It is inevitable, in the closing days of the electoral cycle, to see polling go from sporadic, to steady, to overwhelming.
It looks like we just passed that final signpost. Welcome to poll-a-geddon. A new record (and on a Monday, no less!) of 60 polls await us to kick off the penultimate Monday of Election 2010.
On balance, this is a decent set of data for the Democrats. Some House races thought to be gone look competitive (and some races that looked competitive are less so) according to today's poll. In addition to the dozens of polls we do have, PPP is teasing three more polls (with decidedly mixed results for the Democrats).
All that (and one whole hell of a lot more!) in the Monday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
- California Senate (GQR/American Viewpoint):
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 50%, Carly Fiorina (R) 42%
- Colorado Senate (SurveyUSA):
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 47%, Ken Buck (R) 47%, Others 1%
- Colorado Senate (PPP):
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 47%, Ken Buck (R) 47%
- Florida Senate (Ipsos):
Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 26%, Kendrick Meek (D) 20%
- Florida Senate (Zogby):
Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%
- Georgia Senate (SurveyUSA):
Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) 58%, Michael Thurmond (D) 34%, Others 5%
- Illinois Senate (Chicago Tribune):
Mark Kirk (R) 44%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Others 9%
- Illinois Senate (Anzalone-Liszt--D):
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38%, Mark Kirk (R) 36%, Others 11%
- Indiana Senate (EPIC-MRA):
Dan Coats (R) 53%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 35%
- Louisiana Senate (Magellan--R):
Sen. David Vitter (R) 52%, Charlie Melancon (D) 35%, Others 3%
- Ohio Senate (Ohio Newspapers Poll):
Rob Portman (R) 58%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%
- Ohio Senate (Wilson Research--R):
Rob Portman (R) 49%, Lee Fisher (D) 38%
- Pennsylvania Senate (Muhlenberg College):
Patrick Toomey (R) 47%, Joe Sestak (D) 42%
- West Virginia Senate (PPP):
Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 44%
THE ANALYSIS: This does not include two PPP polls that have been tweeted extensively throughout the weekend. If one reads the Tom Jensen tea leaves, it would seem that California will look really good for Barbara Boxer, but Kentucky might be less enjoyable for Jack Conway (the tweets on KY-Sen have centered on outrage PPP picked up on the "Aqua Buddha" ad). As for the polls in front of us, PPP sees the same thing everyone except Rasmussen has seen: some daylight developing between Joe Manchin and John Raese in the Mountaineer State. Meanwhile, Joe Sestak's coin flip in Pennsylvania seemed to have been a bit ephemeral, as Pat Toomey has moved back ahead in the Muhlenberg tracker. The best news for Democrats in this set of data: both SUSA (which has been bearish on Dems this cycle) and PPP (which has been more equivocal on Dem prospects) agree that Michael Bennet is coming up from behind in Colorado. What's more: PPP noted that almost half of the electorate in Colorado had claimed to have voted early. Bennet led that subgroup by three percent of the vote.
THE U.S. HOUSE
- Hawaii-01 (Ward Research):
Rep. Charles Djou (R) 48%, Colleen Hanabusa (D) 45%
- Hawaii-02 (Ward Research):
Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) 77%, John Willoughby (R) 16%
- Kentucky-06 (Braun Research):
Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 47%, Andy Barr (R) 42%
- Louisiana-02 (Anzalone-Liszt--D):
Cedric Richmond (D) 49%, Rep. Joseph Cao (R) 32%
- Maryland-01 (Baltimore Sun):
Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) 40%, Andy Harris (R) 40%
- Massachusetts-04 (Univ of New Hampshire):
Rep. Barney Frank (D) 46%, Sean Bielat (R) 33%, Others 5%
- Massachusetts-10 (Univ of New Hampshire):
Bill Keating (D) 37%, Jeff Perry (R) 33%, Others 10%
- Michigan-01 (EPIC-MRA):
Dan Benishek (R) 42%, Gary McDowell (D) 40%, Others 8%
- Michigan-03 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Justin Amash (R) 49%, Pat Miles (D) 30%
- Nebraska-02 (Wiese Research):
Rep. Lee Terry (R) 44%, Tom White (D) 39%
- New Jersey-01 (Zogby):
Rep. Robert Andrews (D) 63%, Dale Glading (R) 22%
- New Jersey-02 (Zogby):
Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 57%, Gary Stein (D) 20%
- Oregon-01 (Elway Research):
Rep. David Wu (D) 51%, Rob Cornilles (R) 38%, Others 3%
- Oregon-05 (Elway Research):
Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 50%, Scott Bruun (R) 38%, Others 2%
- South Dakota-AL (Nielson Brothers Polling):
Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 42%, Kristi Noem (R) 40%, Others 1%
- Virginia-02 (Christopher Newport Univ):
Scott Rigell (R) 42%, Rep. Glenn Nye (D) 41%, Others 5%
THE ANALYSIS: On balance, this is one of the better days of House horserace polling for Democrats in recent memory. MD-01, MI-01, and VA-02 had long been conceded to the GOP by most of the pundit class, but today's data seems to contradict the conventional wisdom in all three of those races. The same could probably be said for SD-AL, but that might be owed to the fact that the preponderance of polling in that race escaped from the House of Ras. Dems also have to be happy with the polling out of Oregon. While OR-01 seemed like a longshot for Dems, OR-05 was largely seen as a real threat to flip. Of course, in a sign of how difficult it is to poll House races--we now have two polls in OR-05 in one week, showing a 22-point gap. SUSA just had Bruun up by ten last week. With the new numbers in NE-02, coupled with numbers in AZ-03 and CA-03 earlier in the month, it is becoming clear that one of the most underreported polling stories this cycle has been potentially competitive GOP-held series.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
- Alabama Governor (Univ of South Alabama):
Robert Bentley (R) 48%, Ron Sparks (D) 35%
- California Governor (GQR/American Viewpoint):
Jerry Brown (D) 52%, Meg Whitman (R) 39%
- California Governor (Whitman Internal Poll--R):
Jerry Brown (D) 46%, Meg Whitman (R) 43%
- Colorado Governor (SurveyUSA):
John Hickenlooper (D) 49%, Tom Tancredo (C) 39%, Dan Maes (R) 9%
- Colorado Governor (PPP):
John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 44%, Dan Maes (R) 5%
- Florida Governor (Zogby):
Alex Sink (D) 43%, Rick Scott (R) 39%
- Georgia Governor (SurveyUSA):
Nathan Deal (R) 49%, Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Others 8%
- Hawaii Governor (Ward Research):
Neal Abercrombie (D) 51%, Duke Aiona (R) 43%
- Illinois Governor (Chicago Tribune):
Bill Brady (R) 43%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 39%, Others 11%
- Iowa Governor (Global Strategy Group--D):
Terry Branstad (R) 46%, Gov. Chet Culver (D) 40%, Others 5%
- Maryland Governor (Washington Post):
Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 54%, Robert Ehrlich (R) 40%
- Massachusetts Governor (Univ of New Hampshire):
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 43%, Charlie Baker (R) 39%, Others 10%
- Minnesota Governor (Star Tribune):
Mark Dayton (D) 41%, Tom Emmer (R) 34%, Tom Horner (I) 13%
- Minnesota Governor (St. Cloud Univ):
Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 30%, Tom Horner (I) 19%
- New Mexico Governor (G.Q.R.--D):
Susana Martinez (R) 46%, Diane Denish (D) 45%
- New Mexico Governor (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Susana Martinez (R) 50%, Diane Denish (D) 42%
- Ohio Governor (Ohio Newspapers Poll):
John Kasich (R) 49%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 47%
- Pennsylvania Governor (Muhlenberg College):
Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%
- South Dakota Governor (Nielson Brothers Polling):
Dennis Daugaard (R) 43%, Scott Heidepriem (D) 40%
- South Dakota Governor (Heidepriem Internal Poll--D):
Dennis Daugaard (R) 41%, Scott Heidepriem (D) 35%
- Texas Governor (Univ of Texas):
Gov. Rick Perry (R) 50%, Bill White (D) 40%, Others 10%
- Texas Governor (TX Interested Citizens Survey--R):
Gov. Rick Perry (R) 48%, Bill White (D) 37%, Others 4%
- Wisconsin Governor (Mellman--D):
Scott Walker (R) 47%, Tom Barrett (D) 45%
THE ANALYSIS: An intriguing mix of data greets us to start the week. South Dakota has been off the radar throughout the election. But a public poll by a rookie pollster and a Dem internal poll show the race reasonably close. Expect a counter-strike from Team Daugaard in the very, very near future. Democrats have to like the data they are seeing in California, Maryland, and Minnesota. However, they have to start getting at least a little worried about Colorado, where Dan Maes' cash-strapped campaign has finally imploded, with Tom Tancredo as the de facto GOP nominee. On the negative side, as well, is Texas, where a pair of polls paint a pretty pessimistic picture for Democrat Bill White. We get data from a couple of seldom polled races as well. That U. of South Alabama poll in the deep South contained a big caveat, claiming that Bentley led by twenty in the early phase of their polling window, but dropped to nine points after some negative news broke about Bentley. Meanwhile, Hawaii is close, but there is finally a bit of daylight between Democrat Neal Abercrombie and Republican Duke Aiona.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras follows the lead of a couple of narratives developed by earlier polling in their septet of polls released since the weekend. They have Democrats pulling away in Maryland and Connecticut, Republicans pulling away in Georgia, and Dan Onorato on the move in Pennsylvania.
Today, and this defies recent precedent, Rasmussen doesn't make a lot of news with their polling.
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 56%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%
GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R) 49%, Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Others 5%
IN-Sen: Dan Coats (R) 52%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%, Others 5%
MD-Gov: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 52%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 42%
ND-Sen: John Hoeven (R) 72%, Tracy Potter (D) 25%
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 50%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%
SC-Sen: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) 58%, Alvin Greene (D) 21%, Others 15%