Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 2.6% (No trend lines)
Reid Ribble (R) 40
Steve Kagen (D) 37
Even though this is a close race -- just three points separate Ribble and Kagen -- the fact that nearly one in four voters are undecided isn't good news for Kagen, who was first elected in 2006. The reason for the high undecided totals is that likely voters are unfamiliar with either candidate. A total of 42 percent say that they have neither a favorable nor unfavorable impression of Kagen and 48 percent are neutral about Ribble. In the Senate race, by contrast, more than 90 percent of likely voters are familiar enough with both candidates to have formed an impression.
The lack of familiarity means voters are less likely to view the election as a choice between candidates and are more likely to see it as a referendum on the direction of the country, and while you can't count Kagen out, the underlying numbers are ominous: voters in WI-08 say they disapprove of President Obama's job performance by a 42-percent-to-54-percent margin and Russ Feingold trails Ron Johnson by seven points in the district.
The enthusiasm gap is playing much less of a role in this district than the lack of familiarity with candidates. If turnout matched 2008 levels, Kagen would be up by one point, a significant shift, but one dwarfed by the size of the undecided vote.
WI-08 is a swing district -- Obama carried the district in 2008 by a nine-point margin, but Bush won it in 2004 by 11 points.