Please go give 538 some love. Click on the ads, click around the site, and basically send some advertiser coin the direction of our own Poblano and the NYT.
Last update was the 14th so this represents 5 days of polling.
| Dem | Rep | Other | %chance GOP takeover |
---|
Oct. 19 | 51.9 | 48.1 | 0.1 | 17 |
Oct. 14 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 0.1 | 18 |
See
my diary of the 14th for Act Blue links.
The closest states:
State | Democrat | Republican | D-R poll | D-R poll on 14th | Nate's % chance for D victory |
---|
WI | Feingold | Johnson | -7 | -7 | 6 |
PA | Sestak | Toomey | -8 | -8 | 6 |
CO | Bennet | Buck | -2 | -2 | 34 |
NV | Reid | Angle | -1 | -1 | 38 |
IL | Giannolias | Kirk | -0 | +0 | 46 |
WV | Manchin | Raese | +1 | +1 | 62 |
CA | Boxer | Fiorina | +4 | +5 | 82 |
WA | Murray | Rossi | +4 | +4 | 84 |
KY | Conway | Raul | -7 | -6 | 11 |
NH | Hodes | Ayotte | -8 | -7 | 8 |
AK | McAdams | Miller | +12 | ? | ? |
In Alaska, there is a 5% chance that Miller does not win (based on polls taken before he started hiding in bathrooms while his goons roughed up reporters), but the odds have to go more to Murkowski than McAdams, since Lisa is precisely in the middle: 6 points behind Miller, 6 points ahead of McAdams.
Good news: WV Manchin goes to 62% from 57. WA Murray goes up to 84% from 78%. CO: Bennet now close to a tossup.
Bad news: Failorina tightened the gap a little with Boxer, and obtuse Angle improved a little.
No news (which is not good news): KY, PA.