538
Good news for Democrats: CT-Sen (7-13%) and DE-Sen (17-19%) are looking good and great, respectively. NY-Sen: 97% for Gillibrand, but no one ever really thought NY was in play. CA-Sen: Boxer solidifying a slim lead.
Unknown: No good recent polling in WA-Sen.
Mediocre: CO-Sen shows a slight lead for Buck, still.
Bad news: No non-Rasmussen polling in WV, but Raese is leading Manchin in the R polls by 6 points. Mostly Rasmussen polling in NV, and Angle has a slight lead.
Races within 5 percentage points per Nate's modeling:
CO-Sen: Buck +3 over Bennet (73.58 rating from Progressive Punch)
NV-Sen: Angle+2 over Reid (82.08 rating from PP)
WV-Sen: Raese+2 over Manchin (no rating)
IL-Sen: Kirk+1 over Giannoulias (no rating)
WA-Sen: Murray (84.91 rating from PP) +3 over Rossi
CA-Sen: Boxer (92.45 rating from PP) +5 over Fiorina
We can certainly use your help here in Colorado. Bennet not a fave of the professional left, or even the amateur left, but Buck is fully Tea Brained.
In terms of the calculation "How much better is the Democrat than the Republican", with all estimates of goodness pulled out of the air by yours truly, I see it thus.
Boxer (+10) versus Fiorina (-7): +17
Manchin (+6) versus Raese (-8): +14
Bennet (+3) versus Buck (-10): +13
Reid (+3) versus Angle (-10): +13
Giannoulias (+6) versus Kirk (-7): ? +13
Murray (+4) versus Rossi (-7): ? +11
That is, neither Bennet or Reid inspire - but they are matched against Tea Brained Republicans, who I judge to be worse than the usual set.
Manchin looks like a solid Democrat and Raese looks like a spoiled, entitled billionaire trying to buy the race from out of state.
Boxer is one of the best Democrats in the Senate and Fiorina is a full corporatist but not quite as egregiously full of entitlement as Raese.
Giannoulias looks to be a solid Democrat and Kirk is another typical Republican.
And Murray doesn't inspire, while Rossi just seems to be another typical Republican.
In some other races that have attracted considerable byte spillage here on the Great Orange Satan:
In KY-Sen, Nate's numbers give Rand Paul a seven point lead over Jack Conway. This one is important, because of course Paul is another Tea Brained Republican who earns a -10 on the ba scale.
In AK-Sen, Nate gives Miller a 12 point lead over Murkowski, who has a 4 point lead over McAdams. Oh I would love to elect McAdams, but time is slipping away.
In FL-Sen, Nate gives Rubio a 10 point lead over Crist, who has a 10 point lead over Meeks. Unless the debate results really move the numbers this one does not look good for team blue.
Update: In WI, Nate gives Johnson a 6 point lead over Feingold. Another lousy Republican against a great Democrat.
Update: In PA, Nate gives Toomey a 7 point lead over Sestak. A Club for Growth Republican against a good Democrat.
There are those six tight races, though, where a donation might help. Or a phone call. Or 10.
Did I mention that it is time to Get Out The Vote? It is time to GOTV. No excuses. GOTV. Have you called someone yet? GOTV.