After last night's deluge of data (for those that enjoy alliteration), today's polling load drops to a mere steady rain. Indeed, tonight's poll count stands at a "mere" 23 polls, less than half of the number that was tallied on Wednesday.
Among the highlights: either Dems are on the move in New Hampshire, or the pirate pollster is up to its old tricks again. If a new series of polls out of Connecticut are to be believed, that state might be a surprising House battleground. Also, the House of Ras has its most Ras-tastic day in weeks. No Democrat is left unspared, it would seem.
All that (and more!) in the Thursday edition of the Wrap...
- Florida Senate (Mason Dixon):
Marco Rubio (R) 42%, Charlie Crist (I) 27%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%
- Illinois Senate (Global Strategy Group):
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%, Others 6%
- New Hampshire Senate (American Research Group):
Kelly Ayotte (R) 47%, Paul Hodes (D) 42%, Others 4%
- Ohio Senate (Suffolk Univ):
Rob Portman (R) 47%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%
- Washington Senate (Fabrizio McLaughlin--R):
Dino Rossi (R) 48%, Sen. Patty Murray (D) 42%
ARG has a bit of a reputation for ping-pongy polling numbers, so it is hard to know whether their current margin (Ayotte +5) is closer to the truth that their margin just ten days ago (Ayotte +14). It is a bad sign in Ohio when a sigh of relief accompanies a poll showing the Democrat down by "just ten" points. Washington has to be considered a worry again, even though the three polls showing Murray's lead fading have come from Rasmussen, the Fox-Ras nexus, and a Rossi internal.
- Connecticut-01 (Merriman River Group):
Rep. John Larson (D) 52%, Ann Brickley (R) 45%
- Connecticut-04 (Merriman River Group):
Rep. Jim Himes (D) 49%, Dan Debicella (R) 47%
- Connecticut-05 (Gotham Research--D):
Rep. Chris Murphy (D) 48%, Sam Caligiuri (R) 34%
- New York-23 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Matt Doheny (R) 51%, Rep. Bill Owens (D) 37%
- Pennsylvania-07 (Monmouth Univ):
Pat Meehan (R) 49%, Bryan Lentz (D) 45%
- Washington-08 (Fairbank Maslin Maullin Metz--D):
Rep. David Reichert (R) 48%, Suzan DelBene (D) 44%
Chris Murphy responds to yesterday's not-pretty Merriman River Group poll by releasing a brand-new internal showing him up fourteen points (the internal in yesterday's Wrap was about a week old). Merriman is out with two new polls today showing Dems leading, but struggling in CT-01 and CT-04. Also, one correction--Merriman River Group is not a Republican firm, as was indicated in yesterday's Wrap. PA-07 is actually something of a bright side, believe it or not: GOP internals have claimed a huge lead in that district.
- Colorado Governor (PPP):
John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (I) 33%, Dan Maes (R) 13%
- Illinois Governor (Global Strategy Group--D):
Bill Brady (R) 36%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 35%, Others 12%
- New Hampshire Governor (American Research Group):
Gov. John Lynch (D) 51%, John Stephen (R) 41%, Others 1%
- New Mexico Governor (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Susana Martinez (R) 51%, Diane Denish (D) 42%
- New York Governor (Quinnipiac):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 37%
- Ohio Governor (Suffolk Univ):
John Kasich (R) 46%, Ted Strickland (D) 42%
- Wisconsin Governor (Marist/McClatchy):
Scott Walker (R) 51%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%
Quinnipiac is the big story here, coming back to something approaching reality. The pollster that had Carl Paladino breathing down the neck of Andrew Cuomo now has Paladino trailing by 18 points. Meanwhile, another new pollster confirms the tightening of the Ohio Governor's race. ARG's ping-ponging hits the Governor's race in the Granite State, as well. What once was a two-point race in the eyes of the "pirate pollster" is now double digits.
Republicans good. Democrats bad. Just another day at the House of Ras.
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 44%
GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R) 50%, Roy Barnes (D) 41%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 51%, Robin Carnahan (D) 43%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 50%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 46%
SD-AL: Kristi Noem (R) 47%, Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 44%
TX-Gov: Gov. Rick Perry (R) 53%, Bill White (D) 43%