Skip to main content

After last night's deluge of data (for those that enjoy alliteration), today's polling load drops to a mere steady rain. Indeed, tonight's poll count stands at a "mere" 23 polls, less than half of the number that was tallied on Wednesday.

Among the highlights: either Dems are on the move in New Hampshire, or the pirate pollster is up to its old tricks again. If a new series of polls out of Connecticut are to be believed, that state might be a surprising House battleground. Also, the House of Ras has its most Ras-tastic day in weeks. No Democrat is left unspared, it would seem.

All that (and more!) in the Thursday edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

THE ANALYSIS: ARG has a bit of a reputation for ping-pongy polling numbers, so it is hard to know whether their current margin (Ayotte +5) is closer to the truth that their margin just ten days ago (Ayotte +14). It is a bad sign in Ohio when a sigh of relief accompanies a poll showing the Democrat down by "just ten" points. Washington has to be considered a worry again, even though the three polls showing Murray's lead fading have come from Rasmussen, the Fox-Ras nexus, and a Rossi internal.

THE U.S. HOUSE

THE ANALYSIS: Chris Murphy responds to yesterday's not-pretty Merriman River Group poll by releasing a brand-new internal showing him up fourteen points (the internal in yesterday's Wrap was about a week old). Merriman is out with two new polls today showing Dems leading, but struggling in CT-01 and CT-04. Also, one correction--Merriman River Group is not a Republican firm, as was indicated in yesterday's Wrap. PA-07 is actually something of a bright side, believe it or not: GOP internals have claimed a huge lead in that district.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

THE ANALYSIS: Quinnipiac is the big story here, coming back to something approaching reality. The pollster that had Carl Paladino breathing down the neck of Andrew Cuomo now has Paladino trailing by 18 points. Meanwhile, another new pollster confirms the tightening of the Ohio Governor's race. ARG's ping-ponging hits the Governor's race in the Granite State, as well. What once was a two-point race in the eyes of the "pirate pollster" is now double digits.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

Republicans good. Democrats bad. Just another day at the House of Ras.

CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 44%
GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R) 50%, Roy Barnes (D) 41%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 51%, Robin Carnahan (D) 43%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 50%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 46%
SD-AL: Kristi Noem (R) 47%, Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 44%
TX-Gov: Gov. Rick Perry (R) 53%, Bill White (D) 43%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 07:48 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Ouch! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RonV, Jonze

    Both on NY-23 and on NM-Gov.  Especially the latter.

    exmearden: Grab every minute of joy you can. 8/30/09

    by Land of Enchantment on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 07:50:49 PM PDT

    •  NY-23 isn't nearly that bad... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      It's a toss-up.  

      Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

      by Jonze on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 07:52:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  NY-23 poll data is two weeks old. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Jonze

      It was done Sept. 22-23, prior to Hoffman dropping out. Plus it's a repub polling firm and the poll was released by the NRCC. It's worthless.

      "I was so easy to defeat, I was so easy to control, I didn't even know there was a war." -9.75, -8.41

      by RonV on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:00:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As worthless as the poll that shows (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RonV

        Rossi up in  Wa. WTF? I don't think so.
        Propaganda polls, propogated to drive the nebulous narrative that the GOP has it in the bag.

        Oh, they got in the bag all right. Just the wrong one....

        And some of these polls are the political equivilant of a burning bag of dog poo on someones doorstep.....

        Because it's all they got.

        it tastes like burning...

        by eastvan on Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 01:56:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Meek did well in the debate - does it help him? (0+ / 0-)
    •  He also had to squash the WSJ rumor... (0+ / 0-)

      that he was getting ready to drop out.

      Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

      by Jonze on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 07:54:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  its doesnt matter (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tuffie, PBCliberal, itskevin, HeyMikey, Jonze

      Meek is never going to get out of 3rd place. The reason people want him to drop out is because he's never even going to hit second place and our best chance is to get crist in.

      •  Three way races are complicated (0+ / 0-)

        I heard Meek impressed in the debate. Lets say if he gets a ~5% boost after the debate - he would have a chance to turn this around. If not, he should do what needs to be done to prevent a teabagger Senator.

    •  Its a sad situation... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HeyMikey, R Rhino from CT4, tari

      Meek has so many things going against him, he can probably never recover. Once Rubio got Crist to drop out of the GOP primary, everybody else in the race besides Rubio was running against each other, and they've ground each other up:

      Billionaire pseudo-Democrat Jeff Greene ran a dirty primary campaign that tarnished Meek with innuendo. Greene was handily defeated, but the stink remains.

      The only place Meek can now get votes is from Crist voters because Meek is everything Rubio is running against. Crist immediately staked out a centrist position by doing an about face on some conservative wedge issues (gay adoption and a divisive education issue to name two). So Meek and Crist have been battling for the centrist/left vote and not adequately engaging Rubio.

      The best thing to keep Rubio out of office would be for Meek to throw his support to Crist and hope to Christ Crist can overcome the increasing perception that he's an unprincipled opportunist.

      While there's far worse than Crist, such an outcome would definitely not be a win for progressive causes.

      If it were true, they couldn't say it on Fox News. -6.62 -5.90

      by PBCliberal on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:08:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  has been my position all along (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PBCliberal, HeyMikey

        but maybe I got it wrong. I saw some clips of the debate and was impressed by Meek. My apologies for being harsh on Meek. He is a good guy. Now he has not much time left to do the right thing.

        •  I went and saw Meek on the stump (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HeyMikey, tari

          I did not see the debate, however, but understand he did well. I wasn't impressed with his political abilities when I saw him speak, but I am impressed with his positions on issues.

          I have not made a decision yet, but will have to before election day because I will be out of town.

          This may be the toughest choice I've ever made. If it somehow it looks like Meek can win by my drop-dead date, I'll vote for Meek.

          If it looks like Crist can win, I'll vote for Crist. If it looks like neither of them can win, I'll vote for Meek.

          If it were true, they couldn't say it on Fox News. -6.62 -5.90

          by PBCliberal on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:18:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  lets make it rational - he needs to pick up after (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            PBCliberal, HeyMikey

            the debate. If he gets a ~5% swing after the debate, go Meek. If he stays flat, it is over. Go Crist.

            •  Meek & Crist need to cut a deal. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              PBCliberal, tari, flhiii88

              Not a secret, backroom deal. A public, announce-at-press-conference deal.

              Meek withdraws and endorses Crist. And in return Crist promises to vote for X and Y (Meek priorities, whatever they are).

              "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

              by HeyMikey on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:59:13 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  That can blow back to Crist (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Odysseus

                Though I'd be happy with it, because the only place Crist can go is to the left, I don't know how Crist would finesse that with the increasing number of voters who see him as unprincipled and willing to say anything to be re-elected

                One hell of a spot could be produced showing Crist throwing the right wing under the bus, and asking the left if we can trust him any more than the right could.

                If it were true, they couldn't say it on Fox News. -6.62 -5.90

                by PBCliberal on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 09:19:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  No deal (0+ / 0-)

                Crist doesn't need Meeks endorsement. If Meek dropped out, Crist would automatically jump 15%, and thus ahead of Rubio.

                •  Meek dropping out or cutting a deal with Crist (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ChicDemago

                  would suppress the African American vote in Florida and possibly make Rick Scott our Governor.

                  Veritas Omnia Vincit

                  by The Nephew on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 09:30:52 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Meek NOT dropping out would elect Scott. (0+ / 0-)

                    Unless Crist drops out.

                    Unless either Crist or Meek drops out, Rubio wins. Hey, Nephew, I realize that in 2000 you were like 8 years old and living in North Carolina, but the older Floridians oughta recall the election that year involving a guy named Nader.

                    "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

                    by HeyMikey on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 11:39:28 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Oh, wait a minute. Sorry. (0+ / 0-)

                      Confusing Senate and Gov races. My bad.

                      I wish Crist would drop out & endorse Meek. But as long as Crist leads Meek in the polls, that won't happen.

                      "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

                      by HeyMikey on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 11:41:12 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

  •  The fact that the National Dems... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Truth Shall Set Ye Free

    Are seemingly staying out of NH tells me their internal polling is closer to the +14 for Ayotte.

    Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

    by Jonze on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 07:53:09 PM PDT

  •  Dino Rossi is another Wall Street hack (5+ / 0-)

    who needs to be defeated. And besides, he wants to reward defense contracts to Airbus, a foreign company, at the expense of Boeing, an American company that employs thousands of workers in Washington State.

    Wake up Washington!

  •  Seriously.... (4+ / 0-)

    I know we have our problems with Harry Reid, but is that lunatic Angle really going to beat him?

    Does the heat in Nevada really make people that delirious?

    •  Reid is spending silly money... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Wary, tari, keetz4

      And it's still a toss-up, which has to be concerning him greatly.  Longtime Republican State Senator Bill Raggio endorsed Reid today, blasting Angle in the process, along with taking shots at libruls.

      Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

      by Jonze on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 07:56:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  "I'm a fair guy but this (0+ / 0-)

      fucking heat is making me absolutely crazy."

      -- Jack Nicholson as Col. Nathan Jessup, A Few Good Men

    •  There is an ENORMOUS gap.... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, askew, HeyMikey, tari, James Allen

      Between LVs and RVs here. The poll yesterday from CNN had Angle up two with LVs, but had Reid up 11 with RVs.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:03:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, it does strain credibility (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, HeyMikey, James Allen

        remember though in 2008 everyone except Suffolk and Zogby missed NV pretty bad. That is what I keep reminding everyone. NV was 4 points for Obama the weeeknd before the election according to everyone but Suffolk and Zogby. They had it at 9-11 points Obama. I know the electorate is different this year but there is reason to believe most of the polls are undercounting dem support, and that CNN discrepancy between RVs and LVs is very fishy.

      •  LV screens this year are squirrelly at best (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        (cf CNN poll above) and that's assuming the best possible faith on the part of the pollsters. With a not-good-faith pollster like Ras/FOX, an LV screen is just an irresistible temptation to and cover for malfeasance.  I can just see them sitting around a table with the raw Nevada results and saying, "well, what happens if ONLY republicans vote, huh?  Like, every democrat is sick that day, or their car breaks down, or they're thrown in jail, they just don't get out of bed? See, then Sharrron wins by a LOT!"

        "Well, yeah, and what happens if every democrat is thrown in jail and all the not-conservative republicans are ALSO thrown in jail?  See then she wins by EVEN MORE..."

        •  Of course this is what they do. (0+ / 0-)

          any public poll is used to create/control a story.  With one LV screen higher or lower it greatly effects the poll result.  

          Only polling that matters is internal polling done by the parties themselves. When internals are released, they choose which one to release - they probably have numbers using various screens and pick the one to fit the story they want to push.

          The best way to read the tea leaves now is follow the spending/funding by the national parties.  

          Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

          by Jonze on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:37:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Anyone who votes for Angle (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      keetz4

      should be required to undergo psychiatric treatment. The woman's a LOON.

      "Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" --Alexander Hamilton

      by kovie on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:05:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes. (0+ / 0-)

      Because we were busy laughing at Christine O'Donnell, just as they planned.

      British Petroleum: I think that means it's foreign oil.

      by Bensdad on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:07:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Some of these polls are bullshit (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Scarce
    And who the fuck is Fabrizio McLaughlin?

    "Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" --Alexander Hamilton

    by kovie on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:02:37 PM PDT

  •  Today's PA-07 diary by redrelic17 (2+ / 0-)

    poll diary shows the significance of the Monmouth poll.
    Since an internal poll this summer, Lentz, the D has gained 19 points, while the R Meehan has gained 2.
    Please stop by for a read, and consider throwing some love to Lentz. He is a progressive who has earned every point in that differential.

    Thanks.

    I am not bound to succeed, but I am bound to live by the light that I have. A Lincoln

    by quadmom on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:09:50 PM PDT

  •  Ilario Pantano (0+ / 0-)

    Docs detail murder case against GOP House hopeful

    In Iraq in 2004 Pantano shot two unarmed Iraqi prisoners, unloading up to 60 rounds, and then placed a sign next to their bodies with a Marine slogan, "No better friend, no worse enemy."

    Always speak your mind. If you are wrong, someone will correct you and then you will be wiser.

    by Krush on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:15:16 PM PDT

  •  Gawd it would be great to get Reichart out. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Corneliusmingus, DeadHead, keetz4

    Fucking rich republican eastside fucks.

    I'm gonna go eat a steak. And fuck my wife. And pray to GOD - hatemailapalooza, 052210

    by punditician on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:18:57 PM PDT

  •  Merriman River (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Scarce

    John Larson won by 45 points in '08. He's up by 7 now, according to Merriman River. That's BS.

    They say Chris Murphy is down, but his campaign says it's not even close - he's up by 14.

    They have Jim Himes ahead by 2. I'm guessing, then, that he's really ahead by well into the double digits.

    •  Merriman River (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      I got a call from them the other night polling me.  It was pretty obvious it was a push poll with questions like "Do you think Chris Murphy deserves another chance in DC or do you think it's time for a change?"  and all sorts of questions about right wing issues.

      So I did what any good lefty would do.  I picked Chris Murphy and teh liberal position on EVERY question and at the end indicated that I was a VERY conservative VERY, republican voter.

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 04:03:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Steve, holy batman, surely Dems will not give (0+ / 0-)
    ground in Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Minnesota and New Mexico without a fight. Is it lack of money, or lack of backbone?
  •  Crist needs to drop out. (0+ / 0-)

    He's practically handing this race to Rubio.  Crist can't win, and he's making problems for Meek.  

    Veritas Omnia Vincit

    by The Nephew on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:26:16 PM PDT

    •  Crist drops out and half his support... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PBCliberal

      goes to Rubio, putting Rubio at at least 55%.  If folks believe Rubio needs to be stopped at all costs then Meek would be the one that would need to drop out.  However it's to the point where Crist is so damaged, looking like a rank opportunist, I don't think he could win with Meek out either.  

      Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

      by Jonze on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:29:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You may be right. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jonze

        I'm still voting for Meek.  I'd rather vote for the right loser than voting for the wrong one.  

        Veritas Omnia Vincit

        by The Nephew on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:31:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd wait until election day if possible. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HeyMikey, DeadHead

          If it's a three way, vote for Meek because it won't matter.  If it's a two way vote for the non-Rubio.  

          If you vote early/absentee now and one or the other drops out you're essentially wasting your vote.

          Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

          by Jonze on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:39:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I plan on voting early (0+ / 0-)

            I know it's crazy, but it will be my first vote in a general election and I'm kind of excited about it.  I will vote for Meek unless he drops out before early voting starts.  

            Veritas Omnia Vincit

            by The Nephew on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:43:34 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I appreciate your excitement, but Jonze gave some (0+ / 0-)

              Good advice to you. It won't be as  exciting voting early and wishing you'd waited, should things go the way Jonze described, as it would be if you waited and your vote was put to the best use.

  •  Who pays for Obama jetting all over... (0+ / 0-)

    to stump and fundraise?  Air Force One can't be cheap - I wonder how long before the GOP attacks that.  

    Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

    by Jonze on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 08:31:42 PM PDT

  •  Meek please go away (0+ / 0-)

    you are not going to win no matter how likeable you are

  •  Ok what's with the new CBS poll.. (0+ / 0-)

    showing the R's increasing their lead in the generic poll from + 2 last month to + 8 as of October 7 ????

  •  MO-Sen: Ras makes yesterday's poll an outlier (0+ / 0-)

    I knew that there was no way in hell that Blunt was up thirteen?!? on Carnahan.

    •  51/43 is still a bad H2H (0+ / 0-)

      and unless the Robin media strategy changes from the last 45 days of nonstop negative ads, she's gonna lose decisively. She's not gaining ground and has to do something new. Right now, the best case is 52/48 H2H, but it'll be closer to 55/45 H2H.

      It takes 2 to tango with idiots who do the ads and the candidates who keep approving the strategy because they think DC types know better in these situations.

      Although, any amount of phoning should cause someone to question many calls does it take to get 500 completed responses for a major poll? Especially when it comes to people answering an unknown caller.

  •  Murray and Reid below 50% (0+ / 0-)

    Reid seems permanently below 48... Murray is below 50.

    With all the money spent, Yes Angles negatives are up - but Harry still polling below 50.

    Me thinks these two are both in huge, huge trouble.

    If these two fall... are we looking at 49 Dem seats?

    The liver is evil - It must be destroyed

    by somewhere in ohio on Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 04:42:49 AM PDT

  •  How can the financially challenged Deal (0+ / 0-)

    be leading Roy Barnes by 9 in GA?  The guy can't manage his own p0ersonal or business finances and is tottering on the verge of bankruptcy which he hopes to avoid until after the elction, but he wants to run a $20 BILLION state budget?  

    Obama would be perfect if he were a Cubs fan.

    by Georgia Liberal on Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 07:31:03 AM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site