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If you are like me, then you waver between optimism and pessimism about the 2010 elections on an almost daily basis. Today is one of those optimistic days.

Dems have gained a seat in the Senate Snapshot since Friday, to reach 51. This is due to across the board gains in Washington, Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. However, as I have said repeatedly, this is merely a Snapshot of where the campaign currently stands, and it not a prediction of future trends.

If I was forced to guess where the campaign ends up, I think Dems actually sweep Washington, Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. The early Dem turnout machine has proven its worth in recent years, and all five of those states have early, in-person voting. Also, as PPP notes, there are good reasons to expect the enthusiasm hap to close, even if only slightly, between now and Election Day. That should be enough to push any campaign within 3% into the Democratic column, as long as those states have early in-person voting.

Fifty-four seats should be enough to achieve meaningful rules reform in the Senate, so Democrats might even be able to govern for the next two years. So, today is one of the good days Right now, I think there is real hope, even if I may not feel that way in a day or two.

Senate Competitive Campaigns Chart


Senate Outcome Odds Chart

While the competitive Campaigns Chart only shows Democrats ahead in 50 seats, the most likely outcome is 51. This is due to the small GOP leads in Nevada, West Virginia, Illinois and Colorado.

Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.

--Only campaigns closer than 12.0% are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.

--I am not projecting odds of victory in Alaska, due to the write-in campaign of Lisa Murkowski.

--With few exceptions, all polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.

--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:48 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  sestack will win over toomey. bank on it. (7+ / 0-)

    why these numbers dont show that? i dont know...

    "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

    by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:50:59 PM PDT

    •  I actually think we're only gonna lose a couple (12+ / 0-)

      Senate seats. People are now starting to pay attention and Dems have kicked campaigning into high gear.

      I'm feeling better and better about our prospects. Just tune out the pundits and repubs and stay focused. We'll get it done.

      "We don't differentiate between 'them' and 'us.' It's just 'us.'" --- President Barack Obama

      by marabout40 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:54:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree on Sestak. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Swordsmith, Matt Z, beltane

      Does the NH margin here include the two newest polls? ARG (47-42) and Ras (51-44). That's a HUGE swing from their last polls.

      And come on, how is there only a 28% chance of Alexi winning in IL right now!? I think every single one of those races except Missouri and Alaska are winnable (will be won!)

      •  i wonder if they call cell-phones ? (0+ / 0-)

        otherwise these polls are, generally, biased to exclude an important demographics...

        "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

        by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:58:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think pollsters factor that effect in... (0+ / 0-)

          Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

          by Jonze on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:58:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  what does that mean? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, CoEcoCe

            what is the formula for determining the number of people who have abandoned their land lines? Are they mostly young, or democrats, or liberal, or suburban, or urban, or coastal, or educated, or poor, or middle class, or etc? It seems like a pretty complicated set of factors to consider. I want to know.

            •  primarily, it's a function of age. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              coffee cup

              and the shifting consumption habits associated with that group.
              and one reason why this demo is important politically, is its proclivity to vote left.

              "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

              by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:13:37 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I believe you (0+ / 0-)

                and I also assume the iPhoners who have cut their land lines lean progressive -- only because they are more tuned in to changing cultural patterns. But I still wonder how they factor that in -- what's the equation they use? It still seems like guess work.

                •  As I understand it (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  coffee cup, CoEcoCe

                  If they expect the electorate to be 20 percent voters under 25, and in random polling they end up with a screen of only ten percent, they just count them double (more or less, I guess technically they count them slightly more than double to make it actually equal 20 percent).

                  If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

                  by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:25:03 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  it's a great example of how a marginal (0+ / 0-)

                    difference in an initial sample (people who actually answer the phone survey) can snow-ball into a massive poll margin of error..  i expect a massive turnout this midterm.

                    "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

                    by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:27:47 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  It's not only ditching land lines (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      CoEcoCe

                      it's caller ID. Most people I know screen their calls, and if they don't recognize the number, they'll just let voice mail pick up. We've been trained to avoid answering for all sorts of reasons. I dunno, I just think relying on the telephone for gathering accurate polling data is getting more and more unreliable -- but then again I'm no statistician.

      •  Is there any recent MO poll? (0+ / 0-)

        I haven't seen one in ages.

        "The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity."---William Butler Yeats.

        by joy sinha on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:59:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (0+ / 0-)

        If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

        by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:05:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  No, No, No!!! (6+ / 0-)

      Didn't you get the memo?  Democrats aren't enthusiastic about voting this year.  It's all downhill for us.  Doom, doom doom!  Get with the program!  Don't think for yourself!  It's over!  It's over!

      (Oh yeah, SNARK!)

      Now, GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!

      •  i wish i had a some evidence for the msm meme, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RoIn, Matt Z

        it feels like another betrayal by the "free-market" media system.
        is this the best we can get ?? news production sucks!
        as much as i am increasingly disgusted by google, i do wish sometimes that they would buy and enhance the NYT.

        "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

        by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:10:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Then explain why in Ohio (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, RoIn, Matt Z, CoEcoCe

        more Democrats have requested early vote ballots and more Democrats have returned them. Also why we have more canvassers and phone bankers, and the Ohio GOP is sending out an SOS to import some.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:12:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  ultimately, it doesnt make sense to have voted (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z

          in 08' and NOT to vote in 2010 .....?!?....
          why would anyone not vote this election ?

          "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

          by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:19:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I know I've said this before, but I'd love for (0+ / 0-)

          you to do a diary on what you see on the ground in Ohio. You always have such great info.

          Also, do you have the link for where the early voting #s are? I thought Ohio reporting the #s by party by country or is that not true?

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:36:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know where they are being reported (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            I assume by county. Our daily paper had the figures last week for the three largest counties in Ohio. I know the party is keeping tabs and I got a breakdown of early ballot requests in my county tonight, keeping in mind that we are the largest and most Democratic county in Ohio. 190,000 requests have been submitted here so far, with 120,000 of those being Democrats, 45,000 being Republicans, the rest independents. I suspect our daily paper's unprecedentedly lavish endorsement of the totally unqualified Republican for county executive is doomed to fail especially since many Republicans are saying they'll support one of the independents.

            De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

            by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:01:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Um (0+ / 0-)

      because it won't happen? Statewide polls, despite what you think, are startlingly accurate when averaged, especially when a race is stable and the polls show similar results over and over again.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:41:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This is counting Lieberman as a democrat (0+ / 0-)

    right?

    I want to live forever. So far, so good.

    by NMDad on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:53:29 PM PDT

  •  Do we want egg on the villagers' faces 11/3? (12+ / 0-)

    Yes we do.

    Please, if you have time to read dKos, you have time to help volunteer.

    If you have time to write a post, you have time to write in to your local newspaper. While the Senate is improving, Democratic Senate candidates benefit from greater scrutiny. However, teabagging congressional canddiates are still slipping under the radar. Help your local news media out.

  •  What happens when you toss Ras? (5+ / 0-)

    Most of us here in IL are confident that Giannoulias will win. I didn't think any poll had him down by that much.

    It is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness - Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Fish in Illinois on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:53:50 PM PDT

  •  Feingold is coming on strong now... there's... (11+ / 0-)

    still time for him to win, IMO. :-)

    "When you want to go forward ... you put it in 'D,' "When you want to go back ... you put it in 'R.' " ... President Obama 8/2.

    by BarackStarObama on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:53:58 PM PDT

  •  And North Dakota, Indiana, and Arkansas are (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drmah

    not on there?  Ughhh....

    "The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason." - Thomas Paine

    by shrike on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:55:41 PM PDT

  •  this election is more important than any (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    theworksanddays

    midterm ever, i mean ever. Seriously, ever ever.

    Aside from a miracle, I don't see it happening.

    President Obama doesn't know how to fight the Republicans, and 85 percent of the Democrats are bought out.

  •  And then Nelson and Lieberman Switch, 51-49 R.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    desmoinesdem, HasdrubalMago

    Just because they can..

    Great Job Harry..

  •  I have no scentific data but (7+ / 0-)

    I see KY as a real fight and really a toss up.  I think we'll be able to haul in IL and WI.

    www.billwhitefortexas.com Liberals, fighting the conservative way since 1776...

    by Final Frame on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:58:20 PM PDT

  •  Not like you---D's still asleep and out - FOXed (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    desmoinesdem, HasdrubalMago

    I am not like you and am very pessimistic because the streets are not full of people screaming to elect MORE Democrats and drive a series of wooden stakes in the hearts of the Zombies of the Right/Corporate/Media powers that have so bamboozled the Administration and the D's around the country to say nothing of the MSM.

    Any scan of the media will show all the stories about election are just about how badly the administration will be beaten and how true the Rush Limbaugh Nutter crowd pledge and promise to trash the Obama Administration is and the glee at showing the Black President is a failure and all the liberals who supported him have been out FOXed.

    The last thing we need is some optimistic prediction---we are so far behind out in Palin land of the real US that it is like the D's think the election is a year away rather than a few months.

    Fear of a total wipe-out of the goals of 2008 is what we need to be seeing on Kos and everywhere---it is not yet too late to rally the troops, but every single stop has to be pulled out on the organ and it needs to be played loud and constantly to overcome the Corporate-Right Wing machine.

    •  Democrats are defending 83 Congressional Seats... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      thematt523

      ...that voted for George W. Bush... a second effing time.

      Waves happen. And when the economy is bad, the wave is bigger.

      Is the House Gone? Almost certainly. Will we lose 41 seats or 61 seats? that remains to be determined, and there is a huge difference.

      What people need to understand is that a Republican Victory in 2010 has no more meaning than the Democrats Victory in 2008. The Country is where it has always been. And we will bounce back.

      So please turn off FAUX News.

      •  I refuse to roll over and play dead (0+ / 0-)

        My daughter has a very sweet cat that when faced with any dog or larger cat rolls over and takes the full submissive position.  I love the cat, but it is not a model for the D's.

        Maybe because I live in one of the most R states in the nation, but we fight and scrape for every vote and with some successes.  

        FOX and fiends ---MConville, Boehner, Rove, Limbaugh, have beat us to a pulp over the last 18 months and the MSM are like my dear sweet cat----as are most R's.

        The country is not where it has been---it is not where it was January 20 when millions of us stood on the Mall having traveled far to be part of a Change.  

        We need to kick all the Fox and Fiends dogs and big cats for the next several weeks and not assume we are to be submissive.

      •  Your dreary, baseless pessimism (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, zubalove, Matt Z

        is not helpful. Virtually no observer believes " the House is gone." It probably isn't. This fatalistic attitude that we are helpless slaves of fate is a self-fulfilling prophecy because when you quit, yes, you lose. And don't be so sure we would recover. We were barely able to recover after 2008 and if we're THIS hard hit by this implacable "wave" about which we can do nothing a mere two years later, at a time when unlimited corporate money has poured into the system and districts are being redrawn, then no, we probably won't bounce back.

        But I think your pessimism is unwarranted.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:24:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Optimism (0+ / 0-)

          Is not helpful either.  

          Whether I post on this board right now "The Democrats are going to win HUGE!!!!!" or if I post "The Republicans are going to kick ass", it will have absolutely no, zero, effect on the election.  I wish I had that power, but I don't.

          As for the rest- plenty of observers believe the House is gone.

          What will be interesting to see is how the DCCC spends it's money in the next few weeks, do they fight to try and keep a majority, or pull back and spend the money on the guys who they need just to avoid a 60 seat loss.

          If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

          by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:35:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If we take your first statement (0+ / 0-)

            The basis of your opinion is because of the media, which hasn't been that kind to Democrats for the past year regardless what they've been able to do or not do.  So if you'd like to run with that narrative then go for it.  I'll be here in TX celebrating over getting a new Governor.

            www.billwhitefortexas.com Liberals, fighting the conservative way since 1776...

            by Final Frame on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:51:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not sure what you mean by my "first statement" (0+ / 0-)

              The basis of my opinion is lots and lots of polls.  I can read and add and subtract all by myself.

              My main point, though, was that whatever my opinion is, and whatever I share here, is going to have absolutely no effect on the election.

              If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

              by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:11:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  OPtimism is helpful and motivating (0+ / 0-)

            Democrats are hangdogs whose frequent response to tough races is to quit.

            The DCCC is making some interesting choices in Ohio. They have pulled back in Oh-13 (Betty Sutton) just as her opponent has self-destructed and pulled all his TV ads to try to weather the huge scandal that just clobbered him.  I think they've assessed (I believe correctly) that she is now safe.

            They also pulled out of Oh-01 (Steve Dreihaus) in the wake of the pullout of the NRCC. This was expected to be the Democrats' one sure loss in Ohio.  Recently, it's been virtually tied.

            De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

            by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:52:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ok. (0+ / 0-)

              First off, I repeat my first point- no one is going to quit because of anything I write.

              Ohio 13 is a district that Sutton won by 30 points in 2008, and by 22 points in 2006.  Her predecessor also won by similar margins.  This is a district that should have been virtually impossible to lose under any circumstances, it's a bad sign that the national party ever felt they had to spend money their.

              Ohio 1- where do you get it being virtually tied?  I can't find any poll that didn't favor Chabot, most by double digit leads.  I think you are misconstruing the pull out by the national parties, I think they believe it is over.

              If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

              by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:09:55 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Please see my uphtread pleading for GOTV (0+ / 0-)

          I am trying to express what I conclde to be the most realistic tone, supported by mainstream online pollsters (e.g., Nate Silver predicting -47 seats).  

          As I noted, there is still a wide band of uncertainty in House projections that GOTV could easily move. So please volunteer and GOTV. I am working tirelessly on my neighboring House district.

    •  No reason to vote Democratic is the problem. (0+ / 0-)

      A diary on DKOS made the same observation a while ago.

      The Democrats are not running FOR anything.

      Health care? No they claim the passed "landmark legislation".  A bogus claim as most Americans know. Had the Democrats said what they passed was crippled and nearly useless due to crazy Senate DC rules and GOP saboteurs and to elect Democrats to kill filibseter so they care REALLY reform health care, THAT would be a campaign with a message and vision.

      It applies to every issue, Wall St reform (or the lack of it), mortgage reliefe (there is none despite massive fraud), climate change (never happened).

      Instead of promising to DO SOMETHING if elected, Democrats simply say GOP is terrible. To voters who see their vote in 2008 FOR CHANGE wasted, aren't buying it.

      The trend in Chris Bowers summaries has been steadily rising GOP. With four weeks to go, his final summary of the polling will likely show GOP House and Senate.

  •  Rule changes (3+ / 0-)

    I think you are extremely optimistic there.  While a result of 54 Democratic Senators isn't an outrageous prediction at all, you have to remember that includes Lieberman, Nelson, Manchin, and various less than Progressive Dems.  So, for that reason alone, I have a hard time seeing the kind of rule changes you are talking about.

    Add in the fact that the Senate terrain in 2012 is not friendly to the Democrats, why would they be looking to undermine the power of individual Senators, particularly those in the minority?

    Especially given the strong likelihood that the House is going to be in Republican hands- what's the point of going through the pain of radically changing the rules to pass legislation over the objection of the minority, when you are going to have to deal with the Republican leaders in the House, who will be much, much more difficult to negotiate with anyway.

    If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

    by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:59:50 PM PDT

    •  rule change is bad long term strategy (0+ / 0-)

      unless there's a massive change in urban/rural voting patterns or small state demographics, i would not expect dems to hold the senate very often over the coming decades.

      the sad fact is the reason the GOP could filibuster with impunity is because dems never mounted any sustained, coordinated, and competent effort to make them pay a political price for it, either issue by issue or in general. and also because dems failed to cry foul on the media when they started pretending like the 60 vote threshold was just business as usual.

      Re-elect Obama's Agenda 2010

      by jethropalerobber on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:45:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My concern is the looney Buck from CO (0+ / 0-)

    Angle and O'Donnell are stealing all the crazy oxygen in the room. Buck is a misogynist Teabagging flat taxer.

    (-9.00,-7.59) non illegitimi carborundum. We will go on forever because we are the people-John Steinbeck

    by Irish Patti on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:01:33 PM PDT

  •  Ohio has dropped off (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, jethropalerobber, Matt Z, flhiii88

    Arrrrrggggggggh. It didn't have to be that way. Damn damn damn damn.

    De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

    by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:02:30 PM PDT

    •  anastasia, (0+ / 0-)

      I agree, but honestly I don't think any Democratic nominee this year was going to win in Ohio.

      •  Completely disagree (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, LordMike, Matt Z, flhiii88

        Our statewides are looking stronger and stronger. We have the biggest field team and the largest GOTV effort in the country.  We're leading in early ballot requests and early returns. The tide is rolling with us. Why should this race have been the ONE exception? Are you saying that Portman is too attractive, too strong for ANY Democrat to beat? I totally disagree. I think a Democrat that actually started campaigning right after the primary could have pulled it out Unfortunately, we did not have that Democrat.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:07:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bocceri, Space, Kilroy, Dreihaus all down in the (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z

          polls and possibly Wilson too. Ohio and Pennsylvania are going to be disasters.

          •  Space and Wilson are as good as reelected (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, LordMike

            The NRCC is not in either district and the extremely weak Republican candidates are being outspent 5-1, 6-1. No reality-based observer believes either of our Blue Dogs will lose. Space just snagged another plum, the endorsement of the VFW. He's golden; he's going back to D.C.

            Boccieri and Kilroy have tough races, but they could win. (I'm most optimistic about Kilroy, since the district is trending blue and Stivers is a BANK lobbyist). Dreihaus was thought to be our big loss, but he has been keeping the race close. And the potential defeat of Sutton is no longer on the map; the Republicans have bailed on the district after Ganley's sexual assault lawsuit surface last week.

            I don't know what state you're in, but your knowledge of Ohio is nil if you think Wilson and Space are going to lose, just because you saw some figures somewhere about the Republican tilt of their districts. They're both safe.

            De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

            by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:31:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Space is not down in the polls... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, anastasia p

            ...and if Boccieri is doing so poorly, someone better tell the DCCC, 'cos their ads are up all over the place.  Wilson will be just fine... Stop getting all freaked out over GOP polls.  

            DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
            LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

            by LordMike on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:32:18 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Really! (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              Space and Wilson are both so safe the GOP isn't even trying in those districts. Sheesh. Next thing some of those pessimists will be claiming we'll lose Oh-09, even though it's extremely Democratic and the Republican is a Nazi re-enacter who won't stop praising their brilliance by way of explanation. We've had some major GOP self-destructs, what with that in Oh-09, and Tom Ganley, the wealthy, self-funding car dealer in Oh-13 who's just been accused of sexual assault and harassment by a teabagging former supporter. Hopefully this will bleed over and depress some REPUBLICAN enthusiasm.

              De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

              by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:47:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Damn, I wish I was here for the primary. At (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, LordMike, anastasia p

          least strickland's been running a great campaign.  He has some great ads touting his NRA endorsement here in Greene County.  I can honestly count the number of Kasich yard signs I've seen on one hand.

          It is magnificent, but it is not war, it is madness. Pierre Bosquet on the charge of the Light Brigade

          by flhiii88 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:10:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I've seen some Kasich signs (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, flhiii88

            along I-71. I've even seen a couple here in Cleveland Heights. Wildly outnumbered by Strickland-Brown signs for sure. Strickland IS running a great, tireless campaign and his running mate Yvette McGee Brown is his secret weapon. If every voter could meet her, there's no chance we'd lose!

            De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

            by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:33:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I never thought he had it in him.... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            flhiii88

            ...but, he is doing much better than I thought!

            DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
            LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

            by LordMike on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:33:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  He's doing very well (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              He's everywhere. And he's got some dynamos on the downticket, including his running mate, Maryellen O'Shaughnessy who is running for Secretary of State, and David Pepper who is running for auditor. Those are the apportionment seats. Pepper has an excellent shot against teabagging big spender Dave Yost.. The governor has a strong chance of re-election. Maryellen's race is tougher but she could pull it out.

              De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

              by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:44:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  No, of course you know more about Ohio (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          than I do...but it seems like a state where all the dominos were lined up against the Democrats this year.

          I so hope you're right and some of those dominos fall the other way.

          •  Not at all (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, JoeW

            There's nothing particularly lined up against Democrats here. Our economy has been in the toilet for almost 20 years, thanks mainly to 16 straight years of nearly total Republican rule. People here know this; very few are blaming Strickland according to polls. Meanwhile, in the last few years we're finally showing some glimmers of life: new job in biotech and manufacturing, leading the country in green energy initiatives, on the verge of putting in the largest freshwater wind farm in the country. These are all things John Kasich would kill if he gets elected, along with the public schools, most state services, the passenger rail corridor and accountability. (He's openly said he'll privatize the very effective Department of Development, put corporate CEOs in charge and pay them bonuses with our money that we won't be allowed to know about).

            So there isn't a special problem for Democrats here, except that they took over when the real ecnomic storm hit. Strickland has been a capable and effective governor, although many Democrats have been sour about him because of cuts to programs – which were due to tumbling revenue collection. I think they're starting to realize that if Kasich gets elected and eliminates the state income tax, the program cuts will be lethal to much of what they love.

            De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

            by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:39:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Poor Chris.... (4+ / 0-)

    He posts a pessimistic diary a few days ago, and half the people here (me included) lambaste him for ruining our GOTV enthusiasm. Three days later he posts a more optimistic take (based on new polls) and the other half accuse him of being a pollyanna.

    It's a tough gig, Chris. Having fun yet?

  •  Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Kentucky (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Matt Z, flhiii88

    We can come back in those states.  

    We should win:

    WA, NV, WV, IL, CO, CA, CT, DE

    How many seats does that give us?

    Where are we losing a seat?  AR and where else?

    Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

    by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:05:48 PM PDT

    •  The only other definite losses are ND and IN (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, GoogleBonhoeffer

      It is magnificent, but it is not war, it is madness. Pierre Bosquet on the charge of the Light Brigade

      by flhiii88 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:08:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks. Is 57 worst case scenario? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z, flhiii88

        If we consider AR, ND and IN definite losses and NH a gain?

        Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

        by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:09:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Edit: best case scenario (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z

          Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

          by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:10:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Umm (0+ / 0-)

          I think 57 is a best case scenario, if you are rooting for the Democrats.

          If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

          by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:10:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  57 /58 may be best case....KY may be a pick up (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z, GoogleBonhoeffer

          NH is still iffy.

          "The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity."---William Butler Yeats.

          by joy sinha on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:10:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  58. That's right! (0+ / 0-)

            58 is best case scenario if KY and NH are pick ups and only AR, IN and ND are losses.

            Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

            by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:13:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  57/58 probably too optimistic (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Matt Z

            I just took a look at Nate's odds- I gave the Democratic candidates an additional 30% chance of the win in each race, still comes out with 54 seats.  

            And, like I said, that's giving an extra 30%.

            If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

            by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:13:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  As we said 57/58 is the best case scenario. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Matt Z, GoogleBonhoeffer, Final Frame

              These are all winnable, but democrats have to run a perfect campaign, GOP needs to implode (quite possible as all seems to be nuts), and GOTV.

              "The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity."---William Butler Yeats.

              by joy sinha on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:19:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Give 'em 40% (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Matt Z

              If you give every single Democratic candidate an additional 40% chance (and, therefore, deduct 40% from the Republicans)- the Republicans still gain two, and that's counting Florida as a Republican loss, presumably to Crist.

              In other words- if the Democrats come out of this election with 57 Senators, Nate probably loses that job over at the NY Times.

              If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

              by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:20:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Path to 58 seats (0+ / 0-)

                We have to hold everywhere except AR, ND and IN while we have to pick up just 2 seats, NH and KY.

                Where else do you think we're definitely going to lose?

                Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

                by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:30:32 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Like I said (0+ / 0-)

                  I'm using Nate's numbers.

                  He has the following Republican pickups as over a 90% certainty:

                  ND, Ar, Ind, PA, and Wisconsin

                  He has the Democratic pickups of being over a 10% certainty:

                  Florida (Crist, so that may not even be a pickup), Kentucky, and NH.

                  Now, as Nate would be sure to point out, if you have 10 races where the Democratic candidate's chances are only 10%, you would expect that they will win one of them, so a 90% threshhold doesn't mean an automatic loss by any means.

                  But, if the Senate ends up at 58 seats- his whole methodology looks like crap.

                  If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

                  by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:40:18 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  4 goofs by Nate (0+ / 0-)

                    It comes down to 4 goofs.

                    Nate could be wrong about PA, WI, KY and NH.

                    There's still 3 weeks to adjust his model as well.

                    Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

                    by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:49:32 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Four is a lot (0+ / 0-)

                      Especially "goofs" (not really the correct word, it's not like he's guaranteeing those results) of that magnitude.

                      Although, to be fair, he does allow for the possibility of the Democrats ending up with 57 seats, he just puts it at roughly 2%.

                      As for adjusting his model- remember, Nate is actually projecting the winner in November, not saying who would win right now.  And, given the fact that there has been almost no change in his model over the last several weeks, it's hard to imagine, barring a huge October surprise, that it's going to happen now.

                      If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

                      by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:01:54 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Oh (0+ / 0-)

                  and to answer your question about my belief (for what it is worth)-

                  I'd say PA is lost.  It's been months since there was a poll that had Toomey better than within 3 points.

                  I'm not as convinced about Wisconsin, if only because the trend there has been more recent, and I am not as convinced about the quality of the Republican to pull off the win.  Still, it doesn't look good.

                  I also think Nevada is probably lost, although I know that is going against a lot of headwind in a state that, at least in terms of the polls is a toss up.  My thinking there is, if the President of the Senate cannot crack 50 on any poll, ever, then in the end he is going to lose.  The undecideds clearly know who he is and don't want to vote for him; if everything they have seen of Angle hasn't convinced them yet that she isn't a viable alternative, then whatever will?

                  But that's just me.

                  If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

                  by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:55:26 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  yeah and IN pisses me off (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        flhiii88

        there is no real reason for ellsworth to be beaten by coats. coats is the least attractive candidate you could hope for. the point spread entirely is a vote against obama.

        the debate was last night. nobody, nobody, claims coats won.

  •  Senator Leahy, here in Vermont.... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, itskevin, Matt Z, Greasy Grant

    ...has run a couple of soft ads, one strongly in favor of fall foliage. And he's giving bits & pieces of his war chest to the Party. Expect to see him in DC, again.

    "So, am I right or what?"

    by itzik shpitzik on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:06:03 PM PDT

  •  Damn, I live in AZ (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, jethropalerobber, Matt Z, jlms qkw
    All I own is optimism.  

    The reason we hold truth in such respect is because we have so little opportunity to get familiar with it. --Mark Twain

    by Desert Rose on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:06:18 PM PDT

  •  By taking the simple mean, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    aren't you overweighting pollsters that "flood the zone"?

    For instance, Washington state, where Elway showed a +13 result for Murray today. Seems odd that she'd be showing as just +0.9 in your results, except for the fact that Raz and Fox/Raz have a gazillion polls of the race.

    Just sayin'... ;-)

  •  I'm hoping we have enough time (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Matt Z, jlms qkw

    to do even better than the snapshot predicts.  I've been getting a lot of calls from the Dems, Move On and OFA (which is funny because I'm making calls too).  Way to work on GOTV Dems!

    We've got serious work to do. Health care and civil rights for all, please!

    by the dogs sockpuppet on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:11:27 PM PDT

  •  vuvuzella at mine rescue event ?? (0+ / 0-)

    "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

    by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:17:23 PM PDT

  •  Dems sweep Illinois? (0+ / 0-)

    Can I have a toke of what you're smoking?

    I have no idea what you are looking at that the rest of the world of punditry isn't, but the Ill Senate race is polling a tie right now.. but.. and this is a big but.. Quinn in the Governor's race is trailing very badly.  Illinoisans want to put a Repub back in the governor's seat.. and that means a big turnout downstate.. and that does not bode well for Alexi G.

    Yes.. there still is a chance Chicago Dems and collar county Dems night come to the polls in force, but we have a very disgruntled electorate in those areas.. for many reasons, not the least of which is the Dem party's handling of the recent flooding and grants..

    I won't predict a winner.. But, I sure as hell wouldn't call Illinois a sweep or even likely Dem.

    I'd give a slight advantage to Kirk, if I was forced to.

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - G. Marx

    by Skeptical Bastard on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:25:12 PM PDT

    •  If it was a standard issue Republican (0+ / 0-)

      in Brady I would agree with you.  But I think there are too many Republicans in the suburbs that are not socially conservative that will have a hard time voting for Brady. Not that they will vote for Quinn but I'm thinking they may not vote.

      •  There are NO social issues this election.. (0+ / 0-)

        Nada.. zip.. zilch. No one cares what Brady's social positions are.  As a governor of a state, he has absolutely no power regarding abortion laws, etc.  His stand on those issues is immaterial.

        As Bill Clinton said:  "It's the economy, stupid."

        That is the only issue driving this election. And, the people of Illinois are tired of the Dems running the state into the ground.  Quinn is ineffectual and has no plan except higher taxes.. that goes over REAL big in an election year.

        "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - G. Marx

        by Skeptical Bastard on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:41:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  ugghh. meant to say "who" not "that" #&#&# n/t (0+ / 0-)
  •  What about Congress? (0+ / 0-)

    Won't mean anything if GOP gains Congress.

  •  Why the focus on early voting (0+ / 0-)

    Voters of both parties can vote early.

  •  It's the economy stupid (0+ / 0-)

    I don't see any economic figures that are that great to change people's minds, there is no October surprise on the economy, and there are only 3 weeks to go before November 2. One in 10 Americans are out of work, that means most individuals know of someone in their family or a friend out of work. The only reason the stock market is doing better is that Wall Street has already hedged its bets that the Democratic party will be hit by losses.

    I am Democratic, but a realist. It is not looking good.

  •  Point of clarification (0+ / 0-)

    There is no early in-person voting in WA.  Absentee voting is the rule in 38 of 39 counties.  So there is actually very little in-person voting at all.  

    The party of No is well on their way to becoming the party of nobody. Alan Grayson

    by Leftleaner on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 09:25:39 PM PDT

    •  This is actually noted (0+ / 0-)

      in the chart in your link.  Read your charts more carefully,

      The party of No is well on their way to becoming the party of nobody. Alan Grayson

      by Leftleaner on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 10:01:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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