Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines)
Jan Brewer (R) 52
Terry Goddard (D) 44
It's a single-digit race, contra what Rasmussen's been peddling for months, but these are still tough numbers. Both Brewer and Goddard get a similar percentage of their party vote, while Brewer wins independents by a single vote -- 46-45. Moderates choose the Democrat by a solid 64-33 margin, problem is, conservatives are 43 percent of the electorate (compared to 16 percent liberals).
Note, McCain won the state 53-45 in 2008. This sample is 54 percent McCain voters, 40 percent Obama voters -- in other words, there is a six-point intensity gap. Erase that, and we have a tied race.
37 percent of Latinos say they're voting for Brewer. Now, that subsample has an astronomical margin of error, so it could be overstating Republican support, but note that Arizona Latinos have historically given a consistent 40 percent of their vote to Republicans. Indeed, that's exactly the percentage of Latinos that say they're voting McCain in the Senate race (which is led by the incumbent 56-38).
We did a preview 2012 matchup between Republican Sen. Jon Kyl and Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, and Kyl came ahead 53-39. We can consider that the floor. The 2012 Senate map is brutal for Dems, and Arizona is one of the few GOP-held seats that could be competitive if the political climate improves for Dems. Also in 2012, Obama loses the state 57-38 against generic Republican. Those numbers track the president's approval ratings closely -- 36/58.