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Today this series find the first democrat from Maryland after prepare the list for it with the help of some readers and voters in yesterday's diary for a Previous Selection. I wish remember what the series find the three first democrats from every blue state because they are three highest level offices in every state, the two senate seats and the governor's office. With the best candidates is always easier win the highest level offices in every state.

I encourage to the people what know not this series to visit "The point of the series" (the first link) where I try to explain many things about this work. It is necessary because I'm in the limits for the number of characters for a diary in dailykos. Today is the last day what I can include the first box (quote), since today this box will be only in the diary for the point of the series.

Sometimes the diaries of this series only confirms son obvious things, and before know results about Maryland this state seems to have a so stable political situation what makes to think we will have few surprises from Maryland. But this series always gives the chance of talk and vote to the people.

This series looks to the short-term too, and will have a diary adapted to the gubernatorial race of this year: M O'Malley (D) vs R Ehrlich (R).

If you know not previously the series I encourage you to visit the next link:

The point of the series.

I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this series. I use schematic language for give the biographical data for keep the maximum information and for keep the series under the limits for the number of characters for a diary in Dailykos.

First we can look to the different states.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS

This quote gives a schematic and fast resume about the offices what hold the republicans currently. We can see like the democrats from every state are converting their majority social support in political power. We can see like they are margin for improve in the bluest states.

  1. Maine: 2/2 Senate.
  1. Nevada: 1/2 Senate. Governor. 1/3 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Iowa: 1/2 Senate. 2/5 House. 2 Statewide officers.
  1. Massachusetts: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Hampshire: 1/2 Senate.
  1. Hawaii: Governor. 1/2 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. New Jersey: Governor. 5/13 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Minnesota: Governor. 3/8 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. California: Governor. 19/53 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Vermont: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Connecticut: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. (Without include J Lieberman).
  1. Rhode Island: Governor.
  1. Delaware: 1/1 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Michigan: 7/15 House. 2 Statewide Officers. MI Senate majority.
  1. Wisconsin: 3/8 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Pennsylvania: 7/19 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer. PA Senate majority.
  1. Illinois: 7/19 House.
  1. Washington: 3/9 House. 2 Statewide Officers.
  1. Colorado: 2/7 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Oregon: 1/5 House.
  1. Maryland: 1/8 House.
  1. New York: 2/29 House.
  1. New Mexico: 1 Statewide Officer.

For the national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.

REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES.

This quote looks to the alone election in the national level, the election for President. In the end of the series will be updated with a new diary about the republicans from the bluest states what sound for President.

Rank by seriousnes:

2010 diary
2009 diary

  1. Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
  1. Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
  1. Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.
  1. Scott Philip Brown: ME MA 1959 Senator from Massachusetts 10- .
  1. Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
  1. Christopher James Christie: NJ 1962 Governor of New Jersey 10- . Lost for NJ state house 95. Lost for the Morris County Board of CF 98.
  1. George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
  1. Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
  1. John Robert Bolton: MD 1948 US Ambassador to the UN 05-06.
  1. John Eric Ensign: CA NV 1958 Senator from Nevada 01- . USHRep 95-99. Lost for senate 98.

All they would be special level political targets for the democrats, including J Ensign affected by scandals but still active and fighting for continue.

But we will see all they in his home state and we will have better reference about they.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Some persons what hold (now or in the past) one of the offices with highest precedence at national level are over this series. Examples: B Obama, W Clinton, J Biden, N Pelosi or H Clinton. They will not be included in the polls for their home (blue) state.

In this box will be orange emphasized the democrats included in the series by hold not still one of the highest level offices in the country but placed by the voters over the state level politicians in his/her home state.

CO0: Diana Louisse DeGette: JAP CO 1957 USHRep 97- .
VT0: Howard Brush Dean III: NY VT 1948 Governor of Vermont 91-03. Lieutenant Governor of VT 87-91. Lost for President in 04.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

No-one republican comes until this level.

For state level:

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

RI1: John Frances Reed: RI 1949 Senator from Rhode Island 97- . USHRep 91-97.
CT1: Richard Blumenthal: NY CT 1946 CT Attorney General 90- .
WI1: Russell Dana Feingold: WI 1953 Senator from Wisconsin 93- .
VT1: Bernard Sanders (Ind): NY VT 1941 Senator from Vermont 07- . USHRep 91-07. Lost for Senate 72 and 74. Lost for Governor 72, 76 and 86. Lost for House 88.
NY1: Charles Ellis Schumer: NY 1949 Senator from New York 99- . USHRep 81-99.
WA1: Patricia Lynn Murray: WA 1950 Senator from Washington 93- .
CA1: Barbara Levy Boxer: NY CA 1940 Senator from California 93- . USHRep 83-93. Lost for Marin County Board of Supervisors 72.
IL1: Richard Joseph Durbin: IL 1944 Senator from Illinois 97- . USHRep 83-97.
DE1: Edward E Kaufman: PA DE 1939 Senator from Delaware 09- .
MA1: John Forbes Kerry: CO MA 1943 D Presidential Nominee 04. Senator from Massachusetts 85- . Lieutenant Governor of MA 83-85. Lost for President 04. Lost for House 72.
OR1: Jeffrey Alan Merkley: OR 1956 Senator from Oregon 09- .
MI1: Carl Milton Levin: MI 1934 Senator from Michigan 79- .
HI1: Daniel Ken Inouye: HI 1924 Senator from Hawaii 63- . USHRep 59-63.
NH1: Cynthia Jeanne Shaheen: MO NH 1947 Senator from New Hampshire 09- . Governor of New Hampshire 97-03. Lost for senate 02.
NJ1: Robert Menendez: NY NJ 1954 Senator from New Jersey 06- . USHRep 93-06. Lost for Mayor of Union City 82.
MN1: Alan Stuart Franken: NY MN 1951 Senator from Minnesota 09- .
PA1: Robert Patrick Casey Jr: PA 1960 Senator from Pennsylvania 07- . PA State Treasurer 05-07. PA State Auditor 97-05. Lost for Governor 02.
CO1: John Wright Hickenlooper: PA CO 1952 Mayor of Denver 03- .
IA1: Thomas Richard Harkin: IA 1939 Senator from Iowa 85- . USHRep 75-85. Lost for President 92. Lost for House 72.
NV1: Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
ME1: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.
MD1: Today

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---

ME: C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
IA: T Harkin (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 13 votes = 03.846 => Leans Republican
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 14 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 14 votes = 05.357 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 17 votes = 05.588 => Toss-Up
ME: C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 18 votes = 06.481 => Leans Democratic
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs C Smith (R) after 25 votes = 06.533 => Leans Democratic
IA: T Harkin (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 18 votes = 06.574 => Leans Democratic

Other special diaries about the more competitive elections in 2010 and about the possible new candidates for 2012 or 2014 elections:

WI: R Feingold (D) vs R Johnson (R) after 42 votes = 04.921 => Toss-Up
DE: E Kaufman (D) vs M Castle (R) after 20 votes = 05.167 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs S Angle (R) after 50 votes = 06.000 => Leans Democratic
CA: B Boxer (D) vs C Fiorina (R) after 53 votes = 06.603 => Leans Democratic
WA: P Murray (D) vs D Rossi (R) after 19 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. O Snowe
  1. S Collins
  1. C Grassley
  1. B Krolicki

All they would be special level political targets for the democrats.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

RI2: Sheldon Whitehouse: RI 1955 Senator from Rhode Island 07- . RI Attorney General 99-03. Lost for Governor 02.
PA2: Joseph A Sestak: PA 1951 USHRep 07- .
VT2: Patrick Joseph Leahy: VT 1940 Senator from Vermont 75- .
DE2: Thomas Richard Carper: WV DE 1947 Senator from Delaware 01- . Governor of Delaware 93-01. USHRep 83-93. DE State Treasurer 77-82.
NY2: Andrew Mark Cuomo: NY 1957 Secretary of HUD 97-01. NY Attorney General 07- . Lost for Governor 02.
OR2: Ronald Lee Wyden: KS OR 1949 Senator from Oregon 96- . USHRep 81-96.
NH2: John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
MN2: Keith Maurice Ellison: MI MN 1963 USHRep 07- .
CT2: Susan Bysiewicz: CT 1961 CT Secretary of State 99- . Lost for Governor 10.
CA2: Debra Bowen: IL CA 1955 CA Secretary of State 07- .
IL2: Lisa Madigan: IL 1966 IL Attorney General 03- .
CO2: Kenneth Lee Salazar: CO 1955 Secretary of Interior 09- . Senator from Colorado 05-09. CO Attorney General 99-05.
WA2: Maria E Cantwell: IN WA 1958 Senator from Washington 01- . USHRep 93-95. Lost for House 94.
HI2: Neil Abercrombie: NY HI 1938 USHRep 86-87 91-10. Lost for Senate 70. Lost for House 86.
MA2: Joseph Patrick Kennedy: MA 1952 USHRep 87-99.
WI2: Thomas Mark Barrett: WI 1953 USHRep 93-03. Mayor of Milwaukee 04- . Lost for Governor 02. Lost for WI state house 82.
MI2: Deborah Ann Greer Stabenow: MI 1950 Senator from Michigan 01- . USHRep 97-01. Lost for Governor 94. Lost for Lieutenant Governor of MI 94.
NV2: Frankie Sue Del Papa: NV 1949 NV Secretary of State 87-91. NV Attorney General 91-03.
IA2: Thomas James Vilsack: PA IA 1950 Secretary of Agriculture 09- . Governor of Iowa 99-07. Lost for President 08.  
ME2: John Elias Baldacci: ME 1955 Governor of ME 03-11. USHRep 95-03.
NJ2: Richard James Codey: NJ 1946 Governor of New Jersey 04-06. Acting governor of New Jersey 02-02. President of NJ Senate 02-08 08-10.
MD2: The second democrat from MD

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

IA: T Vilsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 15 votes = 03.444 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 11 votes = 03.485 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 32 votes = 03.649 => Leans Republican
NJ: R Codey (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs S Collins (R) after 21 votes = 04.365 => Toss-Up
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 20 votes = 04.667 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 04.697 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Smith (R) after 18 votes = 04,722 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Christie (R) after 17 votes = 05.196 => Toss-Up
DE: T Carper (D) vs M Castle (R) after 08 votes = 05.208 => Toss-Up
MI: D Stabenow (D) vs J Engler (R) after 22 votes = 05.227 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 11 votes = 05.303 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
CO: K Salazar (D) vs W Allard (R) after 09 votes = 05.370 => Toss-Up
PA: J Sestak (D) vs M Schweiker (R) after 19 votes = 05.526 => Toss-Up
CO: K Salazar (D) vs M Coffman (R) after 08 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 06.319 => Leans Democratic
MI: D Stabenow (D) vs R Snyder (R) after 14 votes = 05.952 => Leans Democratic
VT: P Leahy (D) vs J Douglas (R) after 20 votes = 07.167 => Likely Democratic

Other special diaries about the more competitive elections in 2010 and about the possible new candidates for 2012 or 2014 elections:

CA: D Bowen (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 28 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
MN: K Ellison (D) vs T Pawlenty (R) after 34 votes = 05.392 => Toss-Up
WI: T Barrett (D) vs S Walker (R) after 27 votes = 05.494 => Toss-Up
PA: J Sestak (D) vs P Toomey (R) after 19 votes = 05.614 => Toss-Up
MA: J Kennedy (D) vs S Brown (R) after 31 votes = 06.398 => Leans Democratic
IL: L Madigan (D) vs A Schock (R) after 28 votes = 06.964 => Leans Democratic
CT: S Bysiewicz (D) vs J Lieberman (Ind) after 32 votes = 07.292 => Likely Democr
HI: N Abercrombie (D) vs J Aiona (R) after 15 votes = 08.750 => Safe Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. B Sandoval
  1. F LoBiondo
  1. P Mills (teabagged)
  1. T Branstad
  1. R Frelinghuysen
  1. C Smith

All they would be special level political targets for the democrats.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

WI3: Tammy Suzanne Green Baldwin: WI 1962 USHRep 99- .
HI3: Eric Ken Shinseki: HI 1942 Secretary of Veteran Affairs 09- .
WA3: Christine O'Grady Gregoire: MI WA 1947 Governor of Washington 05- . WA Attorney General 93-05.
CA3: Edmund Gerald Brown: CA 1938 Governor of California 75-83. CA Secretary of State 71-75. CA Attorney General 07-11. Lost for President 76 80 and 92. Lost for Senate 82.
RI3: Frank T Caprio: RI 1966 RI General Treasurer 07- .
OR3: John Albert Kitzhaber: WA OR 1947 Governor of Oregon 95-03.
IL3: Janice D Schakowsky: IL 1944 USHRep 99- .
NY3: Kirsten Elizabeth Rutnik Gillibrand: NY 1966 Senator from New York 09- . USHRep 07-09.
MN3: Amy Jean Klobuchar: MN 1960 Senator from Minnesota 07- .
MA3: Michael Everett Capuano: MA 1952 USHRep 99- . Lost for senate 10.
CT3: Dannel Malloy: CT 1955 Lost for Governor 06.
DE3: Jack A Markell: DE 1960 Governor of Delaware 09- . DE State Treasurer 99-09.
VT3: Deborah Markowitz: NY VT 1961 VT Secretary of State 99- .
MI3: Jennifer Mulhern Granholm: CANA MI 1959 Governor of Michigan 03- . MI Attorney General 99-03.
PA3: Patrick Joseph Murphy: PA 1973 USHRep 07- .
CO3: Mark Emery Udall: AZ CO 1950 Senator from Colorado 09- . USHRep 99-09.
IA3: Chester John Culver: DC IA 1966 Governor 07- . IA Secretary of State 99-07.
ME3: Michael Herman Michaud: ME 1955 USHRep 03- . President ME Senate 00-02.
NH3: Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
NV3: Robert Joseph Miller: IL NV 1945 Governor of Nevada 89-99. Lieutenant Governor of NV 87-89.
NJ3: William Warren Bradley: MO NJ 1943 Senator from New Jersey 79-97. Lost for President 00.
MD3: The third democrat from MD.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

NJ: W Bradley (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 11 votes = 03.030 => Leans Republican
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 03.222 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.431 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 29 votes = 03.506 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs D Heller (R) after 09 votes = 03.519 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 28 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Smith (R) after 11 votes = 03.636 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 03.788 => Leans Repub
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.048 => Leans Republican
DE: J Markell (D) vs M Castle (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 08 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 24 votes = 04.375 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Christie (R) after 20 votes = 04.583 => Toss-Up
CO: M Udall (D) vs W Allard (R) after 12 votes = 04.722 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 07 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 14 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs M Schweiker (R) after 09 votes = 04.815 => Toss-Up
CO: M Udall (D) vs M Coffman (R) after 09 votes = 04.815 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs R Snyder (R) after 19 votes = 04.825 => Toss-Up
VT: D Markowitz (D) vs J Douglas (R) after 12 votes = 04.861 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs J Engler (R) after 14 votes = 04.881 => Toss-Up
ME: M Michaud (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs T Corbett (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs P Toomey (R) after 19 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 17 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs F Upton (R) after 11 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs S Garrett (R) after 13 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
IA: C Culver (D) vs D Vaudt (R) after 17 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs C Miller (R) after 14 votes = 05.119 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs P Ryan (R) after 14 votes = 05.119 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs J Sensenbrenner (R) after 14 votes = 05.119 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Lowden (R) after 11 votes = 05.152 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs T Platts (R) after 09 votes = 05.185 => Toss-Up
CO: M Udall (D) vs K Buck (R) after 15 votes = 05.222 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs J Ensign (R) after 21 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
WA: C Gregoire (D) vs C McMorris Rodgers (R) after 14 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
NY: K Gillibrand (D) vs G Pataki (R) after 51 votes = 05.327 => Toss-Up
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs T Pawlenty (R) after 25 votes = 05.333 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Angle (R) after 15 votes = 05.333 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs R Johnson (R) after 14 votes = 05.357 => Toss-Up
MA: M Capuano (D) vs C Baker (R) after 13 votes = 05.385 => Toss-Up
IA: C Culver (D) vs T Latham (R) after 19 votes = 05.439 => Toss-Up
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs A Schock (R) after 23 votes = 05.507 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs J Aiona (R) after 13 votes = 05.513 => Toss-Up
CO: M Udall (D) vs D Lamborn (R) after 13 votes = 05.513 => Toss-Up
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs J Edgar (R) after 18 votes = 05.556 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs L Lingle (R) after 15 votes = 05.556 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs S Walker (R) after 11 votes = 05.606 => Toss-Up
CT: D Malloy (D) vs J Rell (R) after 10 votes = 05.667 => Toss-Up
VT: D Markowitz (D) vs B Dubie (R) after 12 votes = 05.694 => Toss-Up
WA: C Gregoire (D) vs R McKenna (R) after 16 votes = 05.729 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Sununu (R) after 13 votes = 05.769 => Leans Democratic
OR: J Kitzhaber (D) vs G Walden (R) after 12 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs M Seifert (R) after 22 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Whitman (R) after 25 votes = 05.867 => Leans Democrat
IA: C Culver (D) vs W Northey (R) after 15 votes = 05.889 => Leans Democratic
PA: P Murphy (D) vs W Shuster (R) after 13 votes = 05.897 => Leans Democratic
MI: J Granholm (D) vs M Rogers (R) after 11 votes = 05.909 => Leans Democratic
OR: J Kitzhaber (D) vs G Smith (R) after 12 votes = 05.972 => Leans Democratic
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs P Roskam (R) after 24 votes = 05.972 => Leans Democrat
OR: J Kitzhaber (D) (D) vs C Dudley (R) after 19 votes = 06.053 => Leans Democr
RI: F Caprio (D) vs D Carcieri (R) after 03 votes = 06.111 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D Nunes (R) after 18 votes = 06.204 => Leans Democratic
PA: P Murphy (D) vs J Scarnati (R) after 23 votes = 06.232 => Leans Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs M Neumann (R) after 16 votes = 06.250 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs A Schwarzenegger (R) after 20 votes = 06.333 => Leans D
MI: J Granholm (D) vs P Hoekstra (R) after 20 votes = 06.333 => Leans Democratic
CT: D Malloy (D) vs J Lieberman (Ind) after 23 votes = 06.377 => Leans Democratic
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs W Brady (R) after 18 votes = 06.389 => Leans Democratic
CT: D Malloy (D) vs T Foley (R) after 13 votes = 06.410 => Leans Democratic
MA: M Capuano (D) vs M Romney (R) after 27 votes = 06.419 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs C Fiorina (R) after 29 votes = 06.437 => Leans Democratic
MA: M Capuano (D) vs S Brown (R) after 54 votes = 06.481 => Leans Democratic
VT: D Markowitz (D) vs T M Salmon (R) after 10 votes = 06.500 => Leans Democrat
WA: C Gregoire (D) vs D Rossi (R) after 21 votes = 06.508 => Leans Democratic
MI: J Granholm (D) vs M Cox (R) after 12 votes = 06.528 => Leans Democratic
CO: M Udall (D) vs W Owens (R) after 07 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs E Paulsen (R) after 20 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democrat
CO: M Udall (D) vs J Suthers (R) after 08 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic
DE: J Markell (D) vs T Wagner (R) after 11 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs D Manzullo (R) after 30 votes = 06.722 => Leans Democr
NV: R J Miller (D) vs J Gibbons (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P LePage (R) after 15 votes = 06.778 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs C Benson (R) after 14 votes = 06.786 => Leans Democratic
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs C Djou (R) after 24 votes = 06.806 => Leans Democratic
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs M Kirk (R) after 39 votes = 06.838 => Leans Democratic
PA: P Murphy (D) vs R Santorum (R) after 16 votes = 06.875 => Leans Democratic
NY: K Gillibrand (D) vs R Giuliani (R) after 08 votes = 07.083 => Leans Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs J Van Hollen (R) after 15 votes = 07.111 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs R Grams (R) after 26 votes = 07.179 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs K McCarthy (R) after 18 votes = 07.222 => Likely Democr
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs R Kasten (R) after 16 votes = 07.292 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D D Hunter (R) after 20 votes = 07.583 => Likely Democrat
MI: J Granholm (D) vs T McCotter (R) after 18 votes = 07.778 => Likely Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs S McCallum (R) after 10 votes = 07.833 => Likely Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs N Coleman (R) after 37 votes = 07.883 => Likely Democrat
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs T Emmer (R) after 30 votes = 08.222 => Likely Democratic
NY: K Gillibrand (D) vs C Lee (R) after 09 votes = 08.704 => Safe Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs A Maldonado (R) after 06 votes = 09.167 => Safe Democrat

REPUBLICANS OVER THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. J Gregg
  1. D Heller
  1. M Castle (teabagged)
  1. C Christie (vulnerable)
  1. W Allard (vulnerable)
  1. S Merrill (vulnerable)
  1. K Ayotte (vulnerable)
  1. M Schweiker (vulnerable)
  1. M Coffman (vulnerable)
  1. R Snyder (vulnerable)
  1. J Douglas (vulnerable)
  1. J Engler (vulnerable)

All they would be special level political targets for the democrats.

LIKELY INCUMBENTS IN THE NEXT CYCLE NO-SELECTED

This group includes incumbents what likely will continue after 2010 elections with or without reelection, and competitive candidates for 2010 elections what likely will win.

DENS: Christopher A Coons: CT DE 1963.
MNNS: Mark Brandt Dayton: MN 1947 Senator from Minnesota 01-07. MN State Auditor 91-95. Lost for Senate 82. Lost for Governor 98.
MANS: Deval Laurdine Patrick: MA 1956 Governor of Massachusetts 07- .

CANS: Dianne Goldman Berman Feinstein: CA 1933 Senator from California 92- . Mayor of San Francisco 78-88. Lost for Mayor of San Francisco 71 and 75. Lost for Governor 90.
HINS: Daniel Kahikina Akaka: HI 1924 Senator from Hawaii 90- . USHRep 77-90.
NJNS: Frank Raleigh Lautenberg: NJ 1924 Senator from New Jersey 82-01 03- .  
WINS: Herbert H Kohl: WI 1935 Senator from Wisconsin 89- .

CONS: Michael Farrand Bennet: IND CO 1964 Senator from Colorado 09- .
ILNS: Alexander Giannoulias: IL 1976 IL Treasurer 07- .
ILNS: Patrick Joseph Quinn: IL 1948 Governor of Illinois 09- . Lieutenant Governor of IL 03-09. IL State Treasurer 91-95. Lost for Senate 96. Lost for Lieutenant Governor of IL 98. Lost for IL Secretary of State 94. Lost for IL State Treasurer 86.

NO-SELECTED DEMOCRATS VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

CO: M Bennet (D) vs K Buck (R) after 18 votes = 05.093 => Toss-UP
IL: P Quinn (D) vs W Brady (R) after 29 votes = 05.172 => Toss-Up
WI: H Kohl (D) vs P Ryan (R) after 31 votes = 05.323 => Toss-Up
NJ: F Lautenberg (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 18 votes = 05.463 => Toss-Up
MA: D Patrick (D) vs C Baker (R) after 17 votes = 05.687 => Toss-Up
IL: A Giannoulias (D) vs M Kirk (R) after 52 votes = 05.897 => Toss-Up
MN: M Dayton (D) vs T Emmer (R) after 29 votes = 06.724 => Leans Democratic
CA: D Feinstein (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 26 votes = 06.731 => Leans Democrat
HI: D Akaka (D) vs L Lingle (R) after 26 votes = 06.731 => Leans Democratic

Waiting better news about R Conlin (IA-Sen), D Onorato (PA-Gov), P Shumlin (VT-Gov), R Reid (NV-Gov), E Mitchell (ME-Gov) and V Bernero (MI-Gov).

Like the readers can see, this series takes J Lieberman (Ind) in the side of the adversaries because the voters here decide that by long margin.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER REPUBLICAN GERRYMANDER REDISTRICTING FOR THE U.S. HOUSE DISTRICTS

In the 23 states included in these series, the bluest states, they are 78 US House districts with R+ rate following the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The republicans hold currently 53 of these districts and the democrats 25, with risk of lose more in November elections.

In the 27 states included not in this series, some of they swing states like Ohio, Florida and others, they are only 50 D+ or EVEN districts. The republicans hold cnly two (LA-02 and OH-12).

Looking to the redistricting I make this rank what can show the current situation.

From Wikipedia: "Gerrymandering is a form of boundary delimitation (redistricting) in which electoral district or constituency boundaries are deliberately modified for electoral purposes, thereby producing a contorted or unusual shape. The resulting district is known as a gerrymander; however, that word can also refer to the process. Gerrymandering may be used to achieve desired electoral results for a particular party..."

I create the RGR (Republican Gerrymander Redistricting) rate for try see what states have worse redistricting for democrats. In a 0.000-1.000 scale with 1.000 as absolute republican gerrymander redistricting:

RGR=0.487 D+05 Michigan
RGR=0.369 D+07 New Jersey
RGR=0.368 D+09 Illinois
RGR=0.360 D+08 California
RGR=0.325 D+03 Minnesota
RGR=0.300 D+04 Oregon
RGR=0.259 D+12 New York
RGR=0.250 D+03 Wisconsin
RGR=0.250 D+09 Maryland
RGR=0.247 D+02 Pennsylvania
RGR=0.222 D+04 Washington
RGR=0.133 D+02 Nevada
RGR=0.100 D+06 Maine
RGR=0.086 D+00 Colorado
RGR=0.060 D+07 Connecticut
RGR=0.033 D+02 New Mexico
RGR=0.000 D+01 Iowa
RGR=0.000 D+01 New Hampshire
RGR=0.000 D+12 Massachusetts
RGR=0.000 D+07 Delaware
RGR=0.000 D+11 Rhode Island
RGR=0.000 D+13 Hawaii
RGR=0.000 D+13 Vermont

Some blue states are still affected by previous republican gerrymander redistricting, like we can see, and need an urgent redistricting.

The links in the state names go to my diaries about democratic gerrymander redistricting (always finding the limits) for these states in Swing State Project.

My way for redistrict New York is recogniced as winner in Swing State Project Contest for this state with nice words. Thanks to SSP. And thanks to Dave for his application for redistricting. If you wish help him for add new data, you can go here.

Many times the Governor, the State Senate and the State House are key in the redistricting process, cause of that is very important have a democratic majority. In HI, ME, WA, NJ and IA they are independent or bipartisan commissions for redistricting. For the remaining 27 states we can see the same only for ID and AZ. The republicans take advantage of this again.

These are the percentages of the current democratic delegations:

40.0% PA State Senate
42.1% MI State Senate

51.2% PA State House
51.6% NY State Senate
52.5% WI State House
54.5% WI State Senate
55.6% NH State House
56.0% IA State House
56.9% CO State House
57.1% ME State Senate
57.1% NV State Senate
57.5% NJ State Senate
58.3% NH State Senate
58.5% DE State House
58.8% NJ State House
59.3% IL State House
60.0% OR State House
60.0% MI State House
60.0% CO State Senate
60.0% OR State Senate
62.0% CA State House
62.2% WA State House
62.7% IL State Senate
63.2% WA State Senate
63.6% ME State House
64.0% IA State Senate
64.1% CA State Senate
64.3% NM State House
64.3% NM State Senate
64.9% MN State House
66.7% NV State House
66.7% CT State Senate
68.0% VT State House
68.7% MN State Senate
70.2% MD State Senate
71.4% DE State Senate
71.8% NY State House
73.8% MD State House
75.5% CT State House
77.0% VT State Senate
86.8% RI State Senate
87.5% MA State Senate
88.2% HI State House
90.0% MA State House
92.0% RI State House
92.0% HI State Senate

The republicans can win full control of the redistricting process in:

PA: If win the governor and the majority in the state house.
WI: If win the governor and the majority in both state chambers.

The republicans can block a democratic redistrictig in:

MI: If keep the majority in the state senate or win the governor.
NV: If win the

Originally posted to abgin on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:50 AM PDT.

Poll

Choose the best, the democrat number one in Maryland.

41%5 votes
8%1 votes
8%1 votes
0%0 votes
8%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
8%1 votes
25%3 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes

| 12 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  english (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    I trust that english is not your native language. If so, please get help with the editing in the future. I am sure there are many people who would gladly help including ME. I found reading this to be very painful though also very informative.

    Thanks for taking the time to share.

    •  Thank you (0+ / 0-)

      Yes, true, like I explain some times I'm not a native speaker.

      If you wish help me editing some think would be good for me. I would like at last improve the explanation what I give in the point of the series, because it is a text what read many people what wish understand well the point of the series. But take not it as an obligation. You have not the obligation of help.

      •  I would be happy to help (0+ / 0-)

        I live in Annapolis, Md., if that is any help. of course, all of this can be done through the net probably even easier. Just let me know how I can help.

        •  I appreciate very much your help (0+ / 0-)

          Well, you are the first person what I know from Annapolis :) I think, the more important part for make corrections is the Point of the series and the body of the diary. The introductions can be less importants. What you think? I think this can be the right way for improve the series with not very high efforts from you.

          The text what I propose to you for improve is just this:

          BODY OF THE DIARIES

          "If you know not previously the series I encourage you to visit the next link:"

          ---

          "I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this series. I use schematic language for give the biographical data for keep the maximum information and for keep the series under the limits for the number of characters for a diary in Dailykos.

          First we can look to the different states."

          ---

          "RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS

          This quote gives a schematic and fast resume about the offices what hold the republicans currently. We can see like the democrats from every state are converting their majority social support in political power. We can see like they are margin for improve in the bluest states."

          ---

          "For the national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.

          REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES.

          This quote looks to the alone election in the national level, the election for President. In the end of the series will be updated with a new diary about the republicans from the bluest states what sound for President."

          ---

          "All they would be special level political targets for the democrats, including J Ensign affected by scandals but still active and fighting for continue.

          But we will see all they in his home state and we will have better reference about they."

          ---

          "DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

          Some persons what hold (now or in the past) one of the offices with highest precedence at national level are over this series. Examples: B Obama, W Clinton, J Biden, N Pelosi or H Clinton. They will not be included in the polls for their home (blue) state.

          In this box will be orange emphasized the democrats included in the series by hold not still one of the highest level offices in the country but placed by the voters over the state level politicians in his/her home state."

          ---

          "LIKELY INCUMBENTS IN THE NEXT CYCLE NO-SELECTED

          This group includes incumbents what likely will continue after 2010 elections with or without reelection, and competitive candidates for 2010 elections what likely will win."

          ---

          "Like the readers can see, this series takes J Lieberman (Ind) in the side of the adversaries because the voters here decide that by long margin."

          ---

          "RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER REPUBLICAN GERRYMANDER REDISTRICTING FOR THE U.S. HOUSE DISTRICTS

          In the 23 states included in these series, the bluest states, they are 78 US House districts with R+ rate following the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The republicans hold currently 53 of these districts and the democrats 25, with risk of lose more in November elections.

          In the 27 states included not in this series, some of they swing states like Ohio, Florida and others, they are only 50 D+ or EVEN districts. The republicans hold cnly two (LA-02 and OH-12).

          Looking to the redistricting I make this rank what can show the current situation.

          From Wikipedia: "Gerrymandering is a form of boundary delimitation (redistricting) in which electoral district or constituency boundaries are deliberately modified for electoral purposes, thereby producing a contorted or unusual shape. The resulting district is known as a gerrymander; however, that word can also refer to the process. Gerrymandering may be used to achieve desired electoral results for a particular party..."

          I create the RGR (Republican Gerrymander Redistricting) rate for try see what states have worse redistricting for democrats. In a 0.000-1.000 scale with 1.000 as absolute republican gerrymander redistricting:"

          ---

          "Some blue states are still affected by previous republican gerrymander redistricting, like we can see, and need an urgent redistricting.

          The links in the state names go to my diaries about democratic gerrymander redistricting (always finding the limits) for these states in Swing State Project.

          My way for redistrict New York is recogniced as winner in Swing State Project Contest for this state with nice words. Thanks to SSP. And thanks to Dave for his application for redistricting. If you wish help him for add new data, you can go here.

          Many times the Governor, the State Senate and the State House are key in the redistricting process, cause of that is very important have a democratic majority. In HI, ME, WA, NJ and IA they are independent or bipartisan commissions for redistricting. For the remaining 27 states we can see the same only for ID and AZ. The republicans take advantage of this again.

          These are the percentages of the current democratic delegations:"

          ---

          "If you see this diary after days, you can see the last actualization of this serie in my last diary. All the polls continue open to new votes still. The results of the polls of previous diaries are updated too in the last diary. For see my last diary click in "abgin's diary"."

          THE POINT OF THE SERIES

          "I think the Democratic Party is a national party what must work every race, but sometimes it is not realistic to think what the party can fight with the same strength for all the races. They are differences and surely the first difference what we can find is about what think the majority of the people what vote in every constituency for every race. The constituencies can be states, for statewide races, congressional districts, state senate districts,...  

          I think what to have a favorable majority increases highly the chance of win the races in this constituency, and gives to the party the chance of work in the role of the dominant party. And the strategy for a dominant party can not be the same than the strategy of the secondary party. While a dominant party can think in win all the offices with the best candidates running for the highest level offices, the secondary party must think in take advantage of the weaknesses of the dominant party for make run his best candidates for the offices where they see weakness.

          This series works some states, but is not against a 50 states strategy. I find the series work part of the strategy. This series focus the view to the highest level races in the more favorable constituencies (states). These can be the states where the Democratic Party can take successfully the role of the dominant party, despite we be in a difficult year. The swing states and the more red states needs other point less audacious.

          This series find help for convert better the dominant role of the Democratic Party in many states to political power, finding to take the highest number of offices in these states, and beginning by the highest level office, the senate seats and the governor's offices, closing the doors to the republicans.

          I think what if the Democratic Party assures the best results in the more favorable constituencies (states, districts) would be very difficult to have bad overall results. And we can see that in these elections.

          Obviously, looking for win all the highest level offices in the bluest states, this series needs to look to the mid-term to a complete cycle of elections, because this year we have only a group of elections. This series looks not only to this year elections, this is very important for understand many hypothesis.

          This series looks to both sides.

          I think to have the best candidates is a condition what help always winning a race with less human and economic effort, and that help for free resources for other races where the democrats can have weaker candidates or for other races in other constituencies where the democrats will be weaker. Always is good to have the best candidates. Cause of that I wish give to the people the chance of vote for select the three first democrats from every state between lists what are the more open possible for the people can find their bests and can vote free.

          The lists of candidates for the democratic side include the politicians what hold now or in the past the offices with highest precedence and are under 70 years old at the end of this year, with two exceptions, the people with serious scandals and the people what work in the Bush's administrations. And the lists include too the incumbent senators or governors and the politicians what are run this year for the senate or governor (N Abercrombie, J Brown,...). The polls in DailyKos diaries have a limit of 15 options, and I include diaries for a previous selection if they are more. The series give the chance of vote for approximately 450 democrats in all this states.

          This series take the word "democrat" since an open view what include some friendly and active independent politicians.

          This series find the three fist democrats because they are three highest level offices in every state, the two senate seats and the governor's office. The third democrat is a key position for close the doors of the highest level offices to the republicans in the bluest states.

          Looking to the republican side, this series find where can be the highest dangers in these states with the spirit of fight stronger against these dangers. And for see where can be the highest dangers we need to compare the strength of the different politicians despite they be from different states.

          Generic questions in the polls are necessary for can compare the results. The people is voting here for predictions in hypothetical contest what sometimes are becoming real this years and other times are hypothesis for the mid-term what may become not real.

          The structure of this series gives a way for can compare and try to keep the series under a reasonable size what exceed not the limits in the number of characters for a diary in DailyKos but include the maximum number of republicans for leaves the minimum space to new surprises.

          This series check the third democrat from every state against all the republicans included in the series giving a complete map of political strength. While, the series check only the second democrat against the republicans what get over the third democrat and check only the first democrat against the republicans what get over the second democrat. The reason what support this procedure is what it is very difficult what a republican what get under the third democrat get over the second democrat because the second democrat was selected here with the same or higher support than the third democrat.  

          Well, this can be enough. My competence in english language is not the best, but I hope be enough able for make understand to the people the point of this series."

          If you can I would thank you very much. Of course, take your time for it. If you wish some explanation more about some thing, ask me. If you know spanish enough, maybe in spanish too, I'm more fluent in spanish than in english still.

          I'm sorry cause of give you this work. Maybe too much work, but with this the series would improve very much. I assume it.

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