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Thursday brings a polling day with something for everyone. There are polls within this Wrap that have to make the Republicans on the verge of a tsunami win. But no sooner did GOPers ready the champagne corks than another poll came in which seemed to indicate that there might be at least a breeze of sorts developing at the back of key Democratic candidates.

In all, a total of 40 polls grace the Wrap today. And if you can find a clean trend in them, then you are more gifted at analysis than I am. When challenger internal polls put Ken Calvert (R-CA 44) and Peter DeFazio (D-OR 04) in competitive races, it is fair to say that neither side will corner the market on premature celebration. Also, Alaska is becoming close at the Senate level, while a sliver of daylight may be developing for a key vulnerable Democratic Governor.

All this (and more!) in the Thursday edition of the Wrap...


THE ANALYSIS: There are a couple of caveats to throw around with this batch of Senate polling. The Mason-Dixon poll out of Nevada has an interesting twist--it does not list the full ballot. In a Twitter post earlier today, Nevada political genius Jon Ralston strongly implied that this was not an accident (the Review-Journal, which sponsored the poll, is fiercely pro-Angle). Another caveat on the SUSA poll in Washington: bear in mind that SUSA always seems to lean R in the Evergreen State, and this three-point margin is actually an improvement over the previous poll by the crew there. In other polling news, the CfG (and Ras...more on them later) confirm our own polling in Alaska--it is a legit three-way race. Quinnipiac seems to be sorting out the kinks in their LV model, as the Linda McMahon "boomlet" is gone. In Illinois and Louisiana, the campaigns try to do a little narrative shaping--whether it means one candidate is still in the lead (Giannoulias) or one candidate is still viable (Melancon). Two public firms poll Oklahoma and Kansas, and find absolutely nothing surprising.


THE ANALYSIS: It is, in no small part, internal poll-fest on this Thursday, as only eight of the 19 House polls today are from nonpartisan sources. Of those, Democrats have to be heartened by the lead for Rick Boucher in reddish VA-09, and even have to be a little relieved to see longtime Pennsylvania Rep. Paul Kanjorski closing back in on Republican Lou Barletta, who has led easily throughout the cycle according to most polls. A couple of those partisan polls, meanwhile, appear to be a bit of a stretch. I'll bet any GOPer willing to lay me eight points on the Texas 27th, for example, but I can't imagine I'll get any takers. Meanwhile, while I'd like to believe in the vulnerability of John Boehner (and I think Justin Coussoule is as good a Democratic candidate as we've seen there), my spidey-sense immediately goes off when a poll shows HALF of the elecorate undecided with less than twenty days to go in the election. Forget whether leaners were pushed or not, were the candidate's names even provided?!


THE ANALYSIS: Deval Patrick might be getting a little breathing room, if the new numbers from Suffolk University are to be believed. Tim Cahill's shot across the bow of Charlie Baker (accusing Baker and the GOP of sabotaging his campaign) seems to be dinging the GOPer somewhat. Other good news: a poll for the Florida Education Association gives Alex Sink a six-point edge, and Rory Reid is back within double digits. The bad news: new public polling in Hawaii confirms a tossup there, and Critical Insights show seven points of movement in the GOP's direction in the past few weeks.

A half dozen polls emanate from the House of Ras today, and only one of them deviates from the traditional Ras script. That is in Alaska, where they mimic our poll from PPP this week showing a legitimate three-way race where Democrat Scott McAdams is very much within the sight of the leaders. Aside from that, however, it is Ras being Ras. Patrick Toomey up double digits? Yeah, that counteracts the narrative developing in the Keystone State, doesn't it?

AK-Sen: Joe Miller (R) 35%, Lisa Murkowski (WI) 34%, Scott McAdams (D) 27%
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%
HI-Gov: Neal Abercrombie (D) 49%, Duke Aiona (R) 47%
IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 46%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 40%, Others 6%
NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 55%, Rory Reid (D) 40%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 49%, Joe Sestak (D) 39%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 07:50 PM PDT.

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