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Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/9-10. Likely voters. MoE 2.4% (No trend lines)

1. In the election for US Senate will you vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, or someone else?

Joe Miller (R) 35
Scott McAdams (D) 26
Someone Else 35

2. [For those who said "someone else" in the first question:] Are you planning to vote for nonaffiliated candidate Tim Carter, nonaffiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Fredrick Haase, or are you going to write in Lisa Murkowski or are you planning to write in someone else?

Lisa Murkowski (R) 95
Other 5

Composite:

Joe Miller (R) 35
Lisa Murkowski (R) 33
Scott McAdams (D) 26

Apparently, Alaskans love to answer polls, giving PPP 1,678 responses for a tiny 2.4 percent MoE. That's a massive sample, as far as polling goes, giving us great confidence in these results.

Joe Miller is getting 61 percent of Republicans, compared to 31 percent who stick with Murkowski. Independents split 38 percent Murkowski, 29 percent for Miller, and 25 percent for McAdams.

But Murkowski is competitive because of the 25 percent of Democrats who plan to write her in. Indeed, 35 percent of Obama voters plan on voting for Murkowski, compared to 58 percent that stick with McAdams.

Take that 35 percent who think they're doing something useful propping up Murkowski (and Mitch McConnell, who she has promised to vote for), give those votes to McAdams, and he's suddenly at 39 percent, or in the lead. In other words, the Democrats can win this seat if they come home to their excellent candidate.

The challenge for McAdams is to convince Democrats that he is viable in a split race, encouraging those Democrats to come home. For Murkowski, the challenge is to keep those Democrats afraid of wasting their vote while picking up the tiny number of undecideds. And for Miller? He better hope none of the above happens, as his support appears to be maxed out.

There is no intensity gap in Alaska. In fact, the sample is eight points more Democratic than the 2008 results. Alaska GOP performance was boosted in 2008 with their half-term governor on the presidential ticket. (We've seen the opposite effect in Illinois, Delaware, and Hawaii, where their native sons boosted Democratic performance, turning into massive intensity gaps this year.)

In the governor's race, this may be the first poll all cycle showing this as a single-digit race. Unfortunately for Democrat Ethan Berkowitz, the Republican incumbent is above 50 percent:

Sean Parnell (R) 51
Ethan Berkowitz (D) 42

Two more data points -- Freshman Sen. Mark Begich has low job approval ratings -- 39/48. He's actually neutral with independents at 42/43. It's his 12/75 among his state's huge GOP demo that puts him under.

The other data point of note is Sarah Palin's terrible favorability rating of 35/57. Among Republicans, it's 59/30. Among Independents it's 29/63. And among Democrats, 8/86.

If you're keeping score (and I am), that makes Sarah Palin more unpopular in Alaska than Barack Obama (38/55).

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 09:46 AM PDT.

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