Nothing can be proven. But that's not the point. The question is: What is the wise course for public policy?
As a New Englander with ties to Vermont I am caught up in the heated political season there, in which the Republican gubernatorial campaign of Brian Dubie and the Republican Governors Association are being charged with playing fast and loose with campaign finance and coordination rules to gain the advantage in a tight race, and the Democratic attorney general dismissing the case far too soon for many Democrats, leaving people wondering whose side he is on.
The real story, however, is the hot button issue which is in the middle of the state's gubernatorial and other races, the fate of the nearly 50-year-old VT Yankee nuclear power station, which a vote of the State Senate determined would not be offered the chance to renew its license for another 20 years. This is given a history of lying to state oversight panels about things like buried pipes leaking radioactive tritium,
unauthorized radiation emission increases, and a host of other issues including the now-famous cooling tower collapse, in a photo taken by activists who penetrated the property which made the nuclear industry none too happy. The collapse was determined to have fallen out of sheer, dumb neglect, rotted lumber and corroded bolts to be exact.
On the buried pipes,the NY Times reports
Plant officials had testified under oath to two state panels that there were no buried pipes at Vermont Yankee that could leak tritium, although there were. No tritium has turned up in drinking water.
Now, months after this article was written,tritium HAS turned up in the drinking water.
Now yet another problem has been uncovered: in three types of cancer which have been found to have strong links to nuclear radiation, VT is sky high. In skin cancer VT is number one in the nation in data combined between 2002 and 2006, male and female. In thyroid cancer, women in VT have experienced a 400% increase in the years from 1996 to 2005, which is twice the national rate of increase among women overall. In pediatric cancer (cancer of all types in children ages 0-19,) VT is number one in data combined from 1999 to 2005.
While nothing can be proven in terms of cause and effect, it is reasonable to say there may be a connection. More worrisome, however, is an apparent effort by the VT Public Health Department and the present attorney general to hide the problem. Attorney General Bill Sorrell in a debate last month said with regard to cancer in VT, the state "does not have a bad story to tell." (about 26 minutes into this VT NPR audio.) The Progressive candidate, Charlotte Dennett, has made a radio commercial spotlighting the statement here.
And although defenders of Yankee point out that cancer rates are lower right next to the plant than in some counties further away, it is well-known that radiation is wind and water-borne, and does not conform to any localized pattern of illnesses.
The official report by which the health department evaluates radiation-related cancers is the annual Yankee Surveillance Report. The 2008 VT Yankee Surveillance Report states: "The incidence rates for invasive thyroid cancer and leukemia is not different from Vermont, Windham County, or the U.S. white population."
2008 Vermont Yankee Surveillance Report
However, in data unearthed by another attorney general candidate, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC,) VT has experienced increase in thyroid cancer in women which is double the national average between the years 1996 to 2005. As the below data shows, thyroid cancer in VT women has increased 400% between these years (from 15 cases per 100,000 in population in 1996 to 66 in 2005) while nationally the increase has been about 200% in American women (from 10.4 per 100,000 in population to 17.7.) The document is one which is closely held by the Department of Public Health, in its own letterhead, obtained and released by a VT nurse to the Dennett campaign.
The health department seems to reach its own conclusion by citing the data for both men and women, which pulls the average down. When the data for women is examined separately, we see women in VT have shown an extraordinarily high increase in the thyroid cancer rate, double the national increase.
The passage stating that "the rate of cancer incidence in the six towns near Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Station (Brattleboro, Dummerston, Guilford, Halifax, Marlboro and Vernon) is lower than rates in Windham County, the State of Vermont, and the United States white population as a whole." This seems to imply that if radiation were a danger, cancer rates would be higher near the station. But this is not a valid conclusion, as it is well-known that radioactive particles follow wind and water patterns, and radiation-caused cancers can be found in locations which are distant from the plant. Over a small geographic area, there is little direct correlation between distance from the radiation source and cancers.
On pediatric cancer the 2008 Surveillance Report states: "The pediatric cancer incidence rate in Windham County...was calculated and is not different from Vermont and the United States white population as a whole."
2008 VT Yankee Surveillance Report
But between 1999 and 2005, VT had the highest incidence rate of pediatric cancer (all cancers in children between ages 0 to 19) in the nation.
Pediatric cancers, VT, source: Centers for Disease Control
The 2008 Surveillance Report makes no mention of skin cancer, another type of radiation-linked cancer. But between 2002 and 2006 VT has the highest incidence in the nation. New Hampshire, which also borders Yankee, is number two.
Vt skin cancer, source: Centers for Disease Control
On Cancer and Radiation
The American Cancer Society (ACS) explains "ionizing radiation" from gamma rays which are emitted by nuclear reactions:
"Ionizing radiation has enough energy to knock electrons off of atoms or molecules. This is called ionization. Ionized molecules are unstable and quickly undergo chemical changes. If ionizing radiation passes through a cell in the body, it can lead to mutations (changes) in the cell's DNA, the part of the cell that contains its genes (blueprints). This could contribute to cancer, or to the death of the cell. The amount of damage in the cell is related to the dose of radiation it receives. The damage takes place in only a fraction of a second, but other changes such as the beginning of cancer may take years to develop."
The ACS further notes:
"most scientists and regulatory agencies agree that even small doses of ionizing radiation increase cancer risk, although by a very small amount. In general, the risk of cancer from radiation exposure increases as the dose of radiation increases. Likewise, the lower the exposure is, the smaller the increase in risk. But there is no threshold below which ionizing radiation is thought to be totally safe"
The gubernatorial candidates previously took opposite positions on the closing of Yankee, with Democrat Peter Shumlin saying the plant should be decommission in 2012 as now scheduled, and Dubie wanting to give Yankee a new lease on life, citing its 600 jobs. The statewide candidate pushing hardest for closure, Attorney General candidate Charlotte Dennett, has made it her business to press the cancer issue as an argument for closing the plant, based on sheer prudence. When nothing can be proven but a pattern can be seen with worrisome, known correlations, she argues that it is simply better to err on the side of caution.