If you are like me, then you waver between optimism and pessimism about the 2010 elections on an almost daily basis. Today is one of those optimistic days.
Dems have gained a seat in the Senate Snapshot since Friday, to reach 51. This is due to across the board gains in Washington, Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. However, as I have said repeatedly, this is merely a Snapshot of where the campaign currently stands, and it not a prediction of future trends.
If I was forced to guess where the campaign ends up, I think Dems actually sweep Washington, Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. The early Dem turnout machine has proven its worth in recent years, and all five of those states have early, in-person voting. Also, as PPP notes, there are good reasons to expect the enthusiasm hap to close, even if only slightly, between now and Election Day. That should be enough to push any campaign within 3% into the Democratic column, as long as those states have early in-person voting.
Fifty-four seats should be enough to achieve meaningful rules reform in the Senate, so Democrats might even be able to govern for the next two years. So, today is one of the good days Right now, I think there is real hope, even if I may not feel that way in a day or two.
Senate Competitive Campaigns Chart
Senate Outcome Odds Chart
While the competitive Campaigns Chart only shows Democrats ahead in 50 seats, the most likely outcome is 51. This is due to the small GOP leads in Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois and Colorado.
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.
--Only campaigns closer than 12.0% are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.
--I am not projecting odds of victory in Alaska, due to the write-in campaign of Lisa Murkowski.
--With few exceptions, all polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.
--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.