Skip to main content

CNN has a new batch of numbers. Check out the disparities between registered voters and likely ones:

                    LV   RV


Meg Whitman (R)     44   38  
Jerry Brown (D)     51   56

Barbara Boxer (D)   50   53
Carly Fiorina (R)   45   37


J. Hickenlooper (D) 51   51
Dan Maes (R)        10   11
Tom Tancredo (C)    37   34

Michael Bennett (D) 46   49
Ken Buck (R)        47   44


Rand Paul (R)       50   46
Jack Conway (D)     43   44


Harry Reid (D)      45   43
Sharron Angle (R)   49   39


Dan Onorato (D)     45   48
Tom Corbett (R)     52   46

Joe Sestak (D)      45   47
Pat Toomey (R)      49   43

Sharron Angle doesn't even break out of the 30s among all registered voters, yet she's a good bet to win next Tuesday. We'd be looking great in Pennsylvania, even favored to hold on the governorship that has seemed like a lost cause all cycle. Jack Conway would be in good shape to pull off an upset in Kentucky. Michael Bennet would be looking solid in Colorado. And California wouldn't even be on the radar screen.

The Republicans are poised to win huge because our side won't turn out. I'm with those who think progressives are justified in being pissed and demoralized. I don't have the energy to sugarcoat it or pretend otherwise. But no matter how pissed and demoralized we are now, we'll be ten times as pissed and demoralized if we have Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Jim DeMint. (What, you think McConnell would hold on to the top spot?)

But if Republicans make their expected massive gains, it won't be because America turned against the Democrats, but because Democrats stayed home.

Update: Virtual phone banking is a great GOTV activity, and you can do it from anywhere.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:00 PM PDT.


Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  vamos a ver (6+ / 0-)

    fake doctor, fake hair...rand paul, take off that goddamn toupee!

    by memofromturner on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:01:38 PM PDT

    •  Progressives will vote (9+ / 0-)

      I'm thoroughly disappointed (if not disgusted) by both the Democratic Congress and the Obama administration: but I'm voting Tuesday, Democratic again, as the last 40 years.

      Who may not be voting: those who voted Republicans out of office for six years running, in hope of -- if nothing else -- Democrats would save the economy.

      Two years later, their unemployment running out, having lost jobs, and their homes, their health insurance, gone bankrupt from medical costs, or having their hours drastically cut at work -- I end up talking to some of these people every week -- and I can tell you, despair may not be a motivator for voting.

      Democrats may have averted a major depression, but you can't tell it by the middle-aged couple I met who once had a thriving business and are now living in their car, trying to cope with chronic illness, as well.

      You can phone all the landlines you want, you won't be able to reach them, and they have other worries then electing Democrats back into office.

      Unemployment is officically around 10%, but throw in those like my brother's friends whose business went under and don't qualify for unemployment insurance, those who've fall off the unemployment insurance rolls, and I've read it comes closer to 20%.

      I'm not even going to address the voters who ushered Democrats into office in the hope of closing Guantanamo, or ending two overseas wars, off-shore drilling, DADT or DOMA, the crimes of Wall Street and the banks.

      Oh, I'm not an expert on those topics, I just end up talking to people, every week, who have lost, or are about to lose, their livlihood, homes or healthcare.

      The lost.

      Who may not be voting Democratic in the midterms, even though, yes, it would be sensible for them to do so.

      But fear and despair in the face of a political party either unwilling or unable to assure them of basic safety in their lives isn't always a motivator to vote for that party.

      •  This progressive will vote Green. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        joey c, bobbyd12

        To discuss Republican policies that hurt the less affluent and favor those that need no favors is class warfare.

        by Diebold Hacker on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:16:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You might as well vote Republican (6+ / 0-)

          it will have the same effect, but it's your vote.

          I understand those going Third Party or staying home, but I've never seen it move the Democratic Party politicians left, and I have seen it elect Republicans.

          Which is why the Republican Party funded Green Party candidates, recently.

          But I understand your anger and frustration with the Democratic Party, although they'll read your vote as one for more digusting "bi-partisan compromises."

          •  And voting for Blue Dogs (1+ / 1-)
            Recommended by:
            Anthony Segredo
            Hidden by:

            And fake Dems will move the party left? Sorry but I have been saying it all along, the only way to take back the Democratic Party is to suffer a huge defeat by Progressives who stay home or vote elsewhere. You don't call me a "fuckin retard" and expect my vote. Crash and Burn and start from scratch.

            •  I've been called "fucking retarded" as well (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Angie in WA State

              but I've also seen 40 years of Republicans winning when Dems voted third party.

              And the Republicans have always been crazier and more venal, and such destroyers of the country and Constitution to make their Democratic politican imitators look like amateurs.

              The "lesson" Blue Dogs will learn from the lack of votes for Democrats is to act more like Republicans, the guys who won, by hook or crook.

              There's a reason Republicans are funding Green candidates in both Arizona and Pennsylvania.

            •  same crap, different election (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              kefauver, Matt Z, supercereal

              the only way to take back the Democratic Party is to suffer a huge defeat by Progressives who stay home or vote elsewhere

              And how'd that work out for us the last time?  And btw, you were not called a "fuckin retard".  As long as you hang on to your outrage over something that was overblown and out of context you will be acting out of emotion instead of rational thought.  It's exactly what fuels the teapublicans.  

              I thought we were better than that but I certainly have learned through the last two years that we are just as susceptible to the misplaced outrage and misinformed actions as they are. That's what's depressing to me.  

              Pres. Obama to Democrats: we are not bound to win but bound to be true.

              by glynis on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 05:18:41 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  No One Called You a "Fuckin Retard." (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Matt Z

              And I'm voting for my blue dog who happens to vote with Democrats 94% of the time versus a Republican candidate who will vote with Democrats 0-10% of the time. Oh, and that green candidate will vote with Democrats 0% of the time because that Green candidate doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting elected.

              I don't want an Oompa-Loompa as Speaker of the House.

              by kefauver on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 05:43:23 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  because people like you who might agree (0+ / 0-)

                with that green candidate would rather play election predictor and only vote for people who might win. if you voted your conscience instead of your cynicism, maybe we'd have viable third parties.

                "You try to vote or participate in the government/ and the muh'fuckin' Democrats is actin' like Republicans" ~ Kweli

                by joey c on Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 08:05:47 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  this argument is so pathetic (0+ / 0-)

            "well, I know that the slightly-less-rightist of the mainstream parties has alternated between ignoring and denigrating crucial aspects of the coalition that helped it win a majority in 2008, but you should vote for them anyways because to do otherwise is quixotic."

            Voting for them is quixotic too, if one holds out any hope that they might act like leftists.

            "You try to vote or participate in the government/ and the muh'fuckin' Democrats is actin' like Republicans" ~ Kweli

            by joey c on Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 08:03:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Bravo (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Angie in WA State, Matt Z

        What a well written comment.  Also a very true one...we live in tragic times.  I've never felt less secure and I still have a house, a job, my health.  But it all feels like it'll go away in a flash.  

        Like you, as angry as I am at the Dems for not being more effective and better at delivering their message, I'll be voting for them because if the GOP takes over I won't even have the hope of someone trying to stop the pillage of the middle class.  The tightrope will get that much scarier.

  •  CNN Polls make me nuts. (28+ / 0-)

    They have no responses from anyone under 35 in most of their polls, and the rest have no responses from anyone under 50.

    Nobody under 50?  Are they kidding?

    "A Canadian is merely an unarmed American with health care." John Wing

    by marigold on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:02:27 PM PDT

  •  I hoping the LV screens for a lot of (11+ / 0-)

    these polls are too tight and that a lot more of those RVs get out and vote, and that helps us win some of these races.

  •  Meg gets around (12+ / 0-)

    She's running against Jerry Brown AND Barbara Boxer. No wonder she's doing so poorly.

  •  Well, I for one will be literally dragging... (17+ / 0-)

    ...everyone I know to the polls.  But I still think the LV models are complete crap and designed to create a horse race where none exists...

  •  Uh...Barbara Boxer's running against Fiorina... (4+ / 0-)

    ...NOT Whitman. Better change that.

    "I feel a lot safer already."--Emil Sitka

    by DaddyO on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:03:48 PM PDT

  •  CNN?... (12+ / 0-)
    ...CNN has been preaching conventional wisdom doom & gloom for Democrats for the past year.  Of course they are going to offer numbers that back their narrative.

    I believe these numbers about as far as I can throw CNN meatpuppet Erick Erickson.

    I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I become a messageboard genius. Stay thirsty, my friends. -(Message from The World's Most Interesting Kossack)

    by wyvern on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:04:30 PM PDT

    •  Reminds me of the time I was at the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      Atlantis Resort.  Parked in the yacht dock, was a gorgeous, sleek, black yacht.  On the exterior, flat screen teevees were tuned to CNN.  Gee, wonder who owns that, we said.  Sure enough, on our way back to our room through the casino, who do we literally bump into?  Wolfie, looking all poutie and primadonnish.  Hubby even shook his hand (don't ask my why).  I wonder who CNN management and Wolfie want to win this election.  Hmmmmm......

      Got Social Security? Thank a Democrat!

      by Fury on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:31:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  You believe any poll released? (19+ / 0-)

    The margin of error is 7%. That means the poll is a joke. But the panic sure helps.

    "I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

    by mark louis on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:04:40 PM PDT

  •  "our side won't turn out" (6+ / 0-)

    That's what is needed less than 1 week from the election, panic and pessimism.

  •  Whitman's losing twice! (5+ / 0-)

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

    by darthstar on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:05:08 PM PDT

  •  Somehow (0+ / 0-)

    But if Republicans make their expected massive gains, it won't be because America turned against the Democrats, but because Democrats stayed home.

    Somehow, I think this is an oversimplification. Perhaps it might be a blend of "turning against" and "staying home".

    The fundamental delusion of humanity is to suppose that I am here and you are out there. - Yasutani Roshi

    by lotusmaglite on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:06:21 PM PDT

    •  Not really (4+ / 0-)

      All the same polls that have been predicting doom and gloom show that voters really don't like Republicans.

      Proud supporter of nuclear power!

      by zegota on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:07:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What I mean is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Lize in San Francisco

        ... have we not had nearly two years of strife over whether or not the administration has been paying attention to the desires of the left?

        This would be the "turning against" bloc, imho...

        The fundamental delusion of humanity is to suppose that I am here and you are out there. - Yasutani Roshi

        by lotusmaglite on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:09:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Voters don't like R's OR D's (0+ / 0-)

        It's the independents that are staying home.  Recent poll of Illinois voters: Do you think Alexi G is honest? Yes 31%  Do you think Mark Kirk is honest? Yes 36%. Neither number is much higher than their respective registered base.  Conclusion? Independents don't trust either one. Not surprising considering a campaign that more resembles two monkeys throwing feces at each other than a rational exposition of issues and stands.  Unfortunately, Republicans are better at throwing feces, being so full of it.

    •  No. (5+ / 0-)

      In 2008 Oregon voters voted for state legislative candidates 59-41 Democrat over Republican.  Polling today showed they favor Democrats only 42-40, but look at that: the number wanting to vote for Republicans remains unchanged.

      "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau

      by James Allen on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:09:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  lotusmaglite: Dems were turned against.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      anastasia p, bridav58

      The media -- the corporate owned media -- has been working to turn people against the Democrats.

      Any voter who is able to get sufficiently involved and informed knows that there is a universe of difference between the anti-Obama and the anti-Democratic Party propaganda and the truth.

      Also, levelheaded voters know that it is essential to do everything possible to block the Republicans.

      ... And that any dissatisfaction with the Democrats is best dealt with by getting more involved with the party -- becoming the party, becoming the change you wish to see.

      Media Reform Action Link

      by LNK on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:37:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's right, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        and one of my main goals after this election will be working to destroy the mainstream media, to get progressive to organize to start doing with the right did decades ago, when they began intimidating the media with their false charges of "liberal media." So the media became in fact right-wing media, terrified to criticize Republicans lest it get a flood of backlash. They need to start getting backlash from us. I will not rest until Cleveland, Ohio becomes the first major American city with no daily newspaper — although I wouldn't mind if someone else beat us to it. The media has to go down.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08

        by anastasia p on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:17:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Who determines LV vs RV ? (7+ / 0-)

    I just have always found it rather odd they can tell this up front. Beside why do we think the Moderate voters are so pumped?

    Disabled Viet Vet ret. My snark is worse than my bite

    by eddieb061345 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:06:42 PM PDT

    •  the pollster does ! (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Matt Z, kingyouth, TomP

      I am an unabashed supporter of President Obama and ALL Democrats - so deal with it !

      by geeknnerd2 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:09:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  DUh.. Thats the problem for me. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        What I meant to ask is on what basis do they decide if a person is Likely to vote? Do they ask them? Do they do it by demographics. If you are a college student registered considered not Likely. And most importantly how accurate are they? Is it a science or an art?

        Disabled Viet Vet ret. My snark is worse than my bite

        by eddieb061345 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:15:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Exactly. My 24 year old son who voted for the (7+ / 0-)

          first time in 2008, would never make the "likely" category.  Probably me either if I spoke to the pollster in a negative way, right?  There are days I probably would sound pretty much like an unlikely voter even if I vote faithfully every year.

          I don't understand why "This is NOT good news for McCain." and don't want to.

          by alliedoc on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:18:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Thinking about demographics, (0+ / 0-)

          how many college-aged people are actually either living at home or even living in the same state as their permanent residence? Also, how many young voters use only their cell phone as their main telephone?

          Frankly, I have never understood why a person would be a registered voter and then never turn out to vote.

          "If what you believe is irrelevant then what you say is merely a matter of convenience." h/t blue aardvark

          by kingyouth on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:28:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  And me... Poll bias results in LV/RV skew? (0+ / 0-)

          This makes me wonder if there is a relationship between skewed polling and Rv/LV disparities.

          Numbers will be interesting to dissect after.

          "When you enter the ocean, you enter the food chain, and not necessarily at the top." - Cousteau

          by Thucydides Junior on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:46:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  For Dems, it's ALWAYS about GOTV/nt (5+ / 0-)

    If looks could kill it would have been us instead of him.

    by jhannon on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:07:14 PM PDT

  •  1988 midterms (9+ / 0-)

    I'm sure it's been blogged to death, but I have somehow missed it.  I seem to remember in '98 all the talking heads were convinced that the Republicans were going to make gains in both houses.  

    That didn't happen...I remember driving home from work that night listening to the radio commentators and how shocked they were and telling a friend of mine that was hitching a ride with me how great it felt to realize that the American people knew when to just ignore the TeeVee people.  

    What is different this year to what was happening in 1998?  Dems back then were supposed to be demoralized and too angry to back their side.  Didn't happen...was it really a total surprise or am I remembering that incorrectly?

    •  the general consensus was (8+ / 0-)

      the democrats would get wiped out in the house (lose 30 more seats) .. that's what newt was predicting ... and would lose enough seats in the senate to give the GOP a filibuster proof majority

      the dems picked up 5 seats in the house and 0 (no loss) in the Senate (notable Senate losers - carol mosley braun in IL (D) lauch faircloth in NC - launching the ill fated career of DKOS sweetheart John Edwards !!, and most shocking of all Al Damato unseated by schumer)

      I am an unabashed supporter of President Obama and ALL Democrats - so deal with it !

      by geeknnerd2 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:16:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Different? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, kingyouth

      Republicans aren't impeaching the President, for one thing. Impeaching Clinton was a major blunder on the part of the GOP.

      Also -- Democrats didn't control the Congress in 1998. You couldn't just point a finger and say "They did it."

      And, this is the first midterm of Obama's Presidency, not the second.  If you'll recall, Clinton lost 54 seats in his first midterm.

      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

      by dinotrac on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:17:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Okay, True. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, Lize in San Francisco

        but I have to think there are a lot of people who may not think Obama is doing a great job...but resent the blatant racism and disrespect that the right wingers are throwing around.  His likeability numbers are still up above 50% last time I looked.  I think the GOP is overplaying its hand on this too.

        •  LV, RV (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Spin it all you want. Fact is Independents have swung to the GOP. New CBS poll tonight showed just how badly the numbers have gotten. That is why Democrats are going to lose the House and lose it big. GOTV is about getting out the base. Between the Independents, the definite enthusiasm gap, GOP up 4% in Nevada early voting, and the older voters running scared, it all points to a wave election.  

          •  Lose the House and lose it big (0+ / 0-)

            which makes absolutely no sense because the House was certainly much more progressive in the legislation they passed than the Senate.  So why should progressives not be voting to maintain that?  Cut off your nose to spite your face.

            Pres. Obama to Democrats: we are not bound to win but bound to be true.

            by glynis on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 05:28:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Oh really??? (0+ / 0-)

            The polls posted earlier seem to show the DEMs having some momentum,Newsweek & Marist both having polls showing that. Guess we'll find out Tuesday.

  •  I'm a bit confused here (8+ / 0-)

    There are a slew of voters who say "oh yeah, I'd vote for the Dem ... but I'm not gonna vote!"?

    If they're getting "likely" based on matching a composite of 2006 turnout demographics ... methinks Fox had better get a case of Kleenex in at HQ.

  •  Facebook (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, kck, Matt Z
    I really think Facebook is going to change the particpation rates this year over prior mid-terms.

    We have never had a mid-term election in the age of facebook and twitter.  I find these to be the best source of information on politics and may insire lots of people to vote who otherwise may not have.

    The 2002 and 2006 models won't work this year.  I really think participation will be higher which is good for Dems.

    •  yes. i plan on asking Friends to vote! (0+ / 0-)

               everyone on Kos use FB to Gotv!

      •  Yea I posted a Diary by Digby just on that issue. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, wishingwell

        I also have Dkos now posting on my FB page automatically. At the top right of this Story is a Facebook section. If you hit the like button Dkos will automatically post to your page!

        Disabled Viet Vet ret. My snark is worse than my bite

        by eddieb061345 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:19:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That's bad news for Dems then (0+ / 0-)

      at least according to this story cited yesterday by kos:

      GOP Beating Democrats with Social Media for Midterm Elections

      Meanwhile, a report from the non-partisan shows Republicans appear to be more engaged online than Democrats in this election cycle. Out of the current crop of Senate candidates, the Republicans have more than 1.4 million friends on Facebook and over 500,000 followers on Twitter.

      By contrast, the Democratic Senate candidates have roughly 300,000 friends on Facebook and around 90,000 followers on Twitter as of September 21

      "If we believe absurdities, we shall commit atrocities" -- Voltaire

      by Sagebrush Bob on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:16:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And something I have seen in PA doing GOTV (6+ / 0-)

      and volunteering for over 30 years here....turnout often is higher than expected for elections.

      I do know that every Presidential election, the MSM is obsessed about PA being a swing state that could go red. But PA has gone blue in election cycles for 24 years.

      Everything is GOTV for Democrats especially in PA. As I will be closely watching turnout in Democratic districts particularly Philly and the suburbs. Teabaggers are not popular and laughed at in some regions of PA.

      We outhumber the Republicans by a large margin in PA. The key is getting those Democrats to show up and we are working hard at that and putting in long hours.

      I remember Primary night in May here where MSNBC said they were stunned as were pollsters by the higher than expected turnout in PA by Democrats for a primary. I hope we can shock them again.  Even the White House said they were pleasantly surprised by the high primary turnout for the Democrats in PA, totally unexpected.

      I just hope we can repeat this and shock the tv networks again and the pollsters.

  •  I'm betting the LV voter screens are skewed (7+ / 0-)
  •  even the lv screen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happymisanthropy, bridav58

    looks encouraging, for the colorado governor's race- others have shown tancredo closing fast.

    but it sure would have been nice to have seen more fight on the issues, from dc dems. even if we lost on a few, just making the effort would have inspired the base.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:08:14 PM PDT

  •  typo alert (0+ / 0-)

    boxer is running against carly fiorina, not meg whitman, markos.

    surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

    by wu ming on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:08:16 PM PDT

  •  We might be pissed (what's new?), (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, beltane, happymisanthropy

    but I doubt that we would be anywhere near as demoralized. I was just over at ABC's Jake Tapper announcement of the liberal bloggers' meeting with Obama and the commentary is precious. I have to tell you frankly, it was really fun commenting on the commentary.

    Maybe some of our leadership could have the same attitude toward the crazies? That would really perk me up. Rather than coddling them, we might start to see some fireworks. A couple years of Fourth of July pyrotechnics would be just what the doctor ordered.

    And, kudos to Barbara Morrill et al! I can't wait to see their columns.

    "Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth." Oscar Wilde

    by nippersdad on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:08:21 PM PDT

  •  GOP going all out after Boxer (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Matt Z, beltane

    Matthews said they are dropping 3 million in the state, I assume because they can't take the senate without winning in Ca.
    Also Mattews is still an idiot, he predicted the GOP takes the senate because of the wave when all polling shows this isn't even possible.
    By the way it appears no one is bothering to poll Delaware anymore.

  •  No doubt about it, having Bush in the (10+ / 0-)

    White House screwing up this nation was bad for the nation, but good for Democrats on Election Day in 2006 and 2008.  With Bush in the dustbin of history, politics is that much tougher for Dems.  Insisting on bipartisanship and trying to find common ground with GOoPers for two years didn't inspire our base to hammer the final nails in the GOP's figurative coffin.

    Barack Obama in the Oval Office: There's a black man who knows his place.

    by Greasy Grant on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:09:43 PM PDT

  •  kos: ADD ACTION LINK! (0+ / 0-)

    Media Reform Action Link

    by LNK on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:10:18 PM PDT

  •  If Obama Fires Gibbs and Denounces Rahm Emanuel (0+ / 0-)

    I will go out and vote.  The reason I am going to sit at home is because those fucking Emanuel and Gibbs made fun of Americans over and over and still think that we will go out and vote for them.

  •  Turned against is be too strong a word, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    but Democrats can't win with Democrats alone, and independent voters have swung the other way in race after race after race.

    It's nothing personal, and doesn't represent any particular antipathy towards Democrats.  Those same independents voted Democrats in 2 years ago and in the 2006 midterms.

    But -- what are we to do when your priorities seem out of whack?  It bites that Republicans are the alternative, but -- that's the way it is.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:11:01 PM PDT

    •  Dino, are you still considering voting for some (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Republicans? I think you have alluded to that from time to time. ?

      •  Yes -- but that's not a big stretch for me. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, Matt Z

        Remember that I'm an independent voter and a conservative one at that. I've never voted straight ticket for anybody, even in my younger days when I actually was a Democrat.  I even voted for Jimmy Carter over Ronald Reagan.

        2006 to some extent, and 2008 to a great extent were aberrations for me -- I voted for more Democrats than usual, including for national office.

        Let's just say the Republicans pissed me off royally.
        Would have voted for a Democrat for President in 2004 if that Democrat hadn't been John Kerry. I kind of hoped that Howard Dean would win the nom.

        This year, my wife is voting for at least one Green, and I am probably going to go 'R' for Congress, but there's a reason I haven't done the early voting thing.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:40:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Mandatory voting would guarentee progressive (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TJ, shpilk, wishingwell, JanL

    victories.  At least as presently constituted.

    But it's not the progressives who are staying home.

    It is the vast dispirited middle who are staying home.

    Their disenchantment is with the bleakness of their own personal lives.

    Progressives will vote.  Not happily but we'll vote.

    Debra "But what I have concluded over the years is that talent is universal, but opportunity is not." SOS Clinton

    by debcoop on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:12:38 PM PDT

  •  Many races have been moving in our direction - (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Fury, JanL, Matt Z, aliasalias

    closer, even if we're still behind. I'm not giving up yet. We may not look great overall, but I believe the "big mo" is on our side. There's a week left to flip some of these numbers.

    I believe that in every country the people themselves are more peaceably and liberally inclined than their governments. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by Blue Knight on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:13:35 PM PDT

  •  I'll believe it when I see it. (9+ / 0-)

    I'm not buying the huge disparity between LV and RV. I have a sneaking suspicion that pollsters and media types are playing up the differences to keep the narrative going.

    I predicted, weeks ago, that as election day got closer, the numbers would tighten because average voters don't think about voting weeks and months in advance like teabaggers do. They have other crap going on. And I think I've been vindicated on that point. Stories are finally leaking out now, putting the brakes on the "OMG GOP!" parade. I bet actual poll numbers will more closely reflect RV than LV.

    That said, I do want to agree that if all registered voters turned out, we'd be in much better shape. Not just in 2010 but all-time.

    The common media narrative is that America is a center-right country. I don't think it is. I think it's a center-left country, but it gets pulled to the right because the right is the segment of the electorate that votes rabidly.

    I contend that people who would otherwise have left-leaning ideas stay home on election day because all they hear from people is how screwed up government is, how corrupt all politicians are, etc. So they figure, "I'm not gonna get involved with politics because it's all just a big waste of my time."

    But if they all voted, things would start leaning left again, and government would actually start reflecting the true slant of the people: leaning left.

    •  Or (4+ / 0-)

      the pollsters are just lazy

    •  Eric excellent comment, I agree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, Eric0125

      I especially liked this part of your post.

      I contend that people who would otherwise have left-leaning ideas stay home on election day because all they hear from people is how screwed up government is, how corrupt all politicians are, etc. So they figure, "I'm not gonna get involved with politics because it's all just a big waste of my time."

      But if they all voted, things would start leaning left again, and government would actually start reflecting the true slant of the people: leaning left

      I think this is true. I think a lot of moderates stay home who are center left. Some feels all politics is a waste of time and all politicians are the same. But when talking to them, you find out they are quite liberal of social issues and middle of the road on fiscal issues. Ie they are more left leaning than right.

      The key is getting these people who are center left to register to vote and then show up to vote.

      •  Exactly! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, Matt Z

        I think a lot of moderates stay home who are center left. Some feels all politics is a waste of time and all politicians are the same. But when talking to them, you find out they are quite liberal of social issues and middle of the road on fiscal issues. Ie they are more left leaning than right.


        Most folks will agree that there should be a minimum wage, and safeguards against mining companies dumping their toxic slurry into local rivers. Most folks agree that the new healthcare bill doesn't do enough (not too much), and that credit card companies shouldn't be able to jack up their interest rates without prior notification.

        But they don't show up to voice those opinions because they think all politicians are liars and cheats, and because of the annoyingly persistent view that "one vote never made a difference".

        Politics is futile to them. Might as well just let the chips fall where they may and try to make the best of it regardless. But here's something to think about: One vote (Justice Kennedy's) sure made a huge difference in 2000.

  •  yikes (15+ / 0-)

    Kos just retweeted this

    RalstonFlash Jon Ralston
    Got crosstabs on CNN, tweeps. Get this: They have Reid holding 96% Ds, Angle 82% Rs. If so Reid wins. Apply to current turnout, Reid up 8!

    What if the hokey pokey is what it's all about?

    by Julie Gulden on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:14:03 PM PDT

  •  I am sick to death of polls and the pollish peopl (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pat bunny, Matt Z, oxfdblue, OHknighty

    who spout them.  Good analysis.  Just a simple statement of the results, not "Oh, Sestak is up 2 points relative to last poll".  Thanks.

    This statement really hit home:  I don't have the energy to sugarcoat it or pretend otherwise.

    I have done jack shit this time but feel the same way.

    I don't understand why "This is NOT good news for McCain." and don't want to.

    by alliedoc on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:14:23 PM PDT

  •  Here's rational analysis of the poll (9+ / 0-)

    From Jon Ralston in NV:

    Got crosstabs on CNN, tweeps. Get this: They have Reid holding 96% Ds, Angle 82% Rs. If so Reid wins. Apply to current turnout, Reid up 8!

    "I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum."

    by mark louis on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:15:45 PM PDT

  •  Go ahead and pretend and sugarcoat it--- (3+ / 0-)

    something helpful, not hurtful.

  •  We'd be in great shape if the Democrats could (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, MikePhoenix, mdmslle, Jerry056

    learn how to communicate and didn't shape their actions according to what the Republicans do.

    The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. Bertrand Russell

    by accumbens on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:16:59 PM PDT

  •  Don't turn this into a self-fulfilling prophecy - (11+ / 0-)

    You are 'pissed (at whom?) and demoralized.'  But the pessimism is hurting.  What if we hold on to the senate, and lose the house by 5 seats.  In other words, what if Nate is wrong about losing 50 seats - instead we lose 44 seats.  In which case,  everyone is going to talk about how close we were to holding on to it, and how it was a lot closer than everyone predicted.  And then we will talk not about how demoralized and pissed we are, but about how we screwed up a great opportunity.   Remember, if we only lose 35 seats, it will be seen as a huge victory for us and huge defeat for them.  Is it at all possible that Nate is wrong by 15  seats in the house?  In other words, we are capable of winning this thing, but being 'pissed and demoralized' only turns it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

  •  For Dems who are frustrated with Obama (12+ / 0-)

    and dont want to vote. Look at this way: Obama is not on the ballot. But many progressive Democrats are. How will we advanced progressive initiatives with those Dems losing and being replaced with Republicans? Look at CO-SEN, for instance. Bennet voted in favor of repealing DADT, while Buck is in favor of it. If you are a Dem living in CO, who wants to stay home, is that the best idea?  

  •  I don't think Progressives have any reason (16+ / 0-)

    to be disappointed with Obama.  He has made substantial progress in a hostile political climate and even worse economic climate.

    Just because you wish you had public option and didn't get it, doesn't mean you should take it out on the party.  

    To me this election is about the maturity level of the American voter.  Do the American people have the foresight to reward the hard working Democrats and President who have strived with great effort to fix the mess made? Or are we going to reward the petulant GOP with power just because too many liberals won't vote unless everything gets done exactly the way they want it. You can't make the perfect the enemy of the good, because the result is that vultures are usually there to fill the vacuum.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:18:07 PM PDT

    •  Commentators on the left (7+ / 0-)

      who consistently take the "glass is half-empty" critique of Obama, Pelosi, and Reid bear at least some responsibility for any gap between Registered Voters and those who actually show up to vote next week.

      10, 20, 30 years from now the accomplishments of Obama, Reid, and Pelosi in '09-'10 will stand tall and people will find it strange that they were subjected to so much ridicule from their supposed allies.

      11/4 Changed Everything - Now, Henceforward, and Forever.

      by Sam I Am on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:32:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The crappy is also the enemy of the good (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      usagi, Odysseus

      OK, set aside the Public Option, and the documented fact that wise Obama still spoke highly of it in September 2009 after he had already sold it down the river in  August 2009...

      Of course, there's FISA and Obama's Bush-like stand on State Secrecy, his failure to do anything to clean up CIA torture, renditions, black site prisons or other ongoing war crimes....

      Of course at least he's hip and realizes that smoking is allowed - oh, wait, that's tobacco only....

      But then his foreign policy is good - stop the endless wars and - oh wait, I forgot, the generals only gave him the choice of escalation, so he had to do it...

      Of course, he's really socked it to those bankers and created jobs - wait.....

    •  Khyber has a good point , very good points made (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, Lize in San Francisco
  •  No One Forced Democratic Leaders to be (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Democratic Leaders.  So if they screw up big time leading, it is not our fault, but there's (sorry about that Joe "my father was a coal miner" Biden).

    I went into the booth today and held my nose and voted in Illinois for Quinn and for Alexi and of course for Jesse White (and Mike Quigley).  But for other statewide offices I pulled an R because Lisa Madigan is a media creation whose electorability is based on the corruption and brass knuckles of her father.  The state is bankrupt and it is the Democrats' fault (but Governor Brady is untenable and I will not do anything to facilitate the election of Leader McConnell).

    On a national level the Democrats failed to do no brainers where the solutions were clean and clear before the lobbyists messed with our guys' heads - health care; bank reform; immigration reform.  And our guys in the Senate facilitated the Republicans total disrespect of our first African American President by not pushing through appointments that were stragithforward and noncontroversial.

    Apres this election la deluge - and Justice Roberts' et al when the deluge comes the property rights of your sponsors that have been your only concern won't be worth sh*t.  

    •  Bless you! (0+ / 0-)

      I forgot all about Jesse White.

      So far, I only had local Dems on my "vote for" list, but Jesse gives me a statewide office I can vote "D" for.

      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

      by dinotrac on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:24:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So you are voting Republican for Senate and House (0+ / 0-)

        Really Dino? If so,I have to ask why you enjoy participating here if I may be so blunt...with all due respect.

        •  There's not always an election brewing, and (0+ / 0-)

          echo chambers are boring.

          Besides -- how many "blue" sites actually discuss the ramifications of global warming and how we can deal with it?

          That's the problem with being an independent - you never quite belong anywhere.  OTOH, there's no really good reason to avoid anywhere unless it's just boring.

          Besides, who doesn't like C&J?  

          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

          by dinotrac on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 05:09:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I've been wrong before (10+ / 0-)

    but this Nevadan is sticking to his original prediction that Harry Reid will pull this out. Harry always wins by narrow margins and the more people know about Angle, the more most people don't want her elected - even some Republican acquaintances of mine.

    "If we believe absurdities, we shall commit atrocities" -- Voltaire

    by Sagebrush Bob on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:18:43 PM PDT

  •  Those crosstabs (5+ / 0-)

    are so freakin' sloppy a mediocre undergrad in a basic statistics course would probably submit a better presentation!

  •  There are some exceptions. (7+ / 0-)

    If I lived in AR, I'd vote. But not for Blanche. I just couldn't do it, even if the race was close [and she's done].

    In NE in 2012, same thing for Ben Nelson.

    There's a small handful of really disgusting Blue Dogs in the House, perhaps 6 I couldn't vote for .. that's about it.

    In States like mine, in NH, we have wonderful Democratic candidates: I don't think it's progressives who are 'staying home' in NH, I think it's media lies and propaganda that's driving the dynamic here.

    RepubliCorp = "Nazi Lite" (Godwin approved message)

    by shpilk on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:19:37 PM PDT

  •  Reality has dawned on me that barring a miracle (0+ / 0-)

    Dems are gonna get killed next week. Many of the polls out today are just horrid for democrats. When you ignore the base on simple matters like don't ask don't tell this is this result. Trangulation has never worked and wil never work. Barring some change to the crazy thinking of those who think they're smarter than us all, 2012 will be a massacre compared to what might happen next week.

  •  A fifty-year-long frustration with me: (10+ / 0-)

    the fact that Democrats do not fully realize the power they have. The absolute, unbridled power.

    Ditto the worldwide working class and wage earners of billions of people: We have an internalized sense of impotence and disinterest. That's why it pays the powers that be to keep us paranoid, suspicious, and divided, and cynical.

    White working-class and older conservatives always vote. Even for the dogcatcher's secretary. Fear of losing white power and clout, along with hammered Republican lies and deception, will get them to the polls every time.

    Oh, make me wanna holler /And throw up both my hands--Marvin Gaye

    by Wildthumb on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:20:11 PM PDT

  •  Whare do Independents fit in this picture? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    amk for obama

    I noticed thse numbers do not enclude them.

    Disabled Viet Vet ret. My snark is worse than my bite

    by eddieb061345 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:23:37 PM PDT

    •  Everything I've heard says they're going R (0+ / 0-)

      That's why the Dem rallies have been aimed at just getting the base to show up. They've pretty much written off the indies.

      •  All of the Indies? I thought Obama voters (0+ / 0-)

        who are Independents were also being focus on with GOTV. ? Those who are mailing lists and email lists for Obama are being conducted via OFA..that I do know. I do not think all of them are being written off.

        Remember Independents are not all swing voters. As we encounter Indies who almost always vote for Democrats and some who almost vote for Republicans as they are ex Repubs who left the party due to Bush.

        But I have a number of Independent friends who vote D consistently and love Obama.

  •  Definitely GOTV (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    But be careful of whining, or playing the blame game.

    A nuanced analysis recognizes there are independents, not to mention people who call themselves Dems or Reps but have no serious affiliation.

    If we lose, it just may be because people who voted Dem last time from categories like those, decided to sit this one out, or give the other side a chance. They could do so for reasons ranging from disgust to disappointment to laziness.

    So be careful in casting aspersions.

    Jedermann sein eigner Fussball!

    by Lochbihler on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:23:53 PM PDT

  •  Don't it always seem to go (6+ / 0-)

    That you don't know what you've got
    'Til it's gone...

  •  I'm not... (6+ / 0-)

    sold on any LV models for this most unusual of midterm elections. I'll withhold scolding Democrats until next Wednesday.

    •  They appear to be stuck on the old mindset (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      only those who voted in previous midterms are likely to show up this time, so we'll just tweak the demographics a bit from that.

      •  True, I am thinking many polls include in their (0+ / 0-)

        LV only those who voted in 2006. As some polls actually ask this.  And we have new voters now from 2008 who are planning to vote and keep voting each time. I wonder if new voters are being excluded from polls based on them not voting in 2006. ?

        I also wonder about those folks who were registered for years but just start voting regularly once Bush got in office and messed up things. We have encountered folks like that with GOTV who were registered Democrats for years and never voted until Bush got into office and they got pissed off.

        I just wonder who is being excluded from the LV model to their answers not being about whether they will vote but how often they voted before.

        As I have been polled and they ask if I voted and when. !!

    •  I sort of agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I'm not going to say all the polls are wrong, and Dems are going to do great. It will no doubt be a difficult election, but looking at the significant difference in between RV and LV in some of these Senate race polls(PA, NV, CO), if the LV screen is even slightly off, it could mean a "surprising" Dem win.

  •  Enough is Enough!!!! (19+ / 0-)

    Look, Kos, you're my boy and all, but it's time to cease and desist with this "progressives have a right to be pissed and demoralized" meme.  If black folks had copped to this attitude before and during the Civil Rights Movement, there wouldn't have BEEN a Civil Rights Movement!!!  Lesson: it was more than four decades between the founding of the NAACP (1909) and passage of the first Civil Rights Act (1957). So all you progressives ages 20-35...GROW UP!!!!! You don't get a home run first time at bat? Keep stepping up to the plate!!!  Again, grow up...and GOTV!!!!!!

  •  I would add one more cause in the sequence (4+ / 0-)

    You wrote

    But if Republicans make their expected massive gains, it won't be because America turned against the Democrats, but because Democrats stayed home.

    I would make it

    ...but because Democratic politicians, starting with Obama, scorned their base, and then their base stayed home.

  •  On the left side of the page, (6+ / 0-)

    doom and gloom.  On the right side, optimism and tenacity.  Gee, which side should I stay on?

    Got Social Security? Thank a Democrat!

    by Fury on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:27:10 PM PDT

  •  Also the demographics of midterms (6+ / 0-)

    Part of it is that Democrats are demoralized, but I think the larger problem is that a substantial part of the Democratic base in 2008 was made up of people who just don't have a good track record of voting in midterms (young, low-income, unmarried, and minority).  

    The anomaly would be if these folks actually turned out in the 2010 midterm, not if they didn't.  Recall also that Democrats have done well (or at least broke even) with seniors in past elections (pre-2008).  This year seniors are breaking HEAVILY against Democratic candidates -- and this isn't surprising given how poorly Obama did among those 65+.  Seniors have always voted in high numbers and their proportion historically goes up even higher than that during midterms.

    Demographics is destiny.

  •  Frankly I'm sick of this jerking around by these (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, fumie, Fury, Matt Z, amk for obama

    FUCKING polls!!!!! Every time I open a dairy I get a different take for the same race. How can a series of pols show Sestak on the uptik then sudenly he is down 4-5 points with no explaination how couslds 4 to 5 Percent of the Voters suddenly change their mind. The media always plays these as if they are absolutely accurate, then they do the same thing when they suddenly change.

    Disabled Viet Vet ret. My snark is worse than my bite

    by eddieb061345 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:31:05 PM PDT

  •  Daily Kos website. A trick? (7+ / 0-)

    Dear Kos,

    You know who I am. Hint: "Happy Days Are Here Again"

    Sometimes I have this awful feeling that the Daily Kos website is a trick for preventing activists from doing real work. For example, with a title like "If all registered voters voted, we'd be in much better shape...." the next sentence better be:

    YOU must do all you can to get out the vote.... And here are the links:


    Search via zipcode for calling and knocking on doors on Oct 30-Nov 2:

    Media Reform Action Link

    by LNK on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:31:08 PM PDT

  •  Every single Democrat I know in every single (14+ / 0-)

    state in this country is or has already voted a straight DEMOCRATIC TICKET.

    I hate this defeatist attitude, kos.  Talk about throwing in the towel before the first bell has even rung.  Damn.

    We have to work HARDER TO GOTV, ya'll!!!  Crying uncle before THE POLLS HAVE EVEN OPENED is totally insane, especially with the evil this country is facing.


    Fox News + Saudi Prince = Propaganda Promoting Sedition

    by Little Lulu on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:31:57 PM PDT

  •  This is really amazing, especially (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    baked potato

    after the 2006 midterm elections giving Dems the house and senate. Democrats and Independents spoke Loud and Clear. Likewise in 2010....Obama makes history. All based on a message of Change, change from the repuke way of doing business: War, More War, Reward Corrupt Bankers, More War, Outsource our Jobs, More War, Lie about HCR....My God, did President Obama really think he could just screw over his supporters and they would come back to the polls?

  •  Save the defeatism till we're defeated. (13+ / 0-)

    Until then, it's Motivation Time.  Democrats forever!!

    The Obama/Biden Inaugural -- the exact moment when the world went from gray to colorful.

    by alkatt on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:34:11 PM PDT

  •  Angle is not poised to win. The race is a toss-up (9+ / 0-)

    Everyone needs to keep GOTV and we will do just fine. Dems are turning out at higher than expected rates across the country.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:34:12 PM PDT

    •  Angle is probably going to win. (0+ / 0-)

      And you know why?  People don't like Harry Reid.  And the ONE ad I did not want to see in Nevada, may do him in.  The out of touch ad, having Reid living at the Ritz Carlton.  When you have unemployment the highest in the nation with the foreclosure rate, do you think people want to see Reid living at one of the most expensive hotel chains in this country?  It will be a squeaker, but I don't think Reid will close it out in Nevada.  

      •  Yeah, I think you are dead wrong on this race. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        That ad was merely a blip. What is getting coverage is Reid's closing ads with major GOP members endorsing him because Angle is too crazy. Major business people all over Nevada are running ads for him saying Angle is too extreme. The only Angle ad generating local coverage is her ads depicting hispanics crossing into the country illegally and taking white people's dreams.

        Reid may not be liked, but Angle's favorability is just as bad.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 05:30:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  AAs and Latinos are undercounted in the LV screen (5+ / 0-)

    In this 50 candidate poll the Hill did they left out AA entirely.. if you can believe that. And we now have evidence that AAs will have 62% turnout, better than anyone, and Latino's motivation has spiked as well.

  •  Baucus Disgust (0+ / 0-)

    "These old Wall Street boys are putting up an awful fight to keep the government from putting a cop on their corner." - Will Rogers

    by Lefty Coaster on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:35:08 PM PDT

  •  Is This Poll Reliable? (4+ / 0-)
    If you read the crosstabs, they are not to be trusted.  Most states do not claim to poll voters under 50.  

    I also tried to find methodology for these polls on how cell phone households are treated on CNN's Web site and the poll's "internals" download.  I could could not see anything.

    If the diary's goal is to motivate Democrats to turn out, perhaps you could use a more reliable poll or rationale to do it with.

    •  Is it that they didn't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      poll those showing as N/A, or that those numbers are included in the totals, but not broken down specifically? At any rate, the crosstabs just look horrible as a report!

      I wouldn't put it past them to skip AA's in KY (well, there's only 7%!) though.

  •  2 Democrats in Kansas didn't stay home (9+ / 0-)

    They came to canvass my neighborhood, drive people to the polls, etc.  They came separately passing literature for Holland and Six.

    We want our pre-existing conditions back - Tea-GOP

    by 88kathy on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:36:02 PM PDT

  •  I think the LV models are wrong (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, wishingwell, Matt Z, aliasalias

    Every Dem I know has already voted and completely dismisses the notion of not voting out of protest. In fact, one progressive friend of mine who I know is very upset with Obama told me you would have to be a complete moron to sit out this election.  She understood, as I think all progressives do, that we have to fight back this right-wing hoard now (i.e., vote) and do our best to make the Dem Party better after the election.

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:37:50 PM PDT

  •  Tired of the harangues on Democratic enthusiasm (4+ / 0-)

    Yes, it would be great if all Democratic registered voters were likely voters.

    And,  leaving all discussions of the Obama administration aside, I would think that Democratic partisans would be able to summon up any amount of enthusiasm you could want at the prospect of voting against GOP/Tea Party nutso reactionaries.

    But the Democratic RV/LV gap is NOT the result of divisions among Democratic activists.

    We need to look at the political sociology of the electorate instead.

    1. Divide the American electorate into tenths by income. The poorest 10 percent votes the most Democratic. As you go up the income scale, each 10 percent slice votes more Republican, and the top 10 percent votes the most Republican.
    1. The poorer 50 percent of the electorate votes more Democratic, and is made up of the poor, the working poor, and working class and lower middle class. These folks are more loosely attached to voting, and often tend not to vote in off-year and other nonpriority elections.
    1. They often don't vote because it's physically difficult for them to do so, If you're juggling two jobs plus childcare, it's hard. And you may well live in an area where GOP voter suppression strategies make it hard to find a polling place, and there may well be long waits, longer than you can deal with. When these groups get slammed by adverse political/economic trends, they tend to drop out of voting. That's partly because pols find it difficult to craft appeals to these voters because programs that would address their needs would necessarily be more radical and, in the pols' view, alienate more established voters/supporters.
    1. By contrast, Republicans come from better off segments of the population. They tend to feel more entitled, and when they get angry, they vote. Moreover, they're often retired/run a small business/have more flexibility in their work, and so find it easier to vote. Note, too, how pols fall all over themselves pitching appeals to "small business" etc. to reach these more conservative segments of the population.
    1. Insofar as the debate about the Obama administration is relevant here, it has to do with what the administration has, or has not, done to motivate the more downscale base of Democratic voters, a harder task in any off-year election. One part of the discussion has to do with the policies the administration had pursued (long debates here), while the other has to do with the lack of attention to publicizing/dramatizing the administration's actual achievements (eg, why even a majority of Democrats believe that TARP was an Obama program).
    1. So: if you want to close the RV/LV gap among Democrats, you have to look at what can educate/motivate/organize them in the face of the long class war pursued by the GOP (and Conservadems) against these folks. Hint: It's NOT constant references to "bipartisanship."
  •  although the idea of Sen. Angle makes me cringe.. (2+ / 0-)

    It might be a good thing to have a new Democratic Party leader in the Senate. The caucus needs to stop choosing leaders from vulnerable states.

    [And to be abundantly clear, I'm pulling for Harry].

  •  I voted - did you? (6+ / 0-)

    Can you vote early? Did you do it? Or mail your ballot like OR & WA?

    CLEAR Act would sell carbon shares to fuel producers and would return 75 percent of the resulting revenue in $1,100 checks to every American.

    by mrobinson on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:40:50 PM PDT

  •  Blanche Lincoln at 43 - haha (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Matt Z, Byblis, Lucy2009

    This is one race I deeply don't care about.

    CLEAR Act would sell carbon shares to fuel producers and would return 75 percent of the resulting revenue in $1,100 checks to every American.

    by mrobinson on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:48:33 PM PDT

  •  kos should definitely FP this (2+ / 0-)

    more doom and gloom (with a touch of unintended hilarity)

    From The Hill :

    Bad news for Dems: Rain in the forecast for 2010 Election Day

    couldnt have a better title

    In more bad news for Democrats, rain is in the forecast for much of the country on Election Day.

    Weather tracking websites, including and The Old Farmer's Almanac, are calling for rain in the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast regions, with chances for precipitation in other parts of the country as well.

    first likely voters now farmers almanac - we cant win !!

    Wendy Schiller, a political science professor at Brown University, echoed Harbridge. "Bad weather almost always hurts Democrats," she said. "The traditional Democratic base tends to include lower-income people and the elderly. Both of those demographic groups have a hard time getting to the polls."

    and i thought the elderly were virulently anti obama and anti democrats .... until of course rain prevents them from voting and they become the democratic base !!

    I am an unabashed supporter of President Obama and ALL Democrats - so deal with it !

    by geeknnerd2 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 03:55:41 PM PDT

  •  What does CNN consider a "likely voter"? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, wishingwell

    I ask this because amongst Registered voters Dems are doing pretty well.

    Jim Manley: "Republicans are making love to Wall Street, while the people on Main Street are getting screwed."

    by Drdemocrat on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:00:39 PM PDT

  •  Harry Reid deserves better (3+ / 0-)

    Harry Reid is not the most exciting guy, but he has always fought for liberal causes. To go down to this horrid race-baiting woman with only 39% of RV's supporting her is just a very sad end to a heroic career.

    John Ensign is up in 2012. It's a good opportunity for a Democrat pick-up in a very tough election year for us.

    Also, I am one of those who don't believe teabaggers will remain in Senate seats for very long.

    You have the crooked ones like Joe Miller already looking for resignation.
    And then you have those like Angle who just don't seem cut out for governing in a purple state.

  •  I'm With You Markos (4+ / 0-)

    I wanted Roosevelt and the bold actions of the 30's and I got a president and congress who put the appearance of bipartisanship over the good of the nation but the alternative makes me sick to my stomach. Guys, I make $36,000 a year and I'm giving money I cannot afford because it can get so much worse. Seriously, people, we have to vote! Please!

    "We can do no great things, only small things with great love." Mother Teresa

    by Pam LaPier on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:04:08 PM PDT

  •  Sorry but those aren't pissed, demoralized voters (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, wishingwell

    Those are a specialiizd, select minority. Those are indifferent voters who really don't follow or understand what is going on and what is likely to happen. I just read yet another biased AP article that quoted some Republican leader – maybe Mitch McConnell — as saying that voters were reacting AGAINST what has been done in the last two years. What utter and complete bullshit, but you know it will be the media mantra. I mean, they want to repeal health care but polls have consistently found that those who don't support the bill divide between people who are against it (based primary on lies0 and those who don't think it went far enough. So most people —  and virtually all informed people — do support health care reform. And tax cuts are going to be their main goal, along with spending cuts that won't even make a dent in what that will rack up, deficit-wise? I'll bet we don't hear a single more word about the deficit after the election if they win. I wonder if the medial will have similar amnesia. Tragically,  I wonder if Democrats will because they are the ones who need to start slamming it then.

    De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08

    by anastasia p on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:07:36 PM PDT

  •  Let's hope the LV models are wrong. (0+ / 0-)
    But if they're not, I'm afraid Pres. Obama may have done a terrible harm to the Democratic Party.  Don't get me wrong, there would be plenty of blame to go around but he's the one with the bully pulpit and he's the one the Republicans are running against.  

    His soft hand, attempted bipartisan, incremental approach has been disastrous.  He needed to take bold steps, call Republican bluffs on filibusters and if they maintained those filibusters take their intransigence the issue before the public, even if it meant losing some issues initially.  Instead, we have watered down enactments that certainly have good elements but have enough bad components that the public ends up hating them.  

    He should have led, not seek consensus from political hacks.

    It almost sickens me to say it, but he has demoralized Democrats and true independents alike.  He's going to have a big hill to climb after this election if these LV models are correct.

    I hate to be pessimistic, but I'm hugely disappointed.

    By the way, while I want Harry Reid to best that nut Angle, there's no way I want him to continue as Majority Leader if the Dems keep the Senate.  Give me someone who can actually put a forceful sentence or two together.    

  •  If ifs and buts were candy and nuts... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ..we'd all have a merry christmas.

    I think it's a given that you can't expect all of any demographic to vote.  Anymore it seems we can't even expect HALF of any demographic to vote.  Which is really sad.

    Will vote for Pie.

    by DawnG on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:14:56 PM PDT

  •  GOVTV can swing, but not that hard (0+ / 0-)

    In the various political organizing trainings I've gone through, the rule of thumb was that a good GOTV operation can account for a swing of a few points - meaning, in close races and close elections, GOTV becomes critical.   However, when the gap is more than a couple of points, its gets really, really hard for GOTV to overcome other fundamentals, whether internal like quality of candidate/opponent & fundraising or external like the state of the economy.

    We are going to lose the House - and possibly the Senate - its just a matter of by how much.  Keeping the margin of loss down is going to be critical for the 2012 elections.  

    And the 2012 elections start - the day after Nov 2, 2010.  Even more Democratic seats in the Senate are up for election than in this cycle.  Plus the White House.  And the nuts will continue to lie, cheat, steal and fearmonger.  Its going to be an ugly two years - especially if we aren't willing to lie, cheat, steal and fearmonger back.

    Our core is voting for us this cycle - its not about our core.  Its about the wishy-washy "independents" who only want to know "what have you done for me lately, and why isn't if free?"  

    And it is, quite frankly, about the seniors.  Seniors have suffered the least in this Recession compared to any other group – the majority live off fixed incomes from Social Security which was almost completely unaffected by the recession (sorry, but not getting a COLA adjustment after years of sizeable COLAs is NOT the end of the world in a deflationary environment).  For those who own a home, the vast majority have the homes paid off, so the mortgage/foreclosure mess has hit them the least.  And they already had decent health insurance via Medicare.  Yet somehow the nuts in the GOP who would love nothing better than to end Social Security and Medicare have convinced seniors that Obama was going to end their Medicare and ship them off to death camps.  Its quite a feat.  

    I just home Obama ditches the bipartisanship and is ready for two years of trench warfare.  No more catfood commissions.  No more Mr. Reasonable.  

    Now is not the time for a circular firing squad when the other side is teabagging you in the face.

    by goblue72 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:20:25 PM PDT

  •  Great diary Kos! (0+ / 0-)

    I'm in the demoralized/pissed-off category. But I did my early voting here in Cali. Voted Dem all the way down the ticket. Just got my daughter-in-law to do the same. She had her gander up and was going to vote Green or Libertarian. I told her I understood her position and why she would do that but the repercussions would be stark and clear.....took a week but she finally saw the light!  Just sent in her early voting ballot, and voted Dem straight down as well.

    Yea, Boehner as Speaker is barf inducing!

    I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Thomas Jefferson

    by Lucy2009 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:22:38 PM PDT

  •  I may be pissed and demoralized, but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    I'm still going to vote for Democrats and encourage others to do the same!

    I can start bitching after the election.

    New improved bipartisanship! Now comes in a convenient suppository!!! -unbozo

    by Unbozo on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 04:40:38 PM PDT

  •  NYT poll says women moving away from Dems (0+ / 0-)

    That's the ballgame right there. The Gender gap is the smallest it has been since 1982.

  •  I think I will (0+ / 0-)

    vomit if this comes to pass:

    NEVADA              LV   RV
    Harry Reid (D)      45   43
    Sharron Angle (R)   49   39

    I don't know much about the WI race but Russ Feingold losing would be a lousy loss of a good guy in my opinion.

    John Boehner as speaker of the house, 2nd in line to the presidency?  That just seems so loony to me.

    If the US citizens gave the party of NO a good swift kick in the arse, that would have been change we could believe in.

  •  Now the job is getting these people back. (0+ / 0-)

    No matter WHAT anyone feels about HCR, Fin Reg, the Democrats, THE DEMOCRATS, have been running away from their own fucking record.  NO DEFENSE, for that one.

    The Democrats sat and let the GOP demoralize HCR, crickets from the Democratic Party and the White House.  Indefensible.

    No plan to wrap and continue to wrap the economy and jobs around the Republicans neck, NO PLAN.

    Communication from the Democratic Party and White House has been atrocious and things MUST CHANGE if they want wins in 2012.

    There is no excuse for people not to vote, but when they don't like either party, then many cancel it out and stay home.

    Barack Obama has a lot of fucking work to do and the Democratic Party better start growing a pair and go after the GOP.  It is no excuse for the GOP to take the House back by doing, "ABSOLUTELY NOTHING".  That is what has happened here and we allowed that sorry ass message to resonate with NO RESPONSE.

    Did the White House think the GOP was going to be their BFF?  Shit they sure have acted like it, by running after votes that they NEVER WAS GOING TO GET.  Have the White House FINALLY found the clue, yet?

    It is too late for Tuesday, but not for 2012.  Democrats better start fucking FIGHTING or 2012 will be miserable as well.

  •  Even when the Republicans lose - (0+ / 0-)

    even when they lose by a wide margin (2008) - they always seem to win.  That's why stopping Boehner et. al. just isn't good enough motivation any more.

  •  18-34 Year Olds and Non-Whites EXCLUDED (5+ / 0-)

    ...from this poll that CNN released today.

    It's a total slap in the face!  Take a look at the inside data on the CNN site and you'll see that people aged 18-34 were completely excluded, as well as non-whites!

    INSULTING!  ...and WRONG!

  •  CNN/Time poll (5+ / 0-)

    Just saw Jon Ralston on the Ed Show regarding that CNN poll.  He says there are so many problems with that polling method that it is inaccurate.

    [Moderator] 2 hours ago
    "The CNN/Time polls have a slight problem"

    That's being charitable—it's completely worthless. Not only does it list NO responses from anyone under 50 for both Colorado and Nevada—a serious enough flaw as it is—it has NO responses from non-whites in Nevada. So, ONLY WHITES OVER THE AGE OF 50 were polled, and only landline homes at that. Guess what right-wing media entity's demographic that fits very neatly into?

    One should then question all their results.

  •  Ralston is saying that the CNN poll is all (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Matt Z

    screwed up.  He said it oversampled Independents.

    Jim Manley: "Republicans are making love to Wall Street, while the people on Main Street are getting screwed."

    by Drdemocrat on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 05:19:54 PM PDT

  •  For those of you who plan to not vote (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Listen to the replay of Keith Olbermann's special report from tonight's broadcast.  Then decide.

  •  CNN: Great news (0+ / 0-)

    no, really these #'s are great news..The LA Times AND PPP have Brown up by double digits but CNN has him up
    by only 7...somehow I trust the LA Times and PPP a little more than CNN when it comes to presenting an objective picture of this election. Given that, one can count on the CNN LV screen being much less favorable to Dems. than LAT and PPP and somewhat skewed to favor reps...I say with any decent turnout these #'s validate my position the Reid, Bennett and Sestak will all win on 11/03. P.S. WTF was up with that Aqua Buddha ad anyway...whoever was behind that should be looking for a job

  •  Pissed and demoralized (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    From the post:

    I'm with those who think progressives are justified in being pissed and demoralized.

    What is it exactly that justifies the anger of progressives? Was it passing health care reform that gives progressively larger subsidies to those least able to pay? Getting top military brass on board to begin the dismantling of DODT, which is no longer enforced? Was it appointing Elizabeth Warren to set up the Consumer Protection Bureau? Or maybe it's the wealth of government data being made accessible to anyone under the open government initiative:

    •  the bungling of the economy - and yes it was a (0+ / 0-)

      bungling, both as policy and as politics (by focusing on Wall Street in the face of 10% unemployment, the economic populism message was incomprehensibly ceded to the TP'ers!) ... and pretty much entire war on terror and associated escalation in Afghanistan and re-branding of Iraq.  The needless pandering and hair splitting with DADT and DOMA - both things with significant human cost. (the non-enforcement of DADT I believe was a matter of issue until the DoJ decided to appeal, a condition which lasted about a day).  Also a commitment to a lack of government transparency in areas that matter, such as attitude towards whistleblowers or the shadow of the night catfood commission.  

      The administration has done some good things - and certainly Democrats > Republicans by any sort of metric.  That is not being argued at all, remotely.

      That said, Progressives, who have been almost totally vindicated in all of these issues, still watch as the Democratic leadership listen to same old hacks give them advice on these matters.  There are a surprising number of areas where the administration is awfully conservative.  

      •  Bungling (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        ... by focusing on Wall Street in the face of 10% unemployment, the economic populism message was incomprehensibly ceded to the TP'ers!

        Saving banks saved jobs. There were 140 bank failures in 2009, and we're on track to have even more in 2010. If the TARP hadn't been used to save "Wall Street", losses would have cascaded through the economy and then the self-indulgent progressives would know what "bungling" means. In any case, governing in any real world involves compromises and choices, a fact that certain progressives seem to be ignorant of, or perhaps just willfully blind to.

        •  When stimulus was about 30% of what was necessary (0+ / 0-)

          ... (and mostly in the form of tax cuts, not direct investment) and the administration is pretending that is not in fact the case - and somehow inexplicably focusing on "tightening the belt" and channeling Jon Boehner ... the Japanese lost decade is staring us in the face.  When the President's own picks for the catfood commission (5 of the 6) are noted entitlement gutting enthusiasts - when deficit reduction is the last thing that this economy needs.  

          When the administration pretends that they got exactly the stimulus that was necessary - instead of blaming the Republicans (correctly) for that there is not more - obviously folks will find that view disconnected from reality.  And will turn to whatever, because there is real suffering that is outside the Village obsessed spin machine.

          Progressive dismay is not about that change has not come fast enough - it is about how conservative claptrap still gets the conch (with the President often carrying the message) despite near total repuditation by empirical results.

          That we should work to keep the GOP out of power is not remotely a question here.  

    •  People Didn't Get Exactly What They Wanted . . . (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      When they wanted it - yesterday. We progressives are supposed to be smart people, but we are incredibly ignorant when it comes to history. It took women and African-Americans decades, if not centuries to gain the right to vote. Social Security wasn't ideal when it was first passed. It took another 20-30 years to make it better. Progressives here don't understand that significant, meaningful change takes time. The label "Progressive" is kind of ironic in the fact that it implies "progress," which happens over time. These people bitcing should change their label to "impatients."

      I don't want an Oompa-Loompa as Speaker of the House.

      by kefauver on Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 12:58:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If men were angels (0+ / 0-)

    we wouldn't need government...

    For the elite there are no material problems, only PR problems. Time for a new elite.

    by Paul Goodman on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 06:33:43 PM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site