Today’s edition of the Senate Snapshot features the return of the alternate, Rasmussen-free Snapshot.
This was prompted by Nate Silver’s recent article about how automated pollsters have a distinct GOP-bias. What was really eye-popping was not so much the pro-Republican “house effect” among these pollsters. But that Rasmussen had 30% of all polls conducted in 2010. Talk about poll spam.
Senate competitive campaigns chart, all polls
Margins are based on the simple average of all published polls in which the majority of interviews were conducted on or after October 8th. No polls will be removed form the averages between now and Election Day. Only campaigns closer than 12.0% are listed. All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com. Click here for the Senate Snapshot methodology.
Seat outcome odds chart, all polls
Even though Democrats only lead in 51 seats, given narrow Republican leads in Illinois, Nevada, Colorado and Pennsylvania, 52 Democratic seats is the most likely outcome.
Senate competitive campaigns chart, no Rasmussen
Seat outcome odds chart, no Rasmussen polls
The most likely outcome in both projections is 52 seats. The two most noticeable differences are:
- The second most likely outcome in the Snapshot with all polls is 51, while the second most likely outcome in the non-Rasmussen Snapshot is 53.
- Republican chances of winning the Senate all but disappear from the Rasmussen-free Snapshot.
But, those are really distinctions without differences. The most likely outcome is the same in both Snapshots, and the overall projection is the most likely outcome.
The next, and final, Senate Snapshot will appear on Monday evening. On Sunday, I will have a Governor Snapshot.
I sure as hell hope I wrong. We need a lot more than 52 seats. The outer edge of the realistic--55--looks alright.
Time to get back to work, hoping to prove myself wrong. GOTV.