washington and California remain the firewall. As long as Democratic odds in those states remain high, odds of Republicans taking overall control will remain low.
Also, Ohio and Delaware have been removed from the Snapshot, since they just are not close enough anymore. From now on, campaigns must be closer than 12.0% in order to be included.
Senate Competitive Campaigns Chart
Seat Outcome Odds Chart
Times are tough for Democrats right now. However, an across the board improvement of just 4% would dramatically alter the Senate picture. Here is what the Snapshot would look like in the event of such a swing:
Additionally, a 4% swing would greatly improve Democratic chances of keeping the House, since we currently trail by 3.3% in the generic ballot, according to Pollster. Keep in mind, as I wrote last week, that Democrats may be able to lose the national popular vote by as much as 2.5% and still win the majority of seats.
With the Democratic voting base still tuning in, and some with hard, smart campaigning, a swing of 4% is absolutely doable. Let’s make it happen.
Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.
--Only campaigns closer than 12.0% are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.
--I am not projecting odds of victory in Alaska, due to the write-in campaign of Lisa Murkowski.
--With few exceptions, all polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.
--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.