Wind shear has weakened Hurricane Thomas to a minimal 75mph storm, but new track models forecast Thomas is heading towards Haiti. Hundreds of thousands of Haitian earthquake survivors struggling to survive in tents now face an approaching hurricane. A cholera outbreak caused by sewage tainted water supplies could spread disastrously if the storm hits Haiti's tent cities and impoverished rural villages.
The NHC forecasts hurricane Tomas to hit Haiti near Port au Prince Friday afternoon with winds over 100mph.
Haiti, which has barely begun to recover from the earthquake is not prepared to face a hurricane or even a tropical storm, but Tomas is forecast to turn towards Haiti Thursday afternoon. Even a weakened Tomas could cause disaster in cholera affected villages and tent cities by spreading cholera through contaminated flood waters. Because cholera is now established in Haiti, it will likely take years to eradicate. Tomas could make the bad situation far worse.
Multispectral false color satellite imagery reveals yellow low clouds south west of blue high clouds in Tomas, showing that wind shear is weakening the hurricane.
A large upper atmospheric wave is forecast to turn Tomas north towards Haiti on Thursday afternoon.
The hurricane center forecasts that shear will weaken and Tomas will reintensify as it moves towards Haiti. Near record warm Caribbean waters that are above 26 Celsius (80 degrees F) at a depth of 100 meters (330 feet) will support rapid reintensification if atmospheric conditions are favorable.
There is a strong model consensus that Tomas will turn north. Fine details, which cannot be forecast 5 days ahead will determine whether Haiti suffers another major disaster.
Public health officials have installed large water bladders near tent cities to provide clean cholera free water.
However, the tents and improvised clean water supplies won't likely survive a hurricane. Tomas could trigger a catastrophic health crisis.
The official forecast is very concerning.
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND IS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BRINGING TOMAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS... THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE TOMAS REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND AND SHOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY RANGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.4N 64.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 66.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 68.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 69.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 71.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 72.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 73.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W 90 KT...INLAND
Partners in Health in Haiti is fighting cholera, but they need your help. Please click this link and donate.
Request for donations by Joia Mukherjee, Chief Medical Officer Partners In Health
The Partners In Health team in Haiti, Zanmi Lasante, continues to respond to the cholera outbreak, as hundreds of critically ill patients arrive every day at the Ministry of Health facilities we support.
To treat the large volume of patients ill with cholera who continue streaming into the clinics, and to ensure high-quality care 24 hours a day, we are rapidly hiring additional Haitian doctors and nurses. Prevention through community outreach remains key to containing the epidemic. PIH/ZL is bolstering its force of more than 2,000 community health workers - including those in the camps we serve in Port-au-Prince - with training in hygiene and infection control. Community health workers are also being supplied with the tools to prevent infection, such as soap and water purification tablets, as well as oral rehydration salts for treatment of early symptoms.
And despite focused efforts, Zanmi Lasante and other organizations remain concerned about access to clean water, both in Port-au-Prince where conditions of overcrowding and squalor continue, and in rural communities where rivers and rain runoff are the only available water sources.
This cholera outbreak is a tragic example of how disease takes root in poor communities, an example that reinforces PIH's deep commitment to treating the sick while simultaneously working to address basic rights such as water, housing and sanitation. It is work carried out and constantly improved by engaging people who themselves are suffering these indignities, and by forging a bond of solidarity and support between them and others who understand this grass roots approach to addressing health and its social determinants.
Our mission is not simply to respond to these crises but to work toward averting them through an approach rooted in solidarity and assuring human dignity. That's why PIH exists, and why I work here. It's why you support this organization.
Update on Haiti's cholera outbreak from the comments. Kudos to Zaka 1.
from RSOE EDIS information site:
Situation Update No. 13
On 29.10.2010 at 17:54 GMT+2
The outbreak of cholera in Haiti has so far claimed 313 lives, according to the latest data provided Friday by the country's health officials. Around 4,800 other people are believed to be infected with the serious intestinal disease. Ten days after the outbreak was officially confirmed, and despite the efforts of aid organizations in Haiti, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned earlier Friday in Geneva that the situation in the Caribbean country was still expected to get worse before it gets better. "Everyday we get up to eight new cases," said Caroline Klein, spokeswoman for Humedica. The aid organization Humedica is active in the town of Drouin, in the central Haitian area affected by the cholera, and has set up a treatment centre for those suffering from the disease, where more than 1,000 people are being cared for. The number of deaths and infections is rising more slowly than when the outbreak was first confirmed, although sick people are still coming in from villages which had previously been considered cholera-free. Haiti was the poorest country in the Americas even before suffering in January a quake that killed more than 220,000 people and ravaged much of the country, especially the capital, Port-au-Prince. The outbreak of cholera was confirmed on October 19 in the area around the Artibonite river. Haiti had not had an outbreak of cholera for decades.