The vote counting isn't done yet, but it's on a trajectory that the Oregon punditry feels confident in predicting that Kitzhaber will take it. And that's just what The Oregonian is doing.
Although Republican Chris Dudley continues to hold a slim lead, mathematical calculations based on statewide voting trends show Kitzhaber is likely to overtake him and win by about 10,000 votes out of 1.4 million cast. The newspaper’s projections show Kitzhaber winning by 49 percent to 48 percent, which is outside the margin for automatic recount.
The latest results from Multnomah County, where Kitzhaber has gotten 70 percent of the vote, show Dudley’s lead has narrowed to about half of a percent and will be reversed once the remaining 75,000 ballots from Multnomah and Democrat-heavy Lane County are tallied.
Josh Kardon, Oregon political expert and Wyden staffer, tweets that Dudley doesn't have "the usual Republican vote suppression team on hand at Mult Co elections" and has probably given up the ghost. So, tentative congratulations to Gov. John Kitzhaber on his third term.
Update: The DGA sends this statement:
Washington, D.C. – Gov. Jack Markell, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, issued the following statement today regarding Democrat John Kitzhaber’s victory in the Oregon gubernatorial election.
"In the worst political environment since 1994, Governor-Elect John Kitzhaber overcame the national wave and massive spending by the GOP to clinch a victory today. John ran an impressive grassroots campaign focused on the pragmatic solutions for the problems the people of Oregon face every day, like creating and saving jobs. We congratulate him on his victory, and look forward to working with him to move this nation and Oregon forward in these tough times."