Public opinion polling has been all over the place in this election cycle with even noted number cruncher Nate Silver somewhat hedging his bets and unsure as to how much unpredictability there is in Congressional races this year.
The big unknown factor, of course, is unlimited corporate spending by shadowy groups, some of which is probably from illegal foreign sources
|
Mike Luckovich, Comics.com (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
|
|
Now comes this poll released today by Public Policy Polling about the United States Senate race in Missouri which pits Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan against Republican Roy Blunt. Blunt still leads 46%-41% but some voters are moving in Carnahan's direction
As is happening across the country Democratic voters are getting more interested in this year's election as the big day comes closer. In August only 33% of those describing themselves as likely to vote in November were Democrats, while 38% were Republicans. Now the likely voter pool is composed of 36% Democrats and 35% Republicans. While Republicans have been extremely excited about voting all year, many Democrats are just now starting to tune into the election. This is causing many races across the country, including this one, to tighten down the stretch.
:: ::
The poll showed the following results in the Missouri Senate race which many pundits had written off as a GOP hold
Roy Blunt's support from Democrats has decreased since August, while Robin Carnahan's support from Republicans has seen a slight increase. When PPP last looked at this race there was a large gap in the two candidates' crossover support, with Blunt getting 11% of Democrats while Carnahan had only 4% Republican support. Now Blunt is getting just 8% of Democrats with Carnahan up to 6% of Republicans, essentially erasing the gap in party unity that is causing many Democratic candidates across the country trouble. Blunt continues to lead overall thanks to a 46-31 advantage with independents.
Some pundits have written off this race as an opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat but Carnahan is within the margin of error and picking up support and if her party's base continues to awaken in the final 15 days before the election this race could provide a surprise.
(The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year -- 11-6-08 WSJ
:: ::
In terms of outside spending, Republican groups have outspent their Democratic counterparts by 9:1 over the past several weeks. To counter this overwhelming advantage, Democrats will have to improve upon their ground game, i.e., its Get Out the Vote (GOTV) efforts in the remaining two weeks.
The Nation magazine had this editorial about the pernicious effect of dirty money on our democracy
In order to form a more perfect takeover by David Fitzsimmons, Arizona Star, Buy this cartoon
:: ::
Democracy for Sale
On October 6, amid the tidal wave of corporate cash flooding the 2010 campaigns -- which could attach a $5 billion price tag to the most expensive midterm election in history -- Bill Moyers told Common Cause that money in politics is "the dagger directed at the heart of democracy." He had just warned that "the activist reactionary majority on the Supreme Court...has opened the floodgates for oligarchs and plutocrats to secretly buy our elections and consolidate their hold on the corporate state."
What is happening this fall is not just about parties and candidates or television attack ads or a media fantasy of "the grassroots Tea Party movement." We are witnessing an assault on democracy by multinational corporations that, freed by the Citizens United ruling, are out to get the best government money can buy. Who's buying? Billionaire businessmen with a stake in energy, finance and telecommunications policy debates -- like Trevor Rees-Jones, Robert Rowling and Jerry Perenchio -- are writing checks for as much as $1 million each to Karl Rove's American Crossroads project. What's more, Crossroads GPS, an allied group that's pouring tens of millions into Congressional races, is organized under tax laws that allow Rove to hide the names of donors. But we do know the targets: by early October, the group had spent $14 million on ads attacking senators Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington, as well as a handful of other Democrats in races that could decide which party controls the Senate.
:: ::
The fate of the country is in your hands. Go help your state or local candidates. Make phone calls, knock on doors, write letters to the editor, and talk widely (and persuasively) with family members, friends, acquaintances, and coworkers.
Don't let outside groups corrupt the process and steal this election.