Nate's blog: 538

New projection: 52.1 D, 47.9R, and 0.1 Charlie Crist's or Lisa Murkowski's.

Last week the GOP had a 24% chance of takeover.

The good news:

NV-Sen: Two of three polls this week show Reid with a lead. Nate's model still gives Angle a slight advantage, though.

WV-Sen: Manchin gaining on Raese, and non-Ras polls done for the first time (CNN) which showed a tie.

WA-Sen: Polling all over the place, but two polls show Murray with a solid lead so she's up to 78% from 71%.

IL-Sen: A nail biter, but Giannoulias is now given a 53% chance of victory.

The bad news: WI-Sen. Non partisan polls show Ron Johnson with a 8 point lead, and that translates into a 94% chance of victory.

The tight races (single-digit margins per Nate) with appropriate ActBlue links:

PA: Toomey + 7 over Sestak

WI: Johnson +7 over Feingold

CO: Buck + 2 over Bennet

NV: Angle + 1 over Reid

IL: Giannoulias+ 0.3 over Kirk

WV: Manchin+ 1 over Raese

WA: Murray+ 4 over Rossi

KY: Paul + 6 over Conway

CA: Boxer+ 5 over Fiorina

NH: Ayotte + 7 over Hodes

MO: Blunt + 9 over Carnahan

That's a total of 11 tight races. And as I diariedyesterday, the possible cell-phone effect may be on the order of 4 to 6 percent - which puts ALL of those races into toss up category.

You know what to do, Kossacks. GOTV. They will outspend us, thanks to Corporations Untied and the extremely activist Roberts court, but don't let them outwork us.

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