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A new poll (which fully represents Cell Phone only households) finds BIG gains for President Obama and Dems.

    President Obama’s approval ratings have jumped substantially, crossing the magic halfway threshold to 54 percent, up from 48 percent in late September, while the portion of respondents who disapprove of the president dropped to 40 percent, the lowest disapproval rating in a NEWSWEEK Poll since February 2010.

Newsweek.com

   Obama on the campaign trail = GOTV WIN! and it is paying off for Dems

   The poll finds that 48 percent of registered voters would be more likely to vote for Democrats, compared with 42 percent who lean Republican (those numbers are similar to those in the last NEWSWEEK Poll, which found Democrats favored 48 percent to 43 percent).

So which is it? Because polls can not be tightening and shifting in favor of Democrats AND still have us heading to a big win for the GOP in a week. One of these narratives is doomed to fail, and I am betting it is the one based on beltway spin, not facts.

More below the fold

Crossposted at The Progressive Electorate.com

   The Newsweek article quoted above does ad the caveat that a similar shift towards Dems and President Clinton took place right before 1994, but the main factor missing between that election and this one is thatRepublicans had a favorability rating of 67 percent in 1994, whereas today that favorability rating among the public is much, much lower. This election is clearly NOT about a public that clearly wants a GOP ran congress, neither are Dems totally out of it if you count on polls that are not tilted to the GOP by under-counting younger, more ethnically diverse cell phone only households. Something has to give.

And it has.

In recent days you have not seen Republican leaders (heh) crowing about how they are poised to win, instead you have seen Republican pundits raising the strawman's specter of voter fraud.

Watch

Here's Michele Malkin going on about "voter fraud" yesterday

Next we have David Norcross, chairman of the Republican National Lawyers Association, told Newsmax magazine that ACORN has re-emerged from the shadows to engage in an "epidemic" of voter fraud once more.  

   Don't let the fact that ACORN has been disbanded let you stop beating that dead stalking horse, Mr. Norcross.

  And of course we have that dick Armey going on about how high early voter turnout for Dems equals voter fraud. Facts? Dick Armey don't need no stinking facts! He has a narrative to sell, after all.

As examiner.com put it in an article titled Eight days before the election, Republicans already allege massive voter fraud

    It appears that if Republicans win on November 2nd it will be credited to hard work and the will of the people being expressed at the ballot box.  If Democrats manage to have a good night, they will have stolen the election through voter fraud.  If the voter fraud allegations can never be proven, it will matter little to Republicans since their base will always believe in the vast, left-wing conspiracy with or without real evidence.

  Now, here is where I see the bs for what it is. If you are extremely confident you don't need to waste time ginning up a "well, if we lose, it's because of this . . . " kind of meme. As Republicans prepare their strawman of "voter fraud" as a failsafe if they should lose, it says to me that they have doubts about winning, otherwise why prepare for a loss! Combine that with Obama's soaring approval rates in the last month and polls consistently moving towards Dems in key races with the fact that Republicans are NOT seen to be nearly as favorable in this election cycle as they were in their historic wave of 1994, and what you have in my opinion is a Republican party that is planning to FAIL.

Am I dead certain in my assesment? No. Only the Sith and Republican politicians deal in absolutes. But if you asked me which is more likely, that polls which are more accurate because they include cell phone only households are improving drastically for Obama and Dems BUT at the same time Dems are headed for a huge loss, or that one of these narratives (Dems improving polls vs Republican "We Can't Lose!") is bullshit, I'd say it is the later. The fact that Republicans are rushing to build their "voter fraud" strawman at the last moment before this election says everything I need to know about the fact that Democrats can STILL keep the House of Representatives under control, but it all means nothing unless we FIGHT BACK NOW!

So, here is how to make yourself even more certain that you did your part in keeping Congress out of the hands of Republicans who serve the super rich and only the super rich . . .

Go to CallOutTheVote.com right now.

Register to phone bank for at least one hour this week, if not more.

What you do RIGHT NOW will decide whether we continue to MAKE PROGRESS as a nation, or if we go back to the George W. Bush way of doing business.

The time is NOW. Let's do this.

Because you don't prepare to lose when you are really confident of winning.

Peace and LOVE to ALL

You can follow me on Twitter @JesseLaGreca

Originally posted to MinistryOfTruth on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 08:46 AM PDT.

Poll

If you are certain of winning an election, what do you do?

38%776 votes
6%127 votes
43%874 votes
11%227 votes

| 2004 votes | Vote | Results

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