If you are enjoying this October weekend, you might want to go ahead and skip down to the gubernatorial set of polls in this particular Wrap. Because, elsewhere, rosy GOP internal polls abound, the public polls aren't much better, and even two of the Democratic internal polls has the GOP challenger leading. It is 35 polls, with the smiles coming few and far between.
It is a pretty heaping helping of suck on this weekend edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
THE ANALYSIS: It is becoming clear that the small spate of post-primary polls provided an ephemeral GOP bounce, as Gillibrand is quickly moving out of the reach of the Republicans. Kentucky continues to be one of the few legitimate Democratic flip opportunities, with Jack Conway still lingering tantalyzingly close to the lead. Meanwhile, Wisconsin looks bad, which is pretty evident when even Democratic polling puts the awful Ron Johnson in the lead. Hard to know if the poll out of the Golden State is an outlier, because the firm that conducted it (Angus Reid) is best known for covering Canadian elections. It is also a poll of registered, rather than likely, voters.
THE U.S. HOUSE
- Alabama-02 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Martha Roby (R) 45%, Rep. Bobby Bright (D) 43%
- Arkansas-04 (Diamond State--R):
Rep. Mike Ross (D) 44%, Beth Anne Rankin (R) 41%, Josh Drake (G) 5%
- California-18 (SurveyUSA):
Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) 50%, Mike Berryhill (R) 44%
- California-18 (JMM Research--D):
Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) 53%, Mike Berryhill (R) 37%
- Connecticut-02 (Merriman River Group):
Rep. Joe Courtney (D) 55%, Janet Peckinpaugh (R) 41%
- Connecticut-03 (Merriman River Group):
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D) 58%, Jerry Labriola (R) 37%
- Idaho-01 (Moore Information--R):
Rep. Walt Minnick (D) 37%, Raul Labrador (R) 31%, Others 12%
- Kansas-01 (SurveyUSA):
Tim Huelskamp (R) 63%, Alan Jilka (D) 26%, Jack Warner (L) 5%
- Kansas-04 (SurveyUSA):
Mike Pompeo (R) 53%, Raj Goyle (D) 40%, Others 4%
- Kentucky-06 (Mellman Group--D):
Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 52%, Andy Barr (R) 40%
- Kentucky-06 (Tarrance Group--R):
Andy Barr (R) 48%, Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 47%
- Michigan-15 (Rossman/Team Telcom--R):
Rob Steele (R) 44%, Rep. John Dingell (D) 40%
- Mississippi-01 (Tarrance Group--R):
Alan Nunnelee (R) 51%, Rep. Travis Childers (D) 40%
- New York-04 (McLaughlin--R):
Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) 46%, Fran Becker (R) 45%
- New York-19 (Iona College):
Rep. John Hall (D) 42%, Nan Hayworth (R) 42%
- New York-25 (McLaughlin--R):
Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 40%, Rep. Dan Maffei (D) 39%
- Pennsylvania-10 (Tarrance Group--R):
Tom Marino (R) 47%, Rep. Chris Carney (D) 42%
- Tennessee-04 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) 42%, Scott DesJarlais (R) 42%
- Texas-17 (Bennett Petts Normington--D):
Bill Flores (R) 46%, Rep. Chet Edwards (D) 42%
THE ANALYSIS: Granted, a lot of what we see here is GOP internal polling, so take with the requisite salt. That said, the real depression here lies in the fact that there are a number of races here that were very low on the target list, yet seem quite competitive. Democrats have to hope that the recent early week delivery of Democratic internal polls comes with some good news to start the week, because almost nothing here can be construed as good news.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
THE ANALYSIS: Carl Paladino's implosion has had a clear impact on the race in the Empire State. Even SUSA (a pollster that has been pretty pessimistic about Dem prospects this cycle) has it as a 20+ point race, at this point. Meanwhile, Mason Dixon gives us a ray of sunshine in the Sunshine State. After a bunch of pollsters showed a bit of a mini-surge for the GOP's Rick Scott, the M-D crew give Alex Sink a four-point edge. Meanwhile, see the Senate section for a couple of minor caveats about that California poll.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras gets into the mood of the weekend, with pretty rosy numbers for the GOP pretty much everywhere. The only race where the GOP doesn't beat the point spread might be Nevada, where it is still a double-digit lead for Brian Sandoval nevertheless.
FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 25%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%
MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 38%, Tom Horner (I) 15%
NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 53%, Rory Reid (D) 40%, Others 2%
SD-Gov: Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%, Scott Heidepriem (D) 33%
WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) 49%, Sen. Patty Murray (D) 46%