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Nate's blog: 538

New projection: 52.1 D, 47.9R, and 0.1 Charlie Crist's or Lisa Murkowski's.

Last week the GOP had a 24% chance of takeover.

The good news:
NV-Sen: Two of three polls this week show Reid with a lead. Nate's model still gives Angle a slight advantage, though.
WV-Sen: Manchin gaining on Raese, and non-Ras polls done for the first time (CNN) which showed a tie.
WA-Sen: Polling all over the place, but two polls show Murray with a solid lead so she's up to 78% from 71%.
IL-Sen: A nail biter, but Giannoulias is now given a 53% chance of victory.

The bad news: WI-Sen. Non partisan polls show Ron Johnson with a 8 point lead, and that translates into a 94% chance of victory.

The tight races (single-digit margins per Nate) with appropriate ActBlue links:
PA: Toomey + 7 over Sestak
WI: Johnson +7 over Feingold
CO: Buck + 2 over Bennet
NV: Angle + 1 over Reid
IL: Giannoulias+ 0.3 over Kirk
WV: Manchin+ 1 over Raese
WA: Murray+ 4 over Rossi
KY: Paul + 6 over Conway
CA: Boxer+ 5 over Fiorina
NH: Ayotte + 7 over Hodes
MO: Blunt + 9 over Carnahan

That's a total of 11 tight races. And as I diariedyesterday, the possible cell-phone effect may be on the order of 4 to 6 percent - which puts ALL of those races into toss up category.

You know what to do, Kossacks. GOTV. They will outspend us, thanks to Corporations Untied and the extremely activist Roberts court, but don't let them outwork us.

Originally posted to aardvark droppings on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 06:47 AM PDT.

Poll

Which close-race Senator deserves our love and support the most?

45%669 votes
2%42 votes
11%163 votes
5%87 votes
4%60 votes
3%47 votes
1%21 votes
0%8 votes
0%10 votes
0%8 votes
1%19 votes
17%255 votes
2%32 votes
1%28 votes
1%15 votes

| 1464 votes | Vote | Results

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